Accurate load forecasting is critical for efficient and reliable operations of the electric power system. A large part of electricity consumption is affected by weather conditions, making weather information an important determinant of electricity usage. Personal appliances and industry equipment also contribute significantly to electricity demand with temporal patterns, making time a useful factor to consider in load forecasting. This work develops several machine learning (ML) models that take various time and weather information as part of the input features to predict the short-term system-wide total load. Ablation studies were also performed to investigate and compare the impacts of different weather factors on the prediction accuracy. Actual load and historical weather data for the same region were processed and then used to train the ML models. It is interesting to observe that using all available features, each of which may be correlated to the load, is unlikely to achieve the best forecasting performance; features with redundancy may even decrease the inference capabilities of ML models. This indicates the importance of feature selection for ML models. Overall, case studies demonstrated the effectiveness of ML models trained with different weather and time input features for ERCOT load forecasting.

Distributed ensemble learning (DEL) involves training multiple models at distributed learners, and then combining their predictions to improve performance. Existing related studies focus on DEL algorithm design and optimization but ignore the important issue of incentives, without which self-interested learners may be unwilling to participate in DEL. We aim to fill this gap by presenting a first study on the incentive mechanism design for DEL. Our proposed mechanism specifies both the amount of training data and reward for learners with heterogeneous computation and communication costs. One design challenge is to have an accurate understanding regarding how learners' diversity (in terms of training data) affects the ensemble accuracy. To this end, we decompose the ensemble accuracy into a diversity-precision tradeoff to guide the mechanism design. Another challenge is that the mechanism design involves solving a mixed-integer program with a large search space. To this end, we propose an alternating algorithm that iteratively updates each learner's training data size and reward. We prove that under mild conditions, the algorithm converges. Numerical results using MNIST dataset show an interesting result: our proposed mechanism may prefer a lower level of learner diversity to achieve a higher ensemble accuracy.

Divorce is one of the most common social issues in developed countries like in the United States. Almost 50% of the recent marriages turn into an involuntary divorce or separation. While it is evident that people vary to a different extent, and even over time, an incident like Divorce does not interrupt the individual's daily activities; still, Divorce has a severe effect on the individual's mental health, and personal life. Within the scope of this research, the divorce prediction was carried out by evaluating a dataset named by the 'divorce predictor dataset' to correctly classify between married and Divorce people using six different machine learning algorithms- Logistic Regression (LR), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Gaussian Na\"ive Bayes (NB), and, Support Vector Machines (SVM). Preliminary computational results show that algorithms such as SVM, KNN, and LDA, can perform that task with an accuracy of 98.57%. This work's additional novel contribution is the detailed and comprehensive explanation of prediction probabilities using Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME). Utilizing LIME to analyze test results illustrates the possibility of differentiating between divorced and married couples. Finally, we have developed a divorce predictor app considering ten most important features that potentially affect couples in making decisions in their divorce, such tools can be used by any one in order to identify their relationship condition.

Segmentation of objects in microscopy images is required for many biomedical applications. We introduce object-centric embeddings (OCEs), which embed image patches such that the spatial offsets between patches cropped from the same object are preserved. Those learnt embeddings can be used to delineate individual objects and thus obtain instance segmentations. Here, we show theoretically that, under assumptions commonly found in microscopy images, OCEs can be learnt through a self-supervised task that predicts the spatial offset between image patches. Together, this forms an unsupervised cell instance segmentation method which we evaluate on nine diverse large-scale microscopy datasets. Segmentations obtained with our method lead to substantially improved results, compared to state-of-the-art baselines on six out of nine datasets, and perform on par on the remaining three datasets. If ground-truth annotations are available, our method serves as an excellent starting point for supervised training, reducing the required amount of ground-truth needed by one order of magnitude, thus substantially increasing the practical applicability of our method. Source code is available at https://github.com/funkelab/cellulus.

The reasoning capabilities of LLM (Large Language Model) are widely acknowledged in recent research, inspiring studies on tool learning and autonomous agents. LLM serves as the "brain" of agent, orchestrating multiple tools for collaborative multi-step task solving. Unlike methods invoking tools like calculators or weather APIs for straightforward tasks, multi-modal agents excel by integrating diverse AI models for complex challenges. However, current multi-modal agents neglect the significance of model selection: they primarily focus on the planning and execution phases, and will only invoke predefined task-specific models for each subtask, making the execution fragile. Meanwhile, other traditional model selection methods are either incompatible with or suboptimal for the multi-modal agent scenarios, due to ignorance of dependencies among subtasks arising by multi-step reasoning. To this end, we identify the key challenges therein and propose the $\textit{M}^3$ framework as a plug-in with negligible runtime overhead at test-time. This framework improves model selection and bolsters the robustness of multi-modal agents in multi-step reasoning. In the absence of suitable benchmarks, we create MS-GQA, a new dataset specifically designed to investigate the model selection challenge in multi-modal agents. Our experiments reveal that our framework enables dynamic model selection, considering both user inputs and subtask dependencies, thereby robustifying the overall reasoning process. Our code and benchmark: https://github.com/LINs-lab/M3.

Active learning presents a promising avenue for training high-performance models with minimal labeled data, achieved by judiciously selecting the most informative instances to label and incorporating them into the task learner. Despite notable advancements in active learning for image recognition, metrics devised or learned to gauge the information gain of data, crucial for query strategy design, do not consistently align with task model performance metrics, such as Mean Average Precision (MeanAP) in object detection tasks. This paper introduces MeanAP-Guided Reinforced Active Learning for Object Detection (MAGRAL), a novel approach that directly utilizes the MeanAP metric of the task model to devise a sampling strategy employing a reinforcement learning-based sampling agent. Built upon LSTM architecture, the agent efficiently explores and selects subsequent training instances, and optimizes the process through policy gradient with MeanAP serving as reward. Recognizing the time-intensive nature of MeanAP computation at each step, we propose fast look-up tables to expedite agent training. We assess MAGRAL's efficacy across popular benchmarks, PASCAL VOC and MS COCO, utilizing different backbone architectures. Empirical findings substantiate MAGRAL's superiority over recent state-of-the-art methods, showcasing substantial performance gains. MAGRAL establishes a robust baseline for reinforced active object detection, signifying its potential in advancing the field.

Neural Collapse (NC) is a well-known phenomenon of deep neural networks in the terminal phase of training (TPT). It is characterized by the collapse of features and classifier into a symmetrical structure, known as simplex equiangular tight frame (ETF). While there have been extensive studies on optimization characteristics showing the global optimality of neural collapse, little research has been done on the generalization behaviors during the occurrence of NC. Particularly, the important phenomenon of generalization improvement during TPT has been remaining in an empirical observation and lacking rigorous theoretical explanation. In this paper, we establish the connection between the minimization of CE and a multi-class SVM during TPT, and then derive a multi-class margin generalization bound, which provides a theoretical explanation for why continuing training can still lead to accuracy improvement on test set, even after the train accuracy has reached 100%. Additionally, our further theoretical results indicate that different alignment between labels and features in a simplex ETF can result in varying degrees of generalization improvement, despite all models reaching NC and demonstrating similar optimization performance on train set. We refer to this newly discovered property as "non-conservative generalization". In experiments, we also provide empirical observations to verify the indications suggested by our theoretical results.

High resolution tactile sensing has great potential in autonomous mobile robotics, particularly for legged robots. One particular area where it has significant promise is the traversal of challenging, varied terrain. Depending on whether an environment is slippery, soft, hard or dry, a robot must adapt its method of locomotion accordingly. Currently many multi-legged robots, such as Boston Dynamic's Spot robot, have preset gaits for different surface types, but struggle over terrains where the surface type changes frequently. Being able to automatically detect changes within an environment would allow a robot to autonomously adjust its method of locomotion to better suit conditions, without requiring a human user to manually set the change in surface type. In this paper we report on the first detailed investigation of the properties of a particular bio-inspired tactile sensor, the TacTip, to test its suitability for this kind of automatic detection of surface conditions. We explored different processing techniques and a regression model, using a custom made rig for data collection to determine how a robot could sense directional and general force on the sensor in a variety of conditions. This allowed us to successfully demonstrate how the sensor can be used to distinguish between soft, hard, dry and (wet) slippery surfaces. We further explored a neural model to classify specific surface textures. Pin movement (the movement of optical markers within the sensor) was key to sensing this information, and all models relied on some form of temporal information. Our final trained models could successfully determine the direction the sensor is heading in, the amount of force acting on it, and determine differences in the surface texture such as Lego vs smooth hard surface, or concrete vs smooth hard surface.

Voice conversion aims to convert source speech into a target voice using recordings of the target speaker as a reference. Newer models are producing increasingly realistic output. But what happens when models are fed with non-standard data, such as speech from a user with a speech impairment? We investigate how a recent voice conversion model performs on non-standard downstream voice conversion tasks. We use a simple but robust approach called k-nearest neighbors voice conversion (kNN-VC). We look at four non-standard applications: stuttered voice conversion, cross-lingual voice conversion, musical instrument conversion, and text-to-voice conversion. The latter involves converting to a target voice specified through a text description, e.g. "a young man with a high-pitched voice". Compared to an established baseline, we find that kNN-VC retains high performance in stuttered and cross-lingual voice conversion. Results are more mixed for the musical instrument and text-to-voice conversion tasks. E.g., kNN-VC works well on some instruments like drums but not on others. Nevertheless, this shows that voice conversion models - and kNN-VC in particular - are increasingly applicable in a range of non-standard downstream tasks. But there are still limitations when samples are very far from the training distribution. Code, samples, trained models: https://rf5.github.io/sacair2023-knnvc-demo/.

In many cases, a machine learning model must learn to correctly predict a few data points with particular values of interest in a broader range of data where many target values are zero. Zero-inflated data can be found in diverse scenarios, such as lumpy and intermittent demands, power consumption for home appliances being turned on and off, impurities measurement in distillation processes, and even airport shuttle demand prediction. The presence of zeroes affects the models' learning and may result in poor performance. Furthermore, zeroes also distort the metrics used to compute the model's prediction quality. This paper showcases two real-world use cases (home appliances classification and airport shuttle demand prediction) where a hierarchical model applied in the context of zero-inflated data leads to excellent results. In particular, for home appliances classification, the weighted average of Precision, Recall, F1, and AUC ROC was increased by 27%, 34%, 49%, and 27%, respectively. Furthermore, it is estimated that the proposed approach is also four times more energy efficient than the SOTA approach against which it was compared to. Two-fold models performed best in all cases when predicting airport shuttle demand, and the difference against other models has been proven to be statistically significant.