We propose data thinning, an approach for splitting an observation into two or more independent parts that sum to the original observation, and that follow the same distribution as the original observation, up to a (known) scaling of a parameter. This very general proposal is applicable to any convolution-closed distribution, a class that includes the Gaussian, Poisson, negative binomial, gamma, and binomial distributions, among others. Data thinning has a number of applications to model selection, evaluation, and inference. For instance, cross-validation via data thinning provides an attractive alternative to the usual approach of cross-validation via sample splitting, especially in settings in which the latter is not applicable. In simulations and in an application to single-cell RNA-sequencing data, we show that data thinning can be used to validate the results of unsupervised learning approaches, such as k-means clustering and principal components analysis, for which traditional sample splitting is unattractive or unavailable.

In domains where sample sizes are limited, efficient learning algorithms are critical. Learning using privileged information (LuPI) offers increased sample efficiency by allowing prediction models access to auxiliary information at training time which is unavailable when the models are used. In recent work, it was shown that for prediction in linear-Gaussian dynamical systems, a LuPI learner with access to intermediate time series data is never worse and often better in expectation than any unbiased classical learner. We provide new insights into this analysis and generalize it to nonlinear prediction tasks in latent dynamical systems, extending theoretical guarantees to the case where the map connecting latent variables and observations is known up to a linear transform. In addition, we propose algorithms based on random features and representation learning for the case when this map is unknown. A suite of empirical results confirm theoretical findings and show the potential of using privileged time-series information in nonlinear prediction.

In the realm of out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization tasks, fine-tuning pre-trained models has become a prevalent strategy. Different from most prior work that has focused on advancing learning algorithms, we systematically examined how pre-trained model size, pre-training data scale, and training strategies impact downstream generalization and uncertainty calibration. We evaluated 97 models across diverse pre-trained model sizes, five pre-training datasets, and five data augmentations through extensive experiments on four distribution shift datasets totaling over 100,000 GPU hours. Our results demonstrate the significant impact of pre-trained model selection, with optimal choices substantially improving OOD accuracy over algorithm improvement alone. We find larger models and bigger pre-training data improve OOD performance and calibration, in contrast to some prior studies that found modern deep networks to calibrate worse than classical shallow models. Our work underscores the overlooked importance of pre-trained model selection for out-of-distribution generalization and calibration.

Forensic toolmark comparisons are currently performed subjectively by humans, which leads to a lack of consistency and accuracy. There is little evidence that examiners can determine whether pairs of marks were made by the same tool or different tools. There is also little evidence that they can make this classification when marks are made under different conditions, such as different angles of attack or direction of mark generation. We generate original toolmark data in 3D, extract the signal from each toolmarks, and train an algorithm to compare toolmark signals objectively. We find that toolmark signals cluster by tool, and not by angle or direction. That is, the variability within tool, regardless of angle/direction, is smaller than the variability between tools. The known-match and known-non-match densities of the similarities of pairs of marks have a small overlap, even when accounting for dependencies in the data, making them a useful instrument for determining whether a new pair of marks was made by the same tool. We provide a likelihood ratio approach as a formal method for comparing toolmark signals with a measure of uncertainty. This empirically trained, open-source method can be used by forensic examiners to compare toolmarks objectively and thus improve the reliability of toolmark comparisons. This can, in turn, reduce miscarriages of justice in the criminal justice system.

Radio galaxies exhibit a rich diversity of characteristics and emit radio emissions through a variety of radiation mechanisms, making their classification into distinct types based on morphology a complex challenge. To address this challenge effectively, we introduce an innovative approach for radio galaxy classification using COSFIRE filters. These filters possess the ability to adapt to both the shape and orientation of prototype patterns within images. The COSFIRE approach is explainable, learning-free, rotation-tolerant, efficient, and does not require a huge training set. To assess the efficacy of our method, we conducted experiments on a benchmark radio galaxy data set comprising of 1180 training samples and 404 test samples. Notably, our approach achieved an average accuracy rate of 93.36\%. This achievement outperforms contemporary deep learning models, and it is the best result ever achieved on this data set. Additionally, COSFIRE filters offer better computational performance, $\sim$20$\times$ fewer operations than the DenseNet-based competing method (when comparing at the same accuracy). Our findings underscore the effectiveness of the COSFIRE filter-based approach in addressing the complexities associated with radio galaxy classification. This research contributes to advancing the field by offering a robust solution that transcends the orientation challenges intrinsic to radio galaxy observations. Our method is versatile in that it is applicable to various image classification approaches.

There is an increasing interest in leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) for managing structured data and enhancing data science processes. Despite the potential benefits, this integration poses significant questions regarding their reliability and decision-making methodologies. It highlights the importance of various factors in the model selection process, including the nature of the data, problem type, performance metrics, computational resources, interpretability vs accuracy, assumptions about data, and ethical considerations. Our objective is to elucidate and express the factors and assumptions guiding GPT-4's model selection recommendations. We employ a variability model to depict these factors and use toy datasets to evaluate both the model and the implementation of the identified heuristics. By contrasting these outcomes with heuristics from other platforms, our aim is to determine the effectiveness and distinctiveness of GPT-4's methodology. This research is committed to advancing our comprehension of AI decision-making processes, especially in the realm of model selection within data science. Our efforts are directed towards creating AI systems that are more transparent and comprehensible, contributing to a more responsible and efficient practice in data science.

In some areas such as the medical field, ML-assisted predictions or decisions can drastically impact human life. For example, breast cancer [131] can be devastating if not diagnosed in time (or at all). The use of black-box predictors in these crucial cases has deceived more than once: a classical example of which is the use of the COMPAS system by the USA judiciary system for predicting criminal recidivism [133]. Other cases where fairness has been jeopardized by the use of black-boxes are numerous: job and loan applications biased toward men [40]; mortgage-approval biased toward white applicants [122]; higher credit card limits for men [172]; etc. With time, it became clear that interpretability is crucial when it comes to understanding how a predictor behaves and thus preventing unfortunate events; as pointed out by Goodman and Flaxman [70]: "If we do not know how ML [predictors] work, we cannot check or regulate them to ensure that they do not encode discrimination against minorities [...], we will not be able to learn from instances in which it is mistaken."

The advent of Blockchain technology (BT) revolutionised the way remittance transactions are recorded. Banks and remittance organisations have shown a growing interest in exploring blockchain's potential advantages over traditional practices. This paper presents a data-driven predictive decision support approach as an innovative artefact designed for the blockchain-oriented remittance industry. Employing a theory-generating Design Science Research (DSR) approach, we have uncovered the emergence of predictive capabilities driven by transactional big data. The artefact integrates predictive analytics and Machine Learning (ML) to enable real-time remittance monitoring, empowering management decision-makers to address challenges in the uncertain digitised landscape of blockchain-oriented remittance companies. Bridging the gap between theory and practice, this research not only enhances the security of the remittance ecosystem but also lays the foundation for future predictive decision support solutions, extending the potential of predictive analytics to other domains. Additionally, the generated theory from the artifact's implementation enriches the DSR approach and fosters grounded and stakeholder theory development in the information systems domain.

Space weather phenomena like geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) and geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) pose significant risks to critical technological infrastructure. While traditional predictive models, grounded in simulation, hold theoretical robustness, they grapple with challenges, notably the assimilation of imprecise data and extensive computational complexities. In recent years, Tiny Machine Learning (TinyML) has been adopted to develop Machine Learning (ML)-enabled magnetometer systems for predicting real-time terrestrial magnetic perturbations as a proxy measure for GIC. While TinyML offers efficient, real-time data processing, its intrinsic limitations prevent the utilization of robust methods with high computational needs. This paper developed a physics-guided TinyML framework to address the above challenges. This framework integrates physics-based regularization at the stages of model training and compression, thereby augmenting the reliability of predictions. The developed pruning scheme within the framework harnesses the inherent physical characteristics of the domain, striking a balance between model size and robustness. The study presents empirical results, drawing a comprehensive comparison between the accuracy and reliability of the developed framework and its traditional counterpart. Such a comparative analysis underscores the prospective applicability of the developed framework in conceptualizing robust, ML-enabled magnetometer systems for real-time space weather forecasting.

With the development of generative models like GPT-3, it is increasingly more challenging to differentiate generated texts from human-written ones. There is a large number of studies that have demonstrated good results in bot identification. However, the majority of such works depend on supervised learning methods that require labelled data and/or prior knowledge about the bot-model architecture. In this work, we propose a bot identification algorithm that is based on unsupervised learning techniques and does not depend on a large amount of labelled data. By combining findings in semantic analysis by clustering (crisp and fuzzy) and information techniques, we construct a robust model that detects a generated text for different types of bot. We find that the generated texts tend to be more chaotic while literary works are more complex. We also demonstrate that the clustering of human texts results in fuzzier clusters in comparison to the more compact and well-separated clusters of bot-generated texts.