Such assessments are Response Theory (IRT) to capture temporal dynamics in referred to as formative assessments and are used not only learner ability. While these models have the potential to allow to track student learning and make appropriate instructional instructional systems to actively monitor the evolution interventions, but also to allow learners to practice their of learner proficiency in real time, existing dynamic item response knowledge and skills, and make necessary self-corrections models rely on expensive inference algorithms that [17]. When learning occurs alongside assessment, learner scale poorly to massive datasets. In this work, we propose proficiency is longitudinal rather than inert, and the assumption Variational Temporal IRT (VTIRT) for fast and accurate of static proficiency makes standard IRT less suitable inference of dynamic learner proficiency. VTIRT offers orders as a model of proficiency measurement. of magnitude speedup in inference runtime while still providing accurate inference. Moreover, the proposed algorithm Dynamic Item Response models [14, 11] mitigate this issue is intrinsically interpretable by virtue of its modular by removing the assumptions of static ability and instead allowing design. When applied to 9 real student datasets, VTIRT it to stochastically change over time, but existing inference consistently yields improvements in predicting future learner methods rely on expensive iterative algorithms with performance over other learner proficiency models.

Pairwise measures of dependence are a common tool to map data in the early stages of analysis with several modern examples based on maximized partitions of the pairwise sample space. Following a short survey of modern measures of dependence, we introduce a new measure which recursively splits the ranks of a pair of variables to partition the sample space and computes the $\chi^2$ statistic on the resulting bins. Splitting logic is detailed for splits maximizing a score function and randomly selected splits. Simulations indicate that random splitting produces a statistic conservatively approximated by the $\chi^2$ distribution without a loss of power to detect numerous different data patterns compared to maximized binning. Though it seems to add no power to detect dependence, maximized recursive binning is shown to produce a natural visualization of the data and the measure. Applying maximized recursive rank binning to S&P 500 constituent data suggests the automatic detection of tail dependence.

Consider a semi-supervised setting with a labeled dataset of binary responses and predictors and an unlabeled dataset with only the predictors. Logistic regression is equivalent to an exponential tilt model in the labeled population. For semi-supervised estimation, we develop further analysis and understanding of a statistical approach using exponential tilt mixture (ETM) models and maximum nonparametric likelihood estimation, while allowing that the class proportions may differ between the unlabeled and labeled data. We derive asymptotic properties of ETM-based estimation and demonstrate improved efficiency over supervised logistic regression in a random sampling setup and an outcome-stratified sampling setup previously used. Moreover, we reconcile such efficiency improvement with the existing semiparametric efficiency theory when the class proportions in the unlabeled and labeled data are restricted to be the same. We also provide a simulation study to numerically illustrate our theoretical findings.

Mixture models arise in many regression problems, but most methods have seen limited adoption partly due to these algorithms' highly-tailored and model-specific nature. On the other hand, transformers are flexible, neural sequence models that present the intriguing possibility of providing general-purpose prediction methods, even in this mixture setting. In this work, we investigate the hypothesis that transformers can learn an optimal predictor for mixtures of regressions. We construct a generative process for a mixture of linear regressions for which the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is given by data-driven exponential weights on a finite set of parameters. We observe that transformers achieve low mean-squared error on data generated via this process. By probing the transformer's output at inference time, we also show that transformers typically make predictions that are close to the optimal predictor. Our experiments also demonstrate that transformers can learn mixtures of regressions in a sample-efficient fashion and are somewhat robust to distribution shifts. We complement our experimental observations by proving constructively that the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is indeed implementable by a transformer.

We establish Frequentist properties, i.e., posterior consistency, asymptotic normality, and posterior contraction rates, for the distributed (non-)Bayes Inference problem for a set of agents connected over a network. These results are motivated by the need to analyze large, decentralized datasets, where distributed (non)-Bayesian inference has become a critical research area across multiple fields, including statistics, machine learning, and economics. Our results show that, under appropriate assumptions on the communication graph, distributed (non)-Bayesian inference retains parametric efficiency while enhancing robustness in uncertainty quantification. We also explore the trade-off between statistical efficiency and communication efficiency by examining how the design and size of the communication graph impact the posterior contraction rate. Furthermore, we extend our analysis to time-varying graphs and apply our results to exponential family models, distributed logistic regression, and decentralized detection models.

We derive and study time-uniform confidence spheres - termed confidence sphere sequences (CSSs) - which contain the mean of random vectors with high probability simultaneously across all sample sizes. Inspired by the original work of Catoni and Giulini, we unify and extend their analysis to cover both the sequential setting and to handle a variety of distributional assumptions. More concretely, our results include an empirical-Bernstein CSS for bounded random vectors (resulting in a novel empirical-Bernstein confidence interval), a CSS for sub-$\psi$ random vectors, and a CSS for heavy-tailed random vectors based on a sequentially valid Catoni-Giulini estimator. Finally, we provide a version of our empirical-Bernstein CSS that is robust to contamination by Huber noise.

Feedforward neural networks (FNNs) are typically viewed as pure prediction algorithms, and their strong predictive performance has led to their use in many machine-learning applications. However, their flexibility comes with an interpretability trade-off; thus, FNNs have been historically less popular among statisticians. Nevertheless, classical statistical theory, such as significance testing and uncertainty quantification, is still relevant. Supplementing FNNs with methods of statistical inference, and covariate-effect visualisations, can shift the focus away from black-box prediction and make FNNs more akin to traditional statistical models. This can allow for more inferential analysis, and, hence, make FNNs more accessible within the statistical-modelling context.

Many datasets suffer from missing values due to various reasons,which not only increases the processing difficulty of related tasks but also reduces the accuracy of classification. To address this problem, the mainstream approach is to use missing value imputation to complete the dataset. Existing imputation methods estimate the missing parts based on the observed values in the original feature space, and they treat all features as equally important during data completion, while in fact different features have different importance. Therefore, we have designed an imputation method that considers feature importance. This algorithm iteratively performs matrix completion and feature importance learning, and specifically, matrix completion is based on a filling loss that incorporates feature importance. Our experimental analysis involves three types of datasets: synthetic datasets with different noisy features and missing values, real-world datasets with artificially generated missing values, and real-world datasets originally containing missing values. The results on these datasets consistently show that the proposed method outperforms the existing five imputation algorithms.To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that considers feature importance in the imputation model.

It has become common sense that transferring intrinsic information from teachers to the greatest extent can expedite a student's learning progress, especially in machine learning given versatile and powerful teacher models. Learning with their assistance has been coined knowledge distillation (KD) (Hinton et al., 2015; Lopez-Paz et al., 2015), a famous paradigm of knowledge transfer leading to remarkable empirical effectiveness in classification tasks across various downstream applications (Gou et al., 2021; Wang and Yoon, 2021; Gu et al., 2023b). The term distillation implies a belief that the inscrutable teacher(s) may possess useful yet complicated structural information, which we should be able to compress and inject into a compact one, i.e., the student model (Breiman and Shang, 1996; Buciluǎ et al., 2006; Li et al., 2014; Ba and Caruana, 2014; Allen-Zhu and Li, 2020). This has guided the community towards a line of knowledge transfer methods featuring the awareness of teacher training details or snapshots, such as the original training set, the intermediate activations, the last-layer logits (for a probabilistic classifier), the first-or second-order derivative or statistical information, and even task-specific knowledge (Hinton et al., 2015; Furlanello et al., 2018; Cho and Hariharan, 2019; Zhao et al., 2022; Romero et al., 2014; Zagoruyko and Komodakis, 2016;

This paper provides a comprehensive error analysis of learning with vector-valued random features (RF). The theory is developed for RF ridge regression in a fully general infinite-dimensional input-output setting, but nonetheless applies to and improves existing finite-dimensional analyses. In contrast to comparable work in the literature, the approach proposed here relies on a direct analysis of the underlying risk functional and completely avoids the explicit RF ridge regression solution formula in terms of random matrices. This removes the need for concentration results in random matrix theory or their generalizations to random operators. The main results established in this paper include strong consistency of vector-valued RF estimators under model misspecification and minimax optimal convergence rates in the well-specified setting. The parameter complexity (number of random features) and sample complexity (number of labeled data) required to achieve such rates are comparable with Monte Carlo intuition and free from logarithmic factors.