Learning curve extrapolation aims to predict model performance in later epochs of training, based on the performance in earlier epochs. In this work, we argue that, while the inherent uncertainty in the extrapolation of learning curves warrants a Bayesian approach, existing methods are (i) overly restrictive, and/or (ii) computationally expensive. We describe the first application of prior-data fitted neural networks (PFNs) in this context. A PFN is a transformer, pre-trained on data generated from a prior, to perform approximate Bayesian inference in a single forward pass. We propose LC-PFN, a PFN trained to extrapolate 10 million artificial right-censored learning curves generated from a parametric prior proposed in prior art using MCMC. We demonstrate that LC-PFN can approximate the posterior predictive distribution more accurately than MCMC, while being over 10 000 times faster. We also show that the same LC-PFN achieves competitive performance extrapolating a total of 20 000 real learning curves from four learning curve benchmarks (LCBench, NAS-Bench-201, Taskset, and PD1) that stem from training a wide range of model architectures (MLPs, CNNs, RNNs, and Transformers) on 53 different datasets with varying input modalities (tabular, image, text, and protein data). Finally, we investigate its potential in the context of model selection and find that a simple LC-PFN based predictive early stopping criterion obtains 2 - 6x speed-ups on 45 of these datasets, at virtually no overhead.

In this work, we investigate the performance of a joint sensing and communication (JSC) network consisting of multiple base stations (BSs) that cooperate through a fusion center (FC) to exchange information about the sensed environment while concurrently establishing communication links with a set of user equipments (UEs). Each BS within the network operates as a monostatic radar system, enabling comprehensive scanning of the monitored area and generating range-angle maps that provide information regarding the position of a group of heterogeneous objects. The acquired maps are subsequently fused in the FC. Then, a convolutional neural network (CNN) is employed to infer the category of the targets, e.g., pedestrians or vehicles, and such information is exploited by an adaptive clustering algorithm to group the detections originating from the same target more effectively. Finally, two multi-target tracking algorithms, the probability hypothesis density (PHD) filter and multi-Bernoulli mixture (MBM) filter, are applied to estimate the state of the targets. Numerical results demonstrated that our framework could provide remarkable sensing performance, achieving an optimal sub-pattern assignment (OSPA) less than 60 cm, while keeping communication services to UEs with a reduction of the communication capacity in the order of 10% to 20%. The impact of the number of BSs engaged in sensing is also examined, and we show that in the specific case study, 3 BSs ensure a localization error below 1 m.

Bayesian Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) define a flexible probabilistic framework to model categorical, ordinal and continuous data, and are widely used in practice. However, exact inference in GLMs is prohibitively expensive for large datasets, thus requiring approximations in practice. The resulting approximation error adversely impacts the reliability of the model and is not accounted for in the uncertainty of the prediction. In this work, we introduce a family of iterative methods that explicitly model this error. They are uniquely suited to parallel modern computing hardware, efficiently recycle computations, and compress information to reduce both the time and memory requirements for GLMs. As we demonstrate on a realistically large classification problem, our method significantly accelerates training by explicitly trading off reduced computation for increased uncertainty.

Calibration ensures that probabilistic forecasts meaningfully capture uncertainty by requiring that predicted probabilities align with empirical frequencies. However, many existing calibration methods are specialized for post-hoc recalibration, which can worsen the sharpness of forecasts. Drawing on the insight that calibration can be viewed as a distribution matching task, we introduce kernel-based calibration metrics that unify and generalize popular forms of calibration for both classification and regression. These metrics admit differentiable sample estimates, making it easy to incorporate a calibration objective into empirical risk minimization. Furthermore, we provide intuitive mechanisms to tailor calibration metrics to a decision task, and enforce accurate loss estimation and no regret decisions. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that employing these metrics as regularizers enhances calibration, sharpness, and decision-making across a range of regression and classification tasks, outperforming methods relying solely on post-hoc recalibration.

Identifying latent variables and causal structures from observational data is essential to many real-world applications involving biological data, medical data, and unstructured data such as images and languages. However, this task can be highly challenging, especially when observed variables are generated by causally related latent variables and the relationships are nonlinear. In this work, we investigate the identification problem for nonlinear latent hierarchical causal models in which observed variables are generated by a set of causally related latent variables, and some latent variables may not have observed children. We show that the identifiability of causal structures and latent variables (up to invertible transformations) can be achieved under mild assumptions: on causal structures, we allow for multiple paths between any pair of variables in the graph, which relaxes latent tree assumptions in prior work; on structural functions, we permit general nonlinearity and multi-dimensional continuous variables, alleviating existing work's parametric assumptions. Specifically, we first develop an identification criterion in the form of novel identifiability guarantees for an elementary latent variable model. Leveraging this criterion, we show that both causal structures and latent variables of the hierarchical model can be identified asymptotically by explicitly constructing an estimation procedure. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first to establish identifiability guarantees for both causal structures and latent variables in nonlinear latent hierarchical models.

In privacy-preserving machine learning, differentially private stochastic gradient descent (DP-SGD) performs worse than SGD due to per-sample gradient clipping and noise addition. A recent focus in private learning research is improving the performance of DP-SGD on private data by incorporating priors that are learned on real-world public data. In this work, we explore how we can improve the privacy-utility tradeoff of DP-SGD by learning priors from images generated by random processes and transferring these priors to private data. We propose DP-RandP, a three-phase approach. We attain new state-of-the-art accuracy when training from scratch on CIFAR10, CIFAR100, MedMNIST and ImageNet for a range of privacy budgets $\varepsilon \in [1, 8]$. In particular, we improve the previous best reported accuracy on CIFAR10 from $60.6 \%$ to $72.3 \%$ for $\varepsilon=1$.

Researchers in explainable artificial intelligence have developed numerous methods for helping users understand the predictions of complex supervised learning models. By contrast, explaining the $\textit{uncertainty}$ of model outputs has received relatively little attention. We adapt the popular Shapley value framework to explain various types of predictive uncertainty, quantifying each feature's contribution to the conditional entropy of individual model outputs. We consider games with modified characteristic functions and find deep connections between the resulting Shapley values and fundamental quantities from information theory and conditional independence testing. We outline inference procedures for finite sample error rate control with provable guarantees, and implement efficient algorithms that perform well in a range of experiments on real and simulated data. Our method has applications to covariate shift detection, active learning, feature selection, and active feature-value acquisition.

Supervised learning problems with side information in the form of a network arise frequently in applications in genomics, proteomics and neuroscience. For example, in genetic applications, the network side information can accurately capture background biological information on the intricate relations among the relevant genes. In this paper, we initiate a study of Bayes optimal learning in high-dimensional linear regression with network side information. To this end, we first introduce a simple generative model (called the Reg-Graph model) which posits a joint distribution for the supervised data and the observed network through a common set of latent parameters. Next, we introduce an iterative algorithm based on Approximate Message Passing (AMP) which is provably Bayes optimal under very general conditions. In addition, we characterize the limiting mutual information between the latent signal and the data observed, and thus precisely quantify the statistical impact of the network side information. Finally, supporting numerical experiments suggest that the introduced algorithm has excellent performance in finite samples.

Diffusion processes are a class of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) providing a rich family of expressive models that arise naturally in dynamic modelling tasks. Probabilistic inference and learning under generative models with latent processes endowed with a non-linear diffusion process prior are intractable problems. We build upon work within variational inference, approximating the posterior process as a linear diffusion process, and point out pathologies in the approach. We propose an alternative parameterization of the Gaussian variational process using a site-based exponential family description. This allows us to trade a slow inference algorithm with fixed-point iterations for a fast algorithm for convex optimization akin to natural gradient descent, which also provides a better objective for learning model parameters.

One of the central questions in the theory of deep learning is to understand how neural networks learn hierarchical features. The ability of deep networks to extract salient features is crucial to both their outstanding generalization ability and the modern deep learning paradigm of pretraining and finetuneing. However, this feature learning process remains poorly understood from a theoretical perspective, with existing analyses largely restricted to two-layer networks. In this work we show that three-layer neural networks have provably richer feature learning capabilities than two-layer networks. We analyze the features learned by a three-layer network trained with layer-wise gradient descent, and present a general purpose theorem which upper bounds the sample complexity and width needed to achieve low test error when the target has specific hierarchical structure. We instantiate our framework in specific statistical learning settings -- single-index models and functions of quadratic features -- and show that in the latter setting three-layer networks obtain a sample complexity improvement over all existing guarantees for two-layer networks. Crucially, this sample complexity improvement relies on the ability of three-layer networks to efficiently learn nonlinear features. We then establish a concrete optimization-based depth separation by constructing a function which is efficiently learnable via gradient descent on a three-layer network, yet cannot be learned efficiently by a two-layer network. Our work makes progress towards understanding the provable benefit of three-layer neural networks over two-layer networks in the feature learning regime.