We study the problem of unsupervised heteroscedastic covariance estimation, where the goal is to learn the multivariate target distribution $\mathcal{N}(y, \Sigma_y | x )$ given an observation $x$. This problem is particularly challenging as $\Sigma_{y}$ varies for different samples (heteroscedastic) and no annotation for the covariance is available (unsupervised). Typically, state-of-the-art methods predict the mean $f_{\theta}(x)$ and covariance $\textrm{Cov}(f_{\theta}(x))$ of the target distribution through two neural networks trained using the negative log-likelihood. This raises two questions: (1) Does the predicted covariance truly capture the randomness of the predicted mean? (2) In the absence of ground-truth annotation, how can we quantify the performance of covariance estimation? We address (1) by deriving TIC: Taylor Induced Covariance, which captures the randomness of the multivariate $f_{\theta}(x)$ by incorporating its gradient and curvature around $x$ through the second order Taylor polynomial. Furthermore, we tackle (2) by introducing TAC: Task Agnostic Correlations, a metric which leverages conditioning of the normal distribution to evaluate the covariance. We verify the effectiveness of TIC through multiple experiments spanning synthetic (univariate, multivariate) and real-world datasets (UCI Regression, LSP, and MPII Human Pose Estimation). Our experiments show that TIC outperforms state-of-the-art in accurately learning the covariance, as quantified through TAC.

This work focuses on the analysis of Chess 960, also known as Fischer Random Chess, a variant of traditional chess where the starting positions of the pieces are randomized. The study aims to predict the game outcome using machine learning techniques and develop an opening theme for each starting position. The first part of the analysis utilizes machine learning models to predict the game result based on certain moves in each position. The methodology involves segregating raw data from .pgn files into usable formats and creating datasets comprising approximately 500 games for each starting position. Three machine learning algorithms -- KNN Clustering, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosted Trees -- have been used to predict the game outcome. To establish an opening theme, the board is divided into five regions: center, white kingside, white queenside, black kingside, and black queenside. The data from games played by top engines in all 960 positions is used to track the movement of pieces in the opening. By analysing the change in the number of pieces in each region at specific moves, the report predicts the region towards which the game is developing. These models provide valuable insights into predicting game outcomes and understanding the opening theme in Chess 960.

When users receive either a positive or negative outcome from an automated system, Explainable AI (XAI) has almost exclusively focused on how to mutate negative outcomes into positive ones by crossing a decision boundary using counterfactuals (e.g., \textit{"If you earn 2k more, we will accept your loan application"}). Here, we instead focus on \textit{positive} outcomes, and take the novel step of using XAI to optimise them (e.g., \textit{"Even if you wish to half your down-payment, we will still accept your loan application"}). Explanations such as these that employ "even if..." reasoning, and do not cross a decision boundary, are known as semifactuals. To instantiate semifactuals in this context, we introduce the concept of \textit{Gain} (i.e., how much a user stands to benefit from the explanation), and consider the first causal formalisation of semifactuals. Tests on benchmark datasets show our algorithms are better at maximising gain compared to prior work, and that causality is important in the process. Most importantly however, a user study supports our main hypothesis by showing people find semifactual explanations more useful than counterfactuals when they receive the positive outcome of a loan acceptance.

In a backdoor attack, an adversary injects corrupted data into a model's training dataset in order to gain control over its predictions on images with a specific attacker-defined trigger. A typical corrupted training example requires altering both the image, by applying the trigger, and the label. Models trained on clean images, therefore, were considered safe from backdoor attacks. However, in some common machine learning scenarios, the training labels are provided by potentially malicious third-parties. This includes crowd-sourced annotation and knowledge distillation. We, hence, investigate a fundamental question: can we launch a successful backdoor attack by only corrupting labels? We introduce a novel approach to design label-only backdoor attacks, which we call FLIP, and demonstrate its strengths on three datasets (CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and Tiny-ImageNet) and four architectures (ResNet-32, ResNet-18, VGG-19, and Vision Transformer). With only 2% of CIFAR-10 labels corrupted, FLIP achieves a near-perfect attack success rate of 99.4% while suffering only a 1.8% drop in the clean test accuracy. Our approach builds upon the recent advances in trajectory matching, originally introduced for dataset distillation.

Many of diverse phenomena in nature often inherently encode both short and long term temporal dependencies, short term dependencies especially resulting from the direction of flow of time. In this respect, we discovered experimental evidences suggesting that {\it interrelations} of these events are higher for closer time stamps. However, to be able for attention based models to learn these regularities in short term dependencies, it requires large amounts of data which are often infeasible. This is due to the reason that, while they are good at learning piece wised temporal dependencies, attention based models lack structures that encode biases in time series. As a resolution, we propose a simple and efficient method that enables attention layers to better encode short term temporal bias of these data sets by applying learnable, adaptive kernels directly to the attention matrices. For the experiments, we chose various prediction tasks using Electronic Health Records (EHR) data sets since they are great examples that have underlying long and short term temporal dependencies. The results of our experiments show exceptional classification results compared to best performing models on most of the task and data sets.

Lithium-ion batteries are widely used in various applications, including electric vehicles and renewable energy storage. The prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of batteries is crucial for ensuring reliable and efficient operation, as well as reducing maintenance costs. However, determining the life cycle of batteries in real-world scenarios is challenging, and existing methods have limitations in predicting the number of cycles iteratively. In addition, existing works often oversimplify the datasets, neglecting important features of the batteries such as temperature, internal resistance, and material type. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a two-stage remaining useful life prediction scheme for Lithium-ion batteries using a spatio-temporal multimodal attention network (ST-MAN). The proposed model is designed to iteratively predict the number of cycles required for the battery to reach the end of its useful life, based on available data. The proposed ST-MAN is to capture the complex spatio-temporal dependencies in the battery data, including the features that are often neglected in existing works. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed ST-MAN model outperforms existing CNN and LSTM-based methods, achieving state-of-the-art performance in predicting the remaining useful life of Li-ion batteries. The proposed method has the potential to improve the reliability and efficiency of battery operations and is applicable in various industries, including automotive and renewable energy.

Distributed online learning has been proven extremely effective in solving large-scale machine learning problems over streaming data. However, information sharing between learners in distributed learning also raises concerns about the potential leakage of individual learners' sensitive data. To mitigate this risk, differential privacy, which is widely regarded as the "gold standard" for privacy protection, has been widely employed in many existing results on distributed online learning. However, these results often face a fundamental tradeoff between learning accuracy and privacy. In this paper, we propose a locally differentially private gradient tracking based distributed online learning algorithm that successfully circumvents this tradeoff. We prove that the proposed algorithm converges in mean square to the exact optimal solution while ensuring rigorous local differential privacy, with the cumulative privacy budget guaranteed to be finite even when the number of iterations tends to infinity. The algorithm is applicable even when the communication graph among learners is directed. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first result that simultaneously ensures learning accuracy and rigorous local differential privacy in distributed online learning over directed graphs. We evaluate our algorithm's performance by using multiple benchmark machine-learning applications, including logistic regression of the "Mushrooms" dataset and CNN-based image classification of the "MNIST" and "CIFAR-10" datasets, respectively. The experimental results confirm that the proposed algorithm outperforms existing counterparts in both training and testing accuracies.

Deep learning (DL) techniques have recently found success in anomaly detection (AD) across various fields such as finance, medical services, and cloud computing. However, most of the current research tends to view deep AD algorithms as a whole, without dissecting the contributions of individual design choices like loss functions and network architectures. This view tends to diminish the value of preliminary steps like data preprocessing, as more attention is given to newly designed loss functions, network architectures, and learning paradigms. In this paper, we aim to bridge this gap by asking two key questions: (i) Which design choices in deep AD methods are crucial for detecting anomalies? (ii) How can we automatically select the optimal design choices for a given AD dataset, instead of relying on generic, pre-existing solutions? To address these questions, we introduce ADGym, a platform specifically crafted for comprehensive evaluation and automatic selection of AD design elements in deep methods. Our extensive experiments reveal that relying solely on existing leading methods is not sufficient. In contrast, models developed using ADGym significantly surpass current state-of-the-art techniques.

The paper presents the algorithm for clustering a dataset by grouping the optimal, from the point of view of the BIC criterion, number of Gaussian clusters into the optimal, from the point of view of their statistical separability, superclusters. The algorithm consists of three stages: representation of the dataset as a mixture of Gaussian distributions - clusters, which number is determined based on the minimum of the BIC criterion; using the Mahalanobis distance, to estimate the distances between the clusters and cluster sizes; combining the resulting clusters into superclusters using the DBSCAN method by finding its hyperparameter (maximum distance) providing maximum value of introduced matrix quality criterion at maximum number of superclusters. The matrix quality criterion corresponds to the proportion of statistically significant separated superclusters among all found superclusters. The algorithm has only one hyperparameter - statistical significance level, and automatically detects optimal number and shape of superclusters based of statistical hypothesis testing approach. The algorithm demonstrates a good results on test datasets in noise and noiseless situations. An essential advantage of the algorithm is its ability to predict correct supercluster for new data based on already trained clusterer and perform soft (fuzzy) clustering. The disadvantages of the algorithm are: its low speed and stochastic nature of the final clustering. It requires a sufficiently large dataset for clustering, which is typical for many statistical methods.

In recent years, concept-based approaches have emerged as some of the most promising explainability methods to help us interpret the decisions of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). These methods seek to discover intelligible visual "concepts" buried within the complex patterns of ANN activations in two key steps: (1) concept extraction followed by (2) importance estimation. While these two steps are shared across methods, they all differ in their specific implementations. Here, we introduce a unifying theoretical framework that recast the first step - concept extraction problem - as a special case of dictionary learning, and we formalize the second step - concept importance estimation - as a more general form of attribution method. This framework offers several advantages as it allows us: (i) to propose new evaluation metrics for comparing different concept extraction approaches; (ii) to leverage modern attribution methods and evaluation metrics to extend and systematically evaluate state-of-the-art concept-based approaches and importance estimation techniques; (iii) to derive theoretical guarantees regarding the optimality of such methods. We further leverage our framework to try to tackle a crucial question in explainability: how to efficiently identify clusters of data points that are classified based on a similar shared strategy. To illustrate these findings and to highlight the main strategies of a model, we introduce a visual representation called the strategic cluster graph. Finally, we present Lens, a dedicated website that offers a complete compilation of these visualizations for all classes of the ImageNet dataset.