Statistical Learning
Counterfactual reasoning: an analysis of in-context emergence
Large-scale neural language models exhibit remarkable performance in in-context learning: the ability to learn and reason about the input context on the fly. This work studies in-context counterfactual reasoning in language models, that is, the ability to predict consequences of a hypothetical scenario. We focus on a well-defined, synthetic linear regression task that requires noise abduction. Accurate prediction is based on (1) inferring an unobserved latent concept and (2) copying contextual noise from factual observations. We show that language models are capable of counterfactual reasoning. Further, we enhance existing identifiability results and reduce counterfactual reasoning for a broad class of functions to a transformation on in-context observations.
Learning to Insert for Constructive Neural Vehicle Routing Solver
Neural Combinatorial Optimisation (NCO) is a promising learning-based approach for solving Vehicle Routing Problems (VRPs) without extensive manual design. While existing constructive NCO methods typically follow an appending-based paradigm that sequentially adds unvisited nodes to partial solutions, this rigid approach often leads to suboptimal results. To overcome this limitation, we explore the idea of the insertion-based paradigm and propose Learning to Construct with Insertion-based Paradigm (L2C-Insert), a novel learning-based method for constructive NCO. Unlike traditional approaches, L2C-Insert builds solutions by strategically inserting unvisited nodes at any valid position in the current partial solution, which can significantly enhance the flexibility and solution quality. The proposed framework introduces three key components: a novel model architecture for precise insertion position prediction, an efficient training scheme for model optimization, and an advanced inference technique that fully exploits the insertion paradigm's flexibility. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world instances of the Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) and Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP) demonstrate that L2C-Insert consistently achieves superior performance across various problem sizes.
KAIROS: Scalable Model-Agnostic Data Valuation
Data valuation techniques quantify each training example's contribution to model performance, providing a principled basis for data cleaning, acquisition, and selection. Existing valuation methods remain inadequate: model-based techniques depend on a single fitted model and inherit its biases, while algorithm-based approaches like Data Shapley scale poorly due to their need to train multiple models. Recent work has proposed model-agnostic alternatives based on Wasserstein distance between the training set and a clean reference set, but exact computation is expensive and approximations often misrank examples. We introduce KAIROS, a model-agnostic framework that values examples by their contribution to the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) between the training set and a clean reference distribution. Unlike Wasserstein methods, MMD admits a closed-form solution that requires no approximations and is scalable to large datasets. Additionally, KAIROS enables efficient online valuation: adding a new batch of m examples requires only O(mN)computation to update all scores, compared to O(N2)in prior work where N is the training set size. Empirical evaluations on noise, mislabeling, and poisoning benchmarks show that KAIROS consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both accuracy and runtime. On ImageNet, KAIROS achieves up to 15 speedup over the fastest baseline while maintaining superior data valuation quality. Our results demonstrate that model-agnostic methods can match or exceed model-based approaches in performance while scaling to large datasets.
Bridging Brains and Concepts: Interpretable Visual Decoding from fMRI with Semantic Bottlenecks
Decoding of visual stimuli from noninvasive neuroimaging techniques such as functional magnetic resonance (fMRI) has advanced rapidly in the last years; yet, most high-performing brain decoding models rely on complicated, non-interpretable latent spaces. In this study we present an interpretable brain decoding framework that inserts a semantic bottleneck into BrainDiffuser, a well established, simple and linear decoding pipeline. We firstly produce a 214 dimensional binary interpretable space L for images, in which each dimension answers to a specific question about the image (e.g., "Is there a person?",
Stochastic Gradients under Nuisances
Stochastic gradient optimization is the dominant learning paradigm for a variety of scenarios, from classical supervised learning to modern self-supervised learning. We consider stochastic gradient algorithms for learning problems whose objectives rely on unknown nuisance parameters, and establish non-asymptotic convergence guarantees. Our results show that, while the presence of a nuisance can alter the optimum and upset the optimization trajectory, the classical stochastic gradient algorithm may still converge under appropriate conditions, such as Neyman orthogonality. Moreover, even when Neyman orthogonality is not satisfied, we show that an algorithm variant with approximately orthogonalized updates (with an approximately orthogonalized gradient oracle) may achieve similar convergence rates. Examples from orthogonal statistical learning/double machine learning and causal inference are discussed.
FedQS: Optimizing Gradient and Model Aggregation for Semi-Asynchronous Federated Learning
Federated learning (FL) enables collaborative model training across multiple parties without sharing raw data, with semi-asynchronous FL (SAFL) emerging as a balanced approach between synchronous and asynchronous FL. However, SAFL faces significant challenges in optimizing both gradient-based (e.g., FedSGD) and model-based (e.g., FedAvg) aggregation strategies, which exhibit distinct trade-offs in accuracy, convergence speed, and stability. While gradient aggregation achieves faster convergence and higher accuracy, it suffers from pronounced fluctuations, whereas model aggregation offers greater stability but slower convergence and suboptimal accuracy. This paper presents FedQS, the first framework to theoretically analyze and address these disparities in SAFL. FedQS introduces a divide-andconquer strategy to handle client heterogeneity by classifying clients into four distinct types and adaptively optimizing their local training based on data distribution characteristics and available computational resources. Extensive experiments on computer vision, natural language processing, and real-world tasks demonstrate that FedQS achieves the highest accuracy, attains the lowest loss, and ranks among the fastest in convergence speed, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines.
ZEUS: Zero-shot Embeddings for Unsupervised Separation of Tabular Data
Clustering tabular data remains a significant open challenge in data analysis and machine learning. Unlike for image data, similarity between tabular records often varies across datasets, making the definition of clusters highly dataset-dependent. Furthermore, the absence of supervised signals complicates hyperparameter tuning in deep learning clustering methods, frequently resulting in unstable performance. To address these issues and reduce the need for per-dataset tuning, we adopt an emerging approach in deep learning: zero-shot learning. We propose ZEUS, a selfcontained model capable of clustering new datasets without any additional training or fine-tuning. It operates by decomposing complex datasets into meaningful components that can then be clustered effectively. Thanks to pre-training on synthetic datasets generated from a latent-variable prior, it generalizes across various datasets without requiring user intervention. To the best of our knowledge, ZEUS is the first zero-shot method capable of generating embeddings for tabular data in a fully unsupervised manner. Experimental results demonstrate that it performs on par with or better than traditional clustering algorithms and recent deep learning-based methods, while being significantly faster and more user-friendly.
Co-Regularization Enhances Knowledge Transfer in High Dimensions
Most existing transfer learning algorithms for high-dimensional models employ a two-step regularization framework, whose success heavily hinges on the assumption that the pre-trained model closely resembles the target. To relax this assumption, we propose a co-regularization process to directly exploit beneficial knowledge from the source domain for high-dimensional generalized linear models. The proposed method learns the target parameter by constraining the source parameters to be close to the target one, thereby preventing fine-tuning failures caused by significantly deviated pre-trained parameters. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that the proposed method accommodates a broader range of sources than existing two-step frameworks, thus being more robust to less similar sources. Its effectiveness is validated through extensive empirical studies.
True Impact of Cascade Length in Contextual Cascading Bandits
We revisit the contextual cascading bandit, where a learning agent recommends an ordered list (cascade) of items, and a user scans the list sequentially, stopping at the first attractive item. Although cascading bandits underpin various applications including recommender systems and search engines, the role of the cascade length K in shaping regret has remained unclear. Contrary to prior results that regret grows with K, we prove that regret actually decreases once K is large enough. Leveraging this insight, we design a new upper-confidence-bound algorithm built on online mirror descent that attains the sharpest known regret upper bound, O min{K pK 1,1}d Tfor contextual cascading bandits. To complement this new regret upper bound, we provide a nearly matching lower bound of Ω min{KpK 1,1}d T, where 0 p p < 1. Together, these results fully characterize how regret truly scales with K, thereby closing the theoretical gap for contextual cascading bandits. Finally, comprehensive experiments validate our theoretical results and show the effectiveness of our proposed method.
Differentially Private Relational Learning with Entity-level Privacy Guarantees
Learning with relational and network-structured data is increasingly vital in sensitive domains where protecting the privacy of individual entities is paramount. Differential Privacy (DP) offers a principled approach for quantifying privacy risks, with DP-SGD emerging as a standard mechanism for private model training. However, directly applying DP-SGD to relational learning is challenging due to two key factors: (i) entities often participate in multiple relations, resulting in high and difficult-to-control sensitivity; and (ii) relational learning typically involves multistage, potentially coupled (interdependent) sampling procedures that make standard privacy amplification analyses inapplicable. This work presents a principled framework for relational learning with formal entity-level DP guarantees. We provide a rigorous sensitivity analysis and introduce an adaptive gradient clipping scheme that modulates clipping thresholds based on entity occurrence frequency. We also extend the privacy amplification results to a tractable subclass of coupled sampling, where the dependence arises only through sample sizes. These contributions lead to a tailored DP-SGD variant for relational data with provable privacy guarantees. Experiments on fine-tuning text encoders over text-attributed network-structured relational data demonstrate the strong utility-privacy trade-offs of our approach.