Curriculum learning has emerged as an effective strategy to enhance the training efficiency and generalization of machine learning models. However, its theoretical underpinnings remain relatively underexplored. In this work, we develop a theoretical framework for curriculum learning based on biased regularized empirical risk minimization (RERM), identifying conditions under which curriculum learning provably improves generalization. We introduce a sufficient condition that characterizes a "good" curriculum and analyze a multi-task curriculum framework, where solving a sequence of convex tasks can facilitate better generalization. We also demonstrate how these theoretical insights translate to practical benefits when using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) as an optimization method. Beyond convex settings, we explore the utility of curriculum learning for non-convex tasks. Empirical evaluations on synthetic datasets and MNIST validate our theoretical findings and highlight the practical efficacy of curriculum-based training.

Methods for split conformal prediction leverage calibration samples to transform any prediction rule into a set-prediction rule that complies with a target coverage probability. Existing methods provide remarkably strong performance guarantees with minimal computational costs. However, they require the use calibration samples composed by labeled examples different to those used for training. This requirement can be highly inconvenient, as it prevents the use of all labeled examples for training and may require acquiring additional labels solely for calibration. This paper presents an effective methodology for split conformal prediction with unsupervised calibration for classification tasks.

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) estimates the performance of a target policy using offline data collected from a behavior policy, and is crucial in domains such as robotics or healthcare where direct interaction with the environment is costly or unsafe. Existing OPE methods are ineffective for high-dimensional, long-horizon problems, due to exponential blow-ups in variance from importance weighting or compounding errors from learned dynamics models. To address these challenges, we propose STITCH-OPE, a model-based generative framework that leverages denoising diffusion for long-horizon OPE in high-dimensional state and action spaces. Starting with a diffusion model pre-trained on the behavior data, STITCHOPE generates synthetic trajectories from the target policy by guiding the denoising process using the score function of the target policy. STITCH-OPE proposes two technical innovations that make it advantageous for OPE: (1) prevents overregularization by subtracting the score of the behavior policy during guidance, and (2) generates long-horizon trajectories by stitching partial trajectories together end-to-end. We provide a theoretical guarantee that under mild assumptions, these modifications result in an exponential reduction in variance versus long-horizon trajectory diffusion.

In this paper, we leverage stochastic projection and lossy compression to establish new conditional mutual information (CMI) bounds on the generalization error of statistical learning algorithms. It is shown that these bounds are generally tighter than the existing ones. In particular, we prove that for certain problem instances for which existing MI and CMI bounds were recently shown in Attias et al. [2024] and Livni [2023] to become vacuous or fail to describe the right generalization behavior, our bounds yield suitable generalization guarantees of the order of O(1/ n), where nis the size of the training dataset. Furthermore, we use our bounds to investigate the problem of data "memorization" raised in those works, and which asserts that there are learning problem instances for which any learning algorithm that has good prediction there exist distributions under which the algorithm must "memorize" a big fraction of the training dataset. We show that for every learning algorithm, there exists an auxiliary algorithm that does not memorize and which yields comparable generalization error for any data distribution. In part, this shows that memorization is not necessary for good generalization.

While RLHF has demonstrated promising results, many algorithms are highly sensitive to misspecifications in the underlying preference model (e.g., the Bradley-Terry model), the reference policy, or the reward function, resulting in undesirable fine-tuning. To address model misspecification, we propose a doubly robust preference optimization algorithm that remains consistent when either the preference model or the reference policy is correctly specified (without requiring both). Our proposal demonstrates superior and more robust performance than state-of-the-art algorithms, both in theory and in practice.

The softmax-contaminated mixture of experts (MoE) model is deployed when a large-scale pre-trained model, which plays the role of a fixed expert, is fine-tuned for learning downstream tasks by including a new contamination part, or prompt, functioning as a new, trainable expert. Despite its popularity and relevance, the theoretical properties of the softmax-contaminated MoE have remained unexplored in the literature. In the paper, we study the convergence rates of the maximum likelihood estimator of gating and prompt parameters in order to gain insights into the statistical properties and potential challenges of fine-tuning with a new prompt. We find that the estimability of these parameters is compromised when the prompt acquires overlapping knowledge with the pre-trained model, in the sense that we make precise by formulating a novel analytic notion of distinguishability. Under distinguishability of the pre-trained and prompt models, we derive minimax optimal estimation rates for all the gating and prompt parameters. By contrast, when the distinguishability condition is violated, these estimation rates become significantly slower due to their dependence on the prompt convergence rate to the pre-trained model. Finally, we empirically corroborate our theoretical findings through several numerical experiments.

Time series data is prevalent across numerous fields, necessitating the development of robust and accurate forecasting models. Capturing patterns both within and between temporal and multivariate components is crucial for reliable predictions. We introduce xLSTM-Mixer, a model designed to effectively integrate temporal sequences, joint time-variate information, and multiple perspectives for robust forecasting. Our approach begins with a linear forecast shared across variates, which is then refined by xLSTM blocks. They serve as key elements for modeling the complex dynamics of challenging time series data.

Test-time adaptation aims to improve model robustness under distribution shifts by adapting models with access to unlabeled target samples. A primary cause of performance degradation under such shifts is the model's reliance on features that lack a direct causal relationship with the prediction target. We introduce Test-time Adaptation by Causal Trimming (TACT), a method that identifies and removes non-causal components from representations for test distributions. TACT applies data augmentations that preserve causal features while varying non-causal ones. By analyzing the changes in the representations using Principal Component Analysis, TACT identifies the highest variance directions associated with non-causal features. It trims the representations by removing their projections on the identified directions, and uses the trimmed representations for the predictions.

Perturbation-based explanations are widely utilized to enhance the transparency of machine-learning models in practice. However, their reliability is often compromised by the unknown model behavior under the specific perturbations used. This paper investigates the relationship between uncertainty calibration - the alignment of model confidence with actual accuracy - and perturbation-based explanations. We show that models systematically produce unreliable probability estimates when subjected to explainability-specific perturbations and theoretically prove that this directly undermines global and local explanation quality. To address this, we introduce ReCalX, a novel approach to recalibrate models for improved explanations while preserving their original predictions. Empirical evaluations across diverse models and datasets demonstrate that ReCalX consistently reduces perturbationspecific miscalibration most effectively while enhancing explanation robustness and the identification of globally important input features.

Time series segmentation is a fundamental task in analyzing temporal data across various domains, from human activity recognition to energy monitoring. While numerous state-of-the-art methods have been developed to tackle this problem, the evaluation of their performance remains critically limited. Existing measures predominantly focus on change point accuracy or rely on point-based measures such as Adjusted Rand Index (ARI), which fail to capture the quality of the detected segments, ignore the nature of errors, and offer limited interpretability. In this paper, we address these shortcomings by introducing two novel evaluation measures: WARI (Weighted Adjusted Rand Index), that accounts for the position of segmentation errors, and SMS (State Matching Score), a fine-grained measure that identifies and scores four fundamental types of segmentation errors while allowing error-specific weighting. We empirically validate WARI and SMS on synthetic and real-world benchmarks, showing that they not only provide a more accurate assessment of segmentation quality but also uncover insights, such as error provenance and type, that are inaccessible with traditional measures.