Over the past few years, the notion of stability in data clustering has received growing attention as a cluster validation criterion in a sample-based framework. However, recent work has shown that as the sample size increases, any clustering model will usually become asymptotically stable. This led to the conclusion that stability is lacking as a theoretical and practical tool. The discrepancy between this conclusion and the success of stability in practice has remained an open ques- tion, which we attempt to address. Our theoretical approach is that stability, as used by cluster validation algorithms, is similar in certain respects to measures of generalization in a model-selection framework.

We construct a biologically motivated stochastic differential model of the neural and hemodynamic activity underlying the observed Blood Oxygen Level Dependent (BOLD) signal in Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI). The model poses a difficult parameter estimation problem, both theoretically due to the nonlinearity and divergence of the differential system, and computationally due to its time and space complexity. We adapt a particle filter and smoother to the task, and discuss some of the practical approaches used to tackle the difficulties, including use of sparse matrices and parallelisation. Results demonstrate the tractability of the approach in its application to an effective connectivity study.

We present four new reinforcement learning algorithms based on actor-critic and natural-gradient ideas, and provide their convergence proofs. Actor-critic rein- forcement learning methods are online approximations to policy iteration in which the value-function parameters are estimated using temporal difference learning and the policy parameters are updated by stochastic gradient descent. Methods based on policy gradients in this way are of special interest because of their com- patibility with function approximation methods, which are needed to handle large or in(cid:2)nite state spaces. The use of temporal difference learning in this way is of interest because in many applications it dramatically reduces the variance of the gradient estimates. The use of the natural gradient is of interest because it can produce better conditioned parameterizations and has been shown to further re- duce variance in some cases.

Reliably recovering 3D human pose from monocular video requires constraints that bias the estimates towards typical human poses and motions. We define priors for people tracking using a Laplacian Eigenmaps Latent Variable Model (LELVM). LELVM is a probabilistic dimensionality reduction model that naturally combines the advantages of latent variable models---definining a multimodal probability density for latent and observed variables, and globally differentiable nonlinear mappings for reconstruction and dimensionality reduction---with those of spectral manifold learning methods---no local optima, ability to unfold highly nonlinear manifolds, and good practical scaling to latent spaces of high dimension. LELVM is computationally efficient, simple to learn from sparse training data, and compatible with standard probabilistic trackers such as particle filters. We analyze the performance of a LELVM-based probabilistic sigma point mixture tracker in several real and synthetic human motion sequences and demonstrate that LELVM provides sufficient constraints for robust operation in the presence of missing, noisy and ambiguous image measurements.

Maximum variance unfolding (MVU) is an effective heuristic for dimensionality reduction. It produces a low-dimensional representation of the data by maximiz- ing the variance of their embeddings while preserving the local distances of the original data. We show that MVU also optimizes a statistical dependence measure which aims to retain the identity of individual observations under the distance- preserving constraints. This general view allows us to design "colored" variants of MVU, which produce low-dimensional representations for a given task, e.g.

Clustering is often formulated as the maximum likelihood estimation of a mixture model that explains the data. The EM algorithm widely used to solve the resulting optimization problem is inherently a gradient-descent method and is sensitive to initialization. The resulting solution is a local optimum in the neighborhood of the initial guess. This sensitivity to initialization presents a significant challenge in clustering large data sets into many clusters. In this paper, we present a dif- ferent approach to approximate mixture fitting for clustering.

A recently proposed formulation of the stochastic planning and control problem as one of parameter estimation for suitable artificial statistical models has led to the adoption of inference algorithms for this notoriously hard problem. At the algorithmic level, the focus has been on developing Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms. In this paper, we begin by making the crucial observation that the stochastic control problem can be reinterpreted as one of trans-dimensional inference. With this new interpretation, we are able to propose a novel reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that is more efficient than its EM counterparts. Moreover, it enables us to implement full Bayesian policy search, without the need for gradients and with one single Markov chain.

We present a simple new criterion for classification, based on principles from lossy data compression. The criterion assigns a test sample to the class that uses the min- imum number of additional bits to code the test sample, subject to an allowable distortion. We prove asymptotic optimality of this criterion for Gaussian data and analyze its relationships to classical classifiers. Theoretical results provide new insights into relationships among popular classifiers such as MAP and RDA, as well as unsupervised clustering methods based on lossy compression [13]. Mini- mizing the lossy coding length induces a regularization effect which stabilizes the (implicit) density estimate in a small-sample setting.

In this paper, we show that classical survival analysis involving censored data can naturally be cast as a ranking problem. The concordance index (CI), which quantifies the quality of rankings, is the standard performance measure for model \emph{assessment} in survival analysis. In contrast, the standard approach to \emph{learning} the popular proportional hazard (PH) model is based on Cox's partial likelihood. In this paper we devise two bounds on CI--one of which emerges directly from the properties of PH models--and optimize them \emph{directly}. Our experimental results suggest that both methods perform about equally well, with our new approach giving slightly better results than the Cox's method.

We introduce a new Bayesian model for hierarchical clustering based on a prior over trees called Kingman's coalescent. We develop novel greedy and sequential Monte Carlo inferences which operate in a bottom-up agglomerative fashion. We show experimentally the superiority of our algorithms over the state-of-the-art, and demonstrate our approach in document clustering and phylolinguistics.