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 Statistical Learning


Sharper Convergence Rates for Nonconvex Optimisation via Reduction Mappings

Neural Information Processing Systems

When this structure is known, at least locally, it can be exploited through reduction mappings that reparametrise part of the parameter space to lie on the solution manifold. These reductions naturally arise from inner optimisation problems and effectively remove redundant directions, yielding a lowerdimensional objective. In this work, we introduce a general framework to understand how such reductions influence the optimisation landscape. We show that well-designed reduction mappings improve curvature properties of the objective, leading to better-conditioned problems and theoretically faster convergence for gradient-based methods. Our analysis unifies a range of scenarios where structural information at optimality is leveraged to accelerate convergence, offering a principled explanation for the empirical gains observed in such optimisation algorithms.


Causal Climate Emulation with Bayesian Filtering

Neural Information Processing Systems

Traditional models of climate change use complex systems of coupled equations to simulate physical processes across the Earth system. These simulations are highly computationally expensive, limiting our predictions of climate change and analyses of its causes and effects. Machine learning has the potential to quickly emulate data from climate models, but current approaches are not able to incorporate physicallybased causal relationships. Here, we develop an interpretable climate model emulator based on causal representation learning. We derive a novel approach including a Bayesian filter for stable long-term autoregressive emulation. We demonstrate that our emulator learns accurate climate dynamics, and we show the importance of each one of its components on a realistic synthetic dataset and data from two widely deployed climate models.


Incomplete Multi-view Deep Clustering with Data Imputation and Alignment

Neural Information Processing Systems

Incomplete multi-view deep clustering is an emerging research hot-pot to incorporate data information of multiple sources or modalities when parts of them are missing. Most of existing approaches encode the available data observations into multiple view-specific latent representations and subsequently integrate them for the next clustering task. However, they ignore that the latent representations are unique to a fixed set of data samples in all views. Meanwhile, the pair-wise similarities of missing data observations are also failed to utilize in latent representation learning sufficiently, leading to unsatisfactory clustering performance. To address these issues, we propose an incomplete multi-view deep clustering method with data imputation and alignment.


TopER: Topological Embeddings in Graph Representation Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Graph embeddings play a critical role in graph representation learning, allowing machine learning models to explore and interpret graph-structured data. However, existing methods often rely on opaque, high-dimensional embeddings, limiting interpretability and practical visualization. In this work, we introduce Topological Evolution Rate (TopER), a novel, lowdimensional embedding approach grounded in topological data analysis.


AutoSciDACT: Automated Scientific Discovery through Contrastive Embedding and Hypothesis Testing

Neural Information Processing Systems

Novelty detection in large scientific datasets faces two key challenges: the noisy and high-dimensional nature of experimental data, and the necessity of making statistically robust statements about any observed outliers. While there is a wealth of literature on anomaly detection via dimensionality reduction, most methods do not produce outputs compatible with quantifiable claims of scientific discovery. In this work we directly address these challenges, presenting the first step towards a unified pipeline for novelty detection adapted for the rigorous statistical demands of science. We introduce AutoSciDACT (Automated Scientific Discovery with Anomalous Contrastive Testing), a general-purpose pipeline for detecting novelty in scientific data. AutoSciDACT begins by creating expressive low-dimensional data representations using a contrastive pre-training, leveraging the abundance of highquality simulated data in many scientific domains alongside expertise that can guide principled data augmentation strategies. These compact embeddings then enable an extremely sensitive machine learning-based two-sample test using the New Physics Learning Machine (NPLM) framework, which identifies and statistically quantifies deviations in observed data relative to a reference distribution (null hypothesis). We perform experiments across a range of astronomical, physical, biological, image, and synthetic datasets, demonstrating strong sensitivity to small injections of anomalous data across all domains.


FlashMD long stride universal prediction of molecular dynamics

Neural Information Processing Systems

Molecular dynamics (MD) provides insights into atomic-scale processes by integrating over time the equations that describe the motion of atoms under the action of interatomic forces. Machine learning models have substantially accelerated MD by providing inexpensive predictions of the forces, but they remain constrained to minuscule time integration steps, which are required by the fast time scale of atomic motion. In this work, we propose FlashMD, a method to predict the evolution of positions and momenta over strides that are between one and two orders of magnitude longer than typical MD time steps. We incorporate considerations on the mathematical and physical properties of Hamiltonian dynamics in the architecture, generalize the approach to allow the simulation of any thermodynamic ensemble, and carefully assess the possible failure modes of such a long-stride MD approach. We validate FlashMD's accuracy in reproducing equilibrium and time-dependent properties, using both system-specific and general-purpose models, extending the ability of MD simulation to reach the long time scales needed to model microscopic processes of high scientific and technological relevance.


Tensor Decomposition Networks for Fast Machine Learning Interatomic Potential Computations

Neural Information Processing Systems

SO(3)-equivariant networks are the dominant models for machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs). The key operation of such networks is the ClebschGordan (CG) tensor product, which is computationally expensive. To accelerate the computation, we develop tensor decomposition networks (TDNs) as a class of approximately equivariant networks in which CG tensor products are replaced by low-rank tensor decompositions, such as the CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP) decomposition. With the CP decomposition, we prove (i) a uniform bound on the induced error of SO(3)-equivariance, and (ii) the universality of approximating any equivariant bilinear map. To further reduce the number of parameters, we propose path-weight sharing that ties all multiplicity-space weights across the O(L3)CG paths into a single shared parameter set without compromising equivariance, where L is the maximum angular degree.


Learning to Factorize Spatio-Temporal Foundation Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Spatio-Temporal (ST) Foundation Models (STFMs) promise cross-dataset generalization, yet joint ST pretraining is computationally costly and struggles with domain-specific spatial correlations. To address this, we propose FactoST, a factorized STFM that decouples universal temporal pretraining from ST adaptation. The first stage trains a space-agnostic backbone via multi-task learning to capture multifrequency, cross-domain temporal patterns at low cost. The second stage attaches an lightweight adapter that rapidly adapts the backbone to specific ST domains via metadata fusion, interaction pruning, domain alignment, and memory replay. Extensive forecasting experiments show that in few-shot settings, FactoST reduces MAE by up to 46.4% versus UniST, uses 46.2% fewer parameters, achieves 68% faster inference than OpenCity, and remains competitive with expert models. This factorized view offers a practical, scalable path toward truly universal STFMs.


On the Optimal Construction of Unbiased Gradient Estimators for Zeroth-Order Optimization

Neural Information Processing Systems

Zeroth-order optimization (ZOO) is an important framework for stochastic optimization when gradients are unavailable or expensive to compute. A potential limitation of existing ZOO methods is the bias inherent in most gradient estimators unless the perturbation stepsize vanishes. In this paper, we overcome this biasedness issue by proposing a novel family of unbiased gradient estimators based solely on function evaluations. By reformulating directional derivatives as a telescoping series and sampling from carefully designed distributions, we construct estimators that eliminate bias while maintaining favorable variance. We analyze their theoretical properties, derive optimal scaling distributions and perturbation stepsizes of four specific constructions, and prove that SGD using the proposed estimators achieves optimal complexity for smooth non-convex objectives. Experiments on synthetic tasks and language model fine-tuning confirm the superior accuracy and convergence of our approach compared to standard methods.


Variational Consensus Monte Carlo for Bayesian Mixture

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Motivated by the privacy, sensitivity and sharing limitations of health data, we present a comprehensive pipeline for inference of Bayesian mixture models within a federated learning setting, i.e. when data cannot be fully shared or pooled across compute nodes. We adopt a Consensus Monte Carlo (CMC) approach, in which an MCMC algorithm is run independently within each data silo to estimate local posterior distributions, which are then aggregated to approximate the posterior over the full data. The variational CMC approach of Rabinovich, Angelino and Jordan (2015) [1] frames the aggregation step as a variational inference problem, but their application to mixtures assumes the number of clusters and key mixture parameters to be known. Our main methodological contributions are: (i) an extension of variational CMC to over-fitted Bayesian mixture models that infer the number of clusters and all model parameters, without requiring conjugacy; (ii) novel cluster-matching algorithms suitable for cross-silo settings in which not every cluster appears in each local dataset; (iii) a number of inference strategies for the aggregation step, matched to different federated learning constraints; and (iv) guidelines for choosing among these in practice. A comprehensive simulation study validates the framework and allows us to compare to state-of-the-art federated learning alternatives. Notably, we show that when the composition of local datasets reflects the underlying clustering structure in the data, our approach can recover small clusters with greater accuracy than standard MCMC applied to the pooled data. We illustrate the framework on large-scale electronic health record data, identifying multi-morbidity patterns in a British geriatric population.