Statistical Learning
Software Repositories and Machine Learning Research in Cyber Security
Vanamala, Mounika, Bryant, Keith, Caravella, Alex
In today's rapidly evolving technological landscape and advanced software development, the rise in cyber security attacks has become a pressing concern. The integration of robust cyber security defenses has become essential across all phases of software development. It holds particular significance in identifying critical cyber security vulnerabilities at the initial stages of the software development life cycle, notably during the requirement phase. Through the utilization of cyber security repositories like The Common Attack Pattern Enumeration and Classification (CAPEC) from MITRE and the Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE) databases, attempts have been made to leverage topic modeling and machine learning for the detection of these early-stage vulnerabilities in the software requirements process. Past research themes have returned successful outcomes in attempting to automate vulnerability identification for software developers, employing a mixture of unsupervised machine learning methodologies such as LDA and topic modeling. Looking ahead, in our pursuit to improve automation and establish connections between software requirements and vulnerabilities, our strategy entails adopting a variety of supervised machine learning techniques. This array encompasses Support Vector Machines (SVM), Na\"ive Bayes, random forest, neural networking and eventually transitioning into deep learning for our investigation. In the face of the escalating complexity of cyber security, the question of whether machine learning can enhance the identification of vulnerabilities in diverse software development scenarios is a paramount consideration, offering crucial assistance to software developers in developing secure software.
Structure Learning with Adaptive Random Neighborhood Informed MCMC
Caron, Alberto, Liang, Xitong, Livingstone, Samuel, Griffin, Jim
In this paper, we introduce a novel MCMC sampler, PARNI-DAG, for a fully-Bayesian approach to the problem of structure learning under observational data. Under the assumption of causal sufficiency, the algorithm allows for approximate sampling directly from the posterior distribution on Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs). PARNI-DAG performs efficient sampling of DAGs via locally informed, adaptive random neighborhood proposal that results in better mixing properties. In addition, to ensure better scalability with the number of nodes, we couple PARNI-DAG with a pre-tuning procedure of the sampler's parameters that exploits a skeleton graph derived through some constraint-based or scoring-based algorithms. Thanks to these novel features, PARNI-DAG quickly converges to high-probability regions and is less likely to get stuck in local modes in the presence of high correlation between nodes in high-dimensional settings. After introducing the technical novelties in PARNI-DAG, we empirically demonstrate its mixing efficiency and accuracy in learning DAG structures on a variety of experiments.
Improving Cardiovascular Disease Prediction Through Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models: A Case Study on Myocardial Infarction
Miah, Jonayet, Ca, Duc M, Sayed, Md Abu, Lipu, Ehsanur Rashid, Mahmud, Fuad, Arafat, S M Yasir
Cardiovascular disease remains a leading cause of mortality in the contemporary world. Its association with smoking, elevated blood pressure, and cholesterol levels underscores the significance of these risk factors. This study addresses the challenge of predicting myocardial illness, a formidable task in medical research. Accurate predictions are pivotal for refining healthcare strategies. This investigation conducts a comparative analysis of six distinct machine learning models: Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, Bagging, XGBoost, and LightGBM. The attained outcomes exhibit promise, with accuracy rates as follows: Logistic Regression (81.00%), Support Vector Machine (75.01%), XGBoost (92.72%), LightGBM (90.60%), Decision Tree (82.30%), and Bagging (83.01%). Notably, XGBoost emerges as the top-performing model. These findings underscore its potential to enhance predictive precision for coronary infarction. As the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors persists, incorporating advanced machine learning techniques holds the potential to refine proactive medical interventions.
Hessian Eigenvectors and Principal Component Analysis of Neural Network Weight Matrices
This study delves into the intricate dynamics of trained deep neural networks and their relationships with network parameters. Trained networks predominantly continue training in a single direction, known as the drift mode. This drift mode can be explained by the quadratic potential model of the loss function, suggesting a slow exponential decay towards the potential minima. We unveil a correlation between Hessian eigenvectors and network weights. This relationship, hinging on the magnitude of eigenvalues, allows us to discern parameter directions within the network. Notably, the significance of these directions relies on two defining attributes: the curvature of their potential wells (indicated by the magnitude of Hessian eigenvalues) and their alignment with the weight vectors. Our exploration extends to the decomposition of weight matrices through singular value decomposition. This approach proves practical in identifying critical directions within the Hessian, considering both their magnitude and curvature. Furthermore, our examination showcases the applicability of principal component analysis in approximating the Hessian, with update parameters emerging as a superior choice over weights for this purpose. Remarkably, our findings unveil a similarity between the largest Hessian eigenvalues of individual layers and the entire network. Notably, higher eigenvalues are concentrated more in deeper layers. Leveraging these insights, we venture into addressing catastrophic forgetting, a challenge of neural networks when learning new tasks while retaining knowledge from previous ones. By applying our discoveries, we formulate an effective strategy to mitigate catastrophic forgetting, offering a possible solution that can be applied to networks of varying scales, including larger architectures.
Generalizing Importance Weighting to A Universal Solver for Distribution Shift Problems
Fang, Tongtong, Lu, Nan, Niu, Gang, Sugiyama, Masashi
Distribution shift (DS) may have two levels: the distribution itself changes, and the support (i.e., the set where the probability density is non-zero) also changes. When considering the support change between the training and test distributions, there can be four cases: (i) they exactly match; (ii) the training support is wider (and thus covers the test support); (iii) the test support is wider; (iv) they partially overlap. Existing methods are good at cases (i) and (ii), while cases (iii) and (iv) are more common nowadays but still under-explored. In this paper, we generalize importance weighting (IW), a golden solver for cases (i) and (ii), to a universal solver for all cases. Specifically, we first investigate why IW might fail in cases (iii) and (iv); based on the findings, we propose generalized IW (GIW) that could handle cases (iii) and (iv) and would reduce to IW in cases (i) and (ii). In GIW, the test support is split into an in-training (IT) part and an out-of-training (OOT) part, and the expected risk is decomposed into a weighted classification term over the IT part and a standard classification term over the OOT part, which guarantees the risk consistency of GIW. Then, the implementation of GIW consists of three components: (a) the split of validation data is carried out by the one-class support vector machine, (b) the first term of the empirical risk can be handled by any IW algorithm given training data and IT validation data, and (c) the second term just involves OOT validation data. Experiments demonstrate that GIW is a universal solver for DS problems, outperforming IW methods in cases (iii) and (iv).
Inferring networks from time series: a neural approach
Gaskin, Thomas, Pavliotis, Grigorios A., Girolami, Mark
Network structures underlie the dynamics of many complex phenomena, from gene regulation and foodwebs to power grids and social media. Yet, as they often cannot be observed directly, their connectivities must be inferred from observations of the dynamics to which they give rise. In this work we present a powerful computational method to infer large network adjacency matrices from time series data using a neural network, in order to provide uncertainty quantification on the prediction in a manner that reflects both the degree to which the inference problem is underdetermined as well as the noise on the data. This is a feature that other approaches have hitherto been lacking. We demonstrate our method's capabilities by inferring line failure locations in the British power grid from its response to a power cut, providing probability densities on each edge and allowing the use of hypothesis testing to make meaningful probabilistic statements about the location of the cut. Our method is significantly more accurate than both Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling and least squares regression on noisy data and when the problem is underdetermined, while naturally extending to the case of non-linear dynamics, which we demonstrate by learning an entire cost matrix for a non-linear model of economic activity in Greater London. Not having been specifically engineered for network inference, this method in fact represents a general parameter estimation scheme that is applicable to any high-dimensional parameter space.
Rethinking Explaining Graph Neural Networks via Non-parametric Subgraph Matching
Wu, Fang, Li, Siyuan, Jin, Xurui, Jiang, Yinghui, Radev, Dragomir, Niu, Zhangming, Li, Stan Z.
The success of graph neural networks (GNNs) provokes the question about explainability: ``Which fraction of the input graph is the most determinant of the prediction?'' Particularly, parametric explainers prevail in existing approaches because of their more robust capability to decipher the black-box (i.e., target GNNs). In this paper, based on the observation that graphs typically share some common motif patterns, we propose a novel non-parametric subgraph matching framework, dubbed MatchExplainer, to explore explanatory subgraphs. It couples the target graph with other counterpart instances and identifies the most crucial joint substructure by minimizing the node corresponding-based distance. Moreover, we note that present graph sampling or node-dropping methods usually suffer from the false positive sampling problem. To alleviate this issue, we designed a new augmentation paradigm named MatchDrop. It takes advantage of MatchExplainer to fix the most informative portion of the graph and merely operates graph augmentations on the rest less informative part. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show the effectiveness of our MatchExplainer by outperforming all state-of-the-art parametric baselines with significant margins. Results also demonstrate that MatchDrop is a general scheme to be equipped with GNNs for enhanced performance. The code is available at: https://github.com/smiles724/MatchExplainer.
EVBattery: A Large-Scale Electric Vehicle Dataset for Battery Health and Capacity Estimation
He, Haowei, Zhang, Jingzhao, Wang, Yanan, Jiang, Benben, Huang, Shaobo, Wang, Chen, Zhang, Yang, Xiong, Gengang, Han, Xuebing, Guo, Dongxu, He, Guannan, Ouyang, Minggao
Electric vehicles (EVs) play an important role in reducing carbon emissions. As EV adoption accelerates, safety issues caused by EV batteries have become an important research topic. In order to benchmark and develop data-driven methods for this task, we introduce a large and comprehensive dataset of EV batteries. Our dataset includes charging records collected from hundreds of EVs from three manufacturers over several years. Our dataset is the first large-scale public dataset on real-world battery data, as existing data either include only several vehicles or is collected in the lab environment. Meanwhile, our dataset features two types of labels, corresponding to two key tasks - battery health estimation and battery capacity estimation. In addition to demonstrating how existing deep learning algorithms can be applied to this task, we further develop an algorithm that exploits the data structure of battery systems. Our algorithm achieves better results and shows that a customized method can improve model performances. We hope that this public dataset provides valuable resources for researchers, policymakers, and industry professionals to better understand the dynamics of EV battery aging and support the transition toward a sustainable transportation system.
Invariant-Feature Subspace Recovery: A New Class of Provable Domain Generalization Algorithms
Wang, Haoxiang, Balasubramaniam, Gargi, Si, Haozhe, Li, Bo, Zhao, Han
Domain generalization asks for models trained over a set of training environments to generalize well in unseen test environments. Recently, a series of algorithms such as Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) have been proposed for domain generalization. However, Rosenfeld et al. (2021) shows that in a simple linear data model, even if non-convexity issues are ignored, IRM and its extensions cannot generalize to unseen environments with less than $d_s+1$ training environments, where $d_s$ is the dimension of the spurious-feature subspace. In this work, we propose Invariant-feature Subspace Recovery (ISR): a new class of algorithms to achieve provable domain generalization across the settings of classification and regression problems. First, in the binary classification setup of Rosenfeld et al. (2021), we show that our first algorithm, ISR-Mean, can identify the subspace spanned by invariant features from the first-order moments of the class-conditional distributions, and achieve provable domain generalization with $d_s+1$ training environments. Our second algorithm, ISR-Cov, further reduces the required number of training environments to $O(1)$ using the information of second-order moments. Notably, unlike IRM, our algorithms bypass non-convexity issues and enjoy global convergence guarantees. Next, we extend ISR-Mean to the more general setting of multi-class classification and propose ISR-Multiclass, which leverages class information and provably recovers the invariant-feature subspace with $\lceil d_s/k\rceil+1$ training environments for $k$-class classification. Finally, for regression problems, we propose ISR-Regression that can identify the invariant-feature subspace with $d_s+1$ training environments. Empirically, we demonstrate the superior performance of our ISRs on synthetic benchmarks. Further, ISR can be used as post-processing methods for feature extractors such as neural nets.
Stochastic Smoothed Gradient Descent Ascent for Federated Minimax Optimization
Shen, Wei, Huang, Minhui, Zhang, Jiawei, Shen, Cong
In recent years, federated minimax optimization has attracted growing interest due to its extensive applications in various machine learning tasks. While Smoothed Alternative Gradient Descent Ascent (Smoothed-AGDA) has proved its success in centralized nonconvex minimax optimization, how and whether smoothing technique could be helpful in federated setting remains unexplored. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm termed Federated Stochastic Smoothed Gradient Descent Ascent (FESS-GDA), which utilizes the smoothing technique for federated minimax optimization. We prove that FESS-GDA can be uniformly used to solve several classes of federated minimax problems and prove new or better analytical convergence results for these settings. We showcase the practical efficiency of FESS-GDA in practical federated learning tasks of training generative adversarial networks (GANs) and fair classification.