Double-descent refers to the unexpected drop in test loss of a learning algorithm beyond an interpolating threshold with over-parameterization, which is not predicted by information criteria in their classical forms due to the limitations in the standard asymptotic approach. We update these analyses using the information risk minimization framework and provide Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) for models learned by the Gibbs algorithm. Notably, the penalty terms for the Gibbs-based AIC and BIC correspond to specific information measures, i.e., symmetrized KL information and KL divergence. We extend this information-theoretic analysis to over-parameterized models by providing two different Gibbs-based BICs to compute the marginal likelihood of random feature models in the regime where the number of parameters $p$ and the number of samples $n$ tend to infinity, with $p/n$ fixed. Our experiments demonstrate that the Gibbs-based BIC can select the high-dimensional model and reveal the mismatch between marginal likelihood and population risk in the over-parameterized regime, providing new insights to understand double-descent.

Granular ball computing (GBC), as an efficient, robust, and scalable learning method, has become a popular research topic of granular computing. GBC includes two stages: granular ball generation (GBG) and multi-granularity learning based on the granular ball (GB). However, the stability and efficiency of existing GBG methods need to be further improved due to their strong dependence on $k$-means or $k$-division. In addition, GB-based classifiers only unilaterally consider the GB's geometric characteristics to construct classification rules, but the GB's quality is ignored. Therefore, in this paper, based on the attention mechanism, a fast and stable GBG (GBG++) method is proposed first. Specifically, the proposed GBG++ method only needs to calculate the distances from the data-driven center to the undivided samples when splitting each GB instead of randomly selecting the center and calculating the distances between it and all samples. Moreover, an outlier detection method is introduced to identify local outliers. Consequently, the GBG++ method can significantly improve effectiveness, robustness, and efficiency while being absolutely stable. Second, considering the influence of the sample size within the GB on the GB's quality, based on the GBG++ method, an improved GB-based $k$-nearest neighbors algorithm (GB$k$NN++) is presented, which can reduce misclassification at the class boundary. Finally, the experimental results indicate that the proposed method outperforms several existing GB-based classifiers and classical machine learning classifiers on $24$ public benchmark datasets.

Unsupervised clustering is widely used to explore large corpora, but existing formulations neither consider the users' goals nor explain clusters' meanings. We propose a new task formulation, "Goal-Driven Clustering with Explanations" (GoalEx), which represents both the goal and the explanations as free-form language descriptions. For example, to categorize the errors made by a summarization system, the input to GoalEx is a corpus of annotator-written comments for system-generated summaries and a goal description "cluster the comments based on why the annotators think the summary is imperfect.''; the outputs are text clusters each with an explanation ("this cluster mentions that the summary misses important context information."), which relates to the goal and precisely explain which comments should (not) belong to a cluster. To tackle GoalEx, we prompt a language model with "[corpus subset] + [goal] + Brainstorm a list of explanations each representing a cluster."; then we classify whether each sample belongs to a cluster based on its explanation; finally, we use integer linear programming to select a subset of candidate clusters to cover most samples while minimizing overlaps. Under both automatic and human evaluation on corpora with or without labels, our method produces more accurate and goal-related explanations than prior methods. We release our data and implementation at https://github.com/ZihanWangKi/GoalEx.

Driver stress is a major cause of car accidents and death worldwide. Furthermore, persistent stress is a health problem, contributing to hypertension and other diseases of the cardiovascular system. Stress has a measurable impact on heart and breathing rates and stress levels can be inferred from such measurements. Galvanic skin response is a common test to measure the perspiration caused by both physiological and psychological stress, as well as extreme emotions. In this paper, galvanic skin response is used to estimate the ground truth stress levels. A feature selection technique based on the minimal redundancy-maximal relevance method is then applied to multiple heart rate variability and breathing rate metrics to identify a novel and optimal combination for use in detecting stress. The support vector machine algorithm with a radial basis function kernel was used along with these features to reliably predict stress. The proposed method has achieved a high level of accuracy on the target dataset.

Diagonal linear networks (DLNs) are a toy simplification of artificial neural networks; they consist in a quadratic reparametrization of linear regression inducing a sparse implicit regularization. In this paper, we describe the trajectory of the gradient flow of DLNs in the limit of small initialization. We show that incremental learning is effectively performed in the limit: coordinates are successively activated, while the iterate is the minimizer of the loss constrained to have support on the active coordinates only. This shows that the sparse implicit regularization of DLNs decreases with time. This work is restricted to the underparametrized regime with anti-correlated features for technical reasons.

Analysis of multivariate healthcare time series data is inherently challenging: irregular sampling, noisy and missing values, and heterogeneous patient groups with different dynamics violating exchangeability. In addition, interpretability and quantification of uncertainty are critically important. Here, we propose a novel class of models, a mixture of coupled hidden Markov models (M-CHMM), and demonstrate how it elegantly overcomes these challenges. To make the model learning feasible, we derive two algorithms to sample the sequences of the latent variables in the CHMM: samplers based on (i) particle filtering and (ii) factorized approximation. Compared to existing inference methods, our algorithms are computationally tractable, improve mixing, and allow for likelihood estimation, which is necessary to learn the mixture model. Experiments on challenging real-world epidemiological and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the advantages of the M-CHMM: improved data fit, capacity to efficiently handle missing and noisy measurements, improved prediction accuracy, and ability to identify interpretable subsets in the data.

A mixture of multivariate Poisson-log normal factor analyzers is introduced by imposing constraints on the covariance matrix, which resulted in flexible models for clustering purposes. In particular, a class of eight parsimonious mixture models based on the mixtures of factor analyzers model are introduced. Variational Gaussian approximation is used for parameter estimation, and information criteria are used for model selection. The proposed models are explored in the context of clustering discrete data arising from RNA sequencing studies. Using real and simulated data, the models are shown to give favourable clustering performance. The GitHub R package for this work is available at https://github.com/anjalisilva/mixMPLNFA and is released under the open-source MIT license.

Current optical vegetation indices (VIs) for monitoring forest ecosystems are widely used in various applications. However, continuous monitoring based on optical satellite data can be hampered by atmospheric effects such as clouds. On the contrary, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data can offer insightful and systematic forest monitoring with complete time series due to signal penetration through clouds and day and night acquisitions. The goal of this work is to overcome the issues affecting optical data with SAR data and serve as a substitute for estimating optical VIs for forests using machine learning. Time series of four VIs (LAI, FAPAR, EVI and NDVI) were estimated using multitemporal Sentinel-1 SAR and ancillary data. This was enabled by creating a paired multi-temporal and multi-modal dataset in Google Earth Engine (GEE), including temporally and spatially aligned Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, digital elevation model (DEM), weather and land cover datasets (MMT-GEE). The use of ancillary features generated from DEM and weather data improved the results. The open-source Automatic Machine Learning (AutoML) approach, auto-sklearn, outperformed Random Forest Regression for three out of four VIs, while a 1-hour optimization length was enough to achieve sufficient results with an R2 of 69-84% low errors (0.05-0.32 of MAE depending on VI). Great agreement was also found for selected case studies in the time series analysis and in the spatial comparison between the original and estimated SAR-based VIs. In general, compared to VIs from currently freely available optical satellite data and available global VI products, a better temporal resolution (up to 240 measurements/year) and a better spatial resolution (20 m) were achieved using estimated SAR-based VIs. A great advantage of the SAR-based VI is the ability to detect abrupt forest changes with a sub-weekly temporal accuracy.

Although linear and quadratic discriminant analysis are widely recognized classical methods, they can encounter significant challenges when dealing with non-Gaussian distributions or contaminated datasets. This is primarily due to their reliance on the Gaussian assumption, which lacks robustness. We first explain and review the classical methods to address this limitation and then present a novel approach that overcomes these issues. In this new approach, the model considered is an arbitrary Elliptically Symmetrical (ES) distribution per cluster with its own arbitrary scale parameter. This flexible model allows for potentially diverse and independent samples that may not follow identical distributions. By deriving a new decision rule, we demonstrate that maximum-likelihood parameter estimation and classification are simple, efficient, and robust compared to state-of-the-art methods.

To form precipitation datasets that are accurate and, at the same time, have high spatial densities, data from satellites and gauges are often merged in the literature. However, uncertainty estimates for the data acquired in this manner are scarcely provided, although the importance of uncertainty quantification in predictive modelling is widely recognized. Furthermore, the benefits that machine learning can bring to the task of providing such estimates have not been broadly realized and properly explored through benchmark experiments. The present study aims at filling in this specific gap by conducting the first benchmark tests on the topic. On a large dataset that comprises 15-year-long monthly data spanning across the contiguous United States, we extensively compared six learners that are, by their construction, appropriate for predictive uncertainty quantification. These are the quantile regression (QR), quantile regression forests (QRF), generalized random forests (GRF), gradient boosting machines (GBM), light gradient boosting machines (LightGBM) and quantile regression neural networks (QRNN). The comparison referred to the competence of the learners in issuing predictive quantiles at nine levels that facilitate a good approximation of the entire predictive probability distribution, and was primarily based on the quantile and continuous ranked probability skill scores. Three types of predictor variables (i.e., satellite precipitation variables, distances between a point of interest and satellite grid points, and elevation at a point of interest) were used in the comparison and were additionally compared with each other. This additional comparison was based on the explainable machine learning concept of feature importance. The results suggest that the order from the best to the worst of the learners for the task investigated is the following: LightGBM, QRF, GRF, GBM, QRNN and QR...