Low-precision training has emerged as a promising low-cost technique to enhance the training efficiency of deep neural networks without sacrificing much accuracy. Its Bayesian counterpart can further provide uncertainty quantification and improved generalization accuracy. This paper investigates low-precision sampling via Stochastic Gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SGHMC) with low-precision and full-precision gradient accumulators for both strongly log-concave and non-log-concave distributions. Theoretically, our results show that, to achieve $\epsilon$-error in the 2-Wasserstein distance for non-log-concave distributions, low-precision SGHMC achieves quadratic improvement ($\widetilde{\mathbf{O}}\left({\epsilon^{-2}{\mu^*}^{-2}\log^2\left({\epsilon^{-1}}\right)}\right)$) compared to the state-of-the-art low-precision sampler, Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) ($\widetilde{\mathbf{O}}\left({{\epsilon}^{-4}{\lambda^{*}}^{-1}\log^5\left({\epsilon^{-1}}\right)}\right)$). Moreover, we prove that low-precision SGHMC is more robust to the quantization error compared to low-precision SGLD due to the robustness of the momentum-based update w.r.t. gradient noise. Empirically, we conduct experiments on synthetic data, and {MNIST, CIFAR-10 \& CIFAR-100} datasets, which validate our theoretical findings. Our study highlights the potential of low-precision SGHMC as an efficient and accurate sampling method for large-scale and resource-limited machine learning.

We study the problem of high-dimensional robust mean estimation in an online setting. Specifically, we consider a scenario where $n$ sensors are measuring some common, ongoing phenomenon. At each time step $t=1,2,\ldots,T$, the $i^{th}$ sensor reports its readings $x^{(i)}_t$ for that time step. The algorithm must then commit to its estimate $\mu_t$ for the true mean value of the process at time $t$. We assume that most of the sensors observe independent samples from some common distribution $X$, but an $\epsilon$-fraction of them may instead behave maliciously. The algorithm wishes to compute a good approximation $\mu$ to the true mean $\mu^\ast := \mathbf{E}[X]$. We note that if the algorithm is allowed to wait until time $T$ to report its estimate, this reduces to the well-studied problem of robust mean estimation. However, the requirement that our algorithm produces partial estimates as the data is coming in substantially complicates the situation. We prove two main results about online robust mean estimation in this model. First, if the uncorrupted samples satisfy the standard condition of $(\epsilon,\delta)$-stability, we give an efficient online algorithm that outputs estimates $\mu_t$, $t \in [T],$ such that with high probability it holds that $\|\mu-\mu^\ast\|_2 = O(\delta \log(T))$, where $\mu = (\mu_t)_{t \in [T]}$. We note that this error bound is nearly competitive with the best offline algorithms, which would achieve $\ell_2$-error of $O(\delta)$. Our second main result shows that with additional assumptions on the input (most notably that $X$ is a product distribution) there are inefficient algorithms whose error does not depend on $T$ at all.

Recently developed survival analysis methods improve upon existing approaches by predicting the probability of event occurrence in each of a number pre-specified (discrete) time intervals. By avoiding placing strong parametric assumptions on the event density, this approach tends to improve prediction performance, particularly when data are plentiful. However, in clinical settings with limited available data, it is often preferable to judiciously partition the event time space into a limited number of intervals well suited to the prediction task at hand. In this work, we develop a method to learn from data a set of cut points defining such a partition. We show that in two simulated datasets, we are able to recover intervals that match the underlying generative model. We then demonstrate improved prediction performance on three real-world observational datasets, including a large, newly harmonized stroke risk prediction dataset. Finally, we argue that our approach facilitates clinical decision-making by suggesting time intervals that are most appropriate for each task, in the sense that they facilitate more accurate risk prediction.

Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) is a relatively new technology that has stimulated enormous interest in statistics, data science, and computational biology due to the high dimensionality, complexity, and large scale associated with scRNA-seq data. Nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) offers a unique approach due to its meta-gene interpretation of resulting low-dimensional components. However, NMF approaches suffer from the lack of multiscale analysis. This work introduces two persistent Laplacian regularized NMF methods, namely, topological NMF (TNMF) and robust topological NMF (rTNMF). By employing a total of 12 datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed TNMF and rTNMF significantly outperform all other NMF-based methods. We have also utilized TNMF and rTNMF for the visualization of popular Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) and t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE).

A topic of great current interest is Causal Representation Learning (CRL), whose goal is to learn a causal model for hidden features in a data-driven manner. Unfortunately, CRL is severely ill-posed since it is a combination of the two notoriously ill-posed problems of representation learning and causal discovery. Yet, finding practical identifiability conditions that guarantee a unique solution is crucial for its practical applicability. Most approaches so far have been based on assumptions on the latent causal mechanisms, such as temporal causality, or existence of supervision or interventions; these can be too restrictive in actual applications. Here, we show identifiability based on novel, weak constraints, which requires no temporal structure, intervention, nor weak supervision. The approach is based assuming the observational mixing exhibits a suitable grouping of the observational variables. We also propose a novel self-supervised estimation framework consistent with the model, prove its statistical consistency, and experimentally show its superior CRL performances compared to the state-of-the-art baselines. We further demonstrate its robustness against latent confounders and causal cycles.

We study deceptive fairness attacks on graphs to answer the following question: How can we achieve poisoning attacks on a graph learning model to exacerbate the bias deceptively? We answer this question via a bi-level optimization problem and propose a meta learning-based framework named FATE. FATE is broadly applicable with respect to various fairness definitions and graph learning models, as well as arbitrary choices of manipulation operations. We further instantiate FATE to attack statistical parity and individual fairness on graph neural networks. We conduct extensive experimental evaluations on real-world datasets in the task of semi-supervised node classification. The experimental results demonstrate that FATE could amplify the bias of graph neural networks with or without fairness consideration while maintaining the utility on the downstream task. We hope this paper provides insights into the adversarial robustness of fair graph learning and can shed light on designing robust and fair graph learning in future studies.

Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from observational data remains a significant challenge in machine learning. Most research in this area concentrates on learning a single DAG for the entire population. This paper considers an alternative setting where the graph structure varies across individuals based on available "contextual" features. We tackle this contextual DAG problem via a neural network that maps the contextual features to a DAG, represented as a weighted adjacency matrix. The neural network is equipped with a novel projection layer that ensures the output matrices are sparse and satisfy a recently developed characterization of acyclicity. We devise a scalable computational framework for learning contextual DAGs and provide a convergence guarantee and an analytical gradient for backpropagating through the projection layer. Our experiments suggest that the new approach can recover the true context-specific graph where existing approaches fail.

Recent years have witnessed the huge success of deep neural networks (DNNs) in various tasks of computer vision and text processing. Interestingly, these DNNs with massive number of parameters share similar structural properties on their feature representation and last-layer classifier at terminal phase of training (TPT). Specifically, if the training data are balanced (each class shares the same number of samples), it is observed that the feature vectors of samples from the same class converge to their corresponding in-class mean features and their pairwise angles are the same. This fascinating phenomenon is known as Neural Collapse (N C), first termed by Papyan, Han, and Donoho in 2019. Many recent works manage to theoretically explain this phenomenon by adopting so-called unconstrained feature model (UFM). In this paper, we study the extension of N C phenomenon to the imbalanced data under cross-entropy loss function in the context of unconstrained feature model. Our contribution is multi-fold compared with the state-of-the-art results: (a) we show that the feature vectors exhibit collapse phenomenon, i.e., the features within the same class collapse to the same mean vector; (b) the mean feature vectors no longer form an equiangular tight frame. Instead, their pairwise angles depend on the sample size; (c) we also precisely characterize the sharp threshold on which the minority collapse (the feature vectors of the minority groups collapse to one single vector) will take place; (d) finally, we argue that the effect of the imbalance in datasize diminishes as the sample size grows. Our results provide a complete picture of the N C under the cross-entropy loss for the imbalanced data. Numerical experiments confirm our theoretical analysis.

Conformal Prediction (CP) allows to perform rigorous uncertainty quantification by constructing a prediction set $C(X)$ satisfying $\mathbb{P}(Y \in C(X))\geq 1-\alpha$ for a user-chosen $\alpha \in [0,1]$ by relying on calibration data $(X_1,Y_1),...,(X_n,Y_n)$ from $\mathbb{P}=\mathbb{P}^{X} \otimes \mathbb{P}^{Y|X}$. It is typically implicitly assumed that $\mathbb{P}^{Y|X}$ is the "true" posterior label distribution. However, in many real-world scenarios, the labels $Y_1,...,Y_n$ are obtained by aggregating expert opinions using a voting procedure, resulting in a one-hot distribution $\mathbb{P}_{vote}^{Y|X}$. For such ``voted'' labels, CP guarantees are thus w.r.t. $\mathbb{P}_{vote}=\mathbb{P}^X \otimes \mathbb{P}_{vote}^{Y|X}$ rather than the true distribution $\mathbb{P}$. In cases with unambiguous ground truth labels, the distinction between $\mathbb{P}_{vote}$ and $\mathbb{P}$ is irrelevant. However, when experts do not agree because of ambiguous labels, approximating $\mathbb{P}^{Y|X}$ with a one-hot distribution $\mathbb{P}_{vote}^{Y|X}$ ignores this uncertainty. In this paper, we propose to leverage expert opinions to approximate $\mathbb{P}^{Y|X}$ using a non-degenerate distribution $\mathbb{P}_{agg}^{Y|X}$. We develop Monte Carlo CP procedures which provide guarantees w.r.t. $\mathbb{P}_{agg}=\mathbb{P}^X \otimes \mathbb{P}_{agg}^{Y|X}$ by sampling multiple synthetic pseudo-labels from $\mathbb{P}_{agg}^{Y|X}$ for each calibration example $X_1,...,X_n$. In a case study of skin condition classification with significant disagreement among expert annotators, we show that applying CP w.r.t. $\mathbb{P}_{vote}$ under-covers expert annotations: calibrated for $72\%$ coverage, it falls short by on average $10\%$; our Monte Carlo CP closes this gap both empirically and theoretically.

Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product between a divergence function and the posterior. Current methods such as Deep Ensembles or MC dropout underperform at estimating the epistemic uncertainty, since they primarily consider the posterior when sampling models. We suggest Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models (QUAM) to better estimate the epistemic uncertainty. QUAM identifies regions where the whole product under the integral is large, not just the posterior. Consequently, QUAM has lower approximation error of the epistemic uncertainty compared to previous methods. Models for which the product is large correspond to adversarial models (not adversarial examples!). Adversarial models have both a high posterior as well as a high divergence between their predictions and that of a reference model. Our experiments show that QUAM excels in capturing epistemic uncertainty for deep learning models and outperforms previous methods on challenging tasks in the vision domain.