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 Statistical Learning


A study on the impact of pre-trained model on Just-In-Time defect prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Previous researchers conducting Just-In-Time (JIT) defect prediction tasks have primarily focused on the performance of individual pre-trained models, without exploring the relationship between different pre-trained models as backbones. In this study, we build six models: RoBERTaJIT, CodeBERTJIT, BARTJIT, PLBARTJIT, GPT2JIT, and CodeGPTJIT, each with a distinct pre-trained model as its backbone. We systematically explore the differences and connections between these models. Specifically, we investigate the performance of the models when using Commit code and Commit message as inputs, as well as the relationship between training efficiency and model distribution among these six models. Additionally, we conduct an ablation experiment to explore the sensitivity of each model to inputs. Furthermore, we investigate how the models perform in zero-shot and few-shot scenarios. Our findings indicate that each model based on different backbones shows improvements, and when the backbone's pre-training model is similar, the training resources that need to be consumed are much more closer. We also observe that Commit code plays a significant role in defect detection, and different pre-trained models demonstrate better defect detection ability with a balanced dataset under few-shot scenarios. These results provide new insights for optimizing JIT defect prediction tasks using pre-trained models and highlight the factors that require more attention when constructing such models. Additionally, CodeGPTJIT and GPT2JIT achieved better performance than DeepJIT and CC2Vec on the two datasets respectively under 2000 training samples. These findings emphasize the effectiveness of transformer-based pre-trained models in JIT defect prediction tasks, especially in scenarios with limited training data.


Fused Audio Instance and Representation for Respiratory Disease Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Audio-based classification techniques on body sounds have long been studied to aid in the diagnosis of respiratory diseases. While most research is centered on the use of cough as the main biomarker, other body sounds also have the potential to detect respiratory diseases. Recent studies on COVID-19 have shown that breath and speech sounds, in addition to cough, correlate with the disease. Our study proposes Fused Audio Instance and Representation (FAIR) as a method for respiratory disease detection. FAIR relies on constructing a joint feature vector from various body sounds represented in waveform and spectrogram form. We conducted experiments on the use case of COVID-19 detection by combining waveform and spectrogram representation of body sounds. Our findings show that the use of self-attention to combine extracted features from cough, breath, and speech sounds leads to the best performance with an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) score of 0.8658, a sensitivity of 0.8057, and a specificity of 0.7958. Compared to models trained solely on spectrograms or waveforms, the use of both representations results in an improved AUC score, demonstrating that combining spectrogram and waveform representation helps to enrich the extracted features and outperforms the models that use only one representation.


How to Use K-means for Big Data Clustering?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

K-means plays a vital role in data mining and is the simplest and most widely used algorithm under the Euclidean Minimum Sum-of-Squares Clustering (MSSC) model. However, its performance drastically drops when applied to vast amounts of data. Therefore, it is crucial to improve K-means by scaling it to big data using as few of the following computational resources as possible: data, time, and algorithmic ingredients. We propose a new parallel scheme of using K-means and K-means++ algorithms for big data clustering that satisfies the properties of a ``true big data'' algorithm and outperforms the classical and recent state-of-the-art MSSC approaches in terms of solution quality and runtime. The new approach naturally implements global search by decomposing the MSSC problem without using additional metaheuristics. This work shows that data decomposition is the basic approach to solve the big data clustering problem. The empirical success of the new algorithm allowed us to challenge the common belief that more data is required to obtain a good clustering solution. Moreover, the present work questions the established trend that more sophisticated hybrid approaches and algorithms are required to obtain a better clustering solution.


Forecasting Cryptocurrency Prices Using Deep Learning: Integrating Financial, Blockchain, and Text Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper explores the application of Machine Learning (ML) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques in cryptocurrency price forecasting, specifically Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Focusing on news and social media data, primarily from Twitter and Reddit, we analyse the influence of public sentiment on cryptocurrency valuations using advanced deep learning NLP methods. Alongside conventional price regression, we treat cryptocurrency price forecasting as a classification problem. This includes both the prediction of price movements (up or down) and the identification of local extrema. We compare the performance of various ML models, both with and without NLP data integration. Our findings reveal that incorporating NLP data significantly enhances the forecasting performance of our models. We discover that pre-trained models, such as Twitter-RoBERTa and BART MNLI, are highly effective in capturing market sentiment, and that fine-tuning Large Language Models (LLMs) also yields substantial forecasting improvements. Notably, the BART MNLI zero-shot classification model shows considerable proficiency in extracting bullish and bearish signals from textual data. All of our models consistently generate profit across different validation scenarios, with no observed decline in profits or reduction in the impact of NLP data over time. The study highlights the potential of text analysis in improving financial forecasts and demonstrates the effectiveness of various NLP techniques in capturing nuanced market sentiment.


Risk Bounds of Accelerated SGD for Overparameterized Linear Regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Accelerated stochastic gradient descent (ASGD) is a workhorse in deep learning and often achieves better generalization performance than SGD. However, existing optimization theory can only explain the faster convergence of ASGD, but cannot explain its better generalization. In this paper, we study the generalization of ASGD for overparameterized linear regression, which is possibly the simplest setting of learning with overparameterization. We establish an instance-dependent excess risk bound for ASGD within each eigen-subspace of the data covariance matrix. Our analysis shows that (i) ASGD outperforms SGD in the subspace of small eigenvalues, exhibiting a faster rate of exponential decay for bias error, while in the subspace of large eigenvalues, its bias error decays slower than SGD; and (ii) the variance error of ASGD is always larger than that of SGD. Our result suggests that ASGD can outperform SGD when the difference between the initialization and the true weight vector is mostly confined to the subspace of small eigenvalues. Additionally, when our analysis is specialized to linear regression in the strongly convex setting, it yields a tighter bound for bias error than the best-known result.


Gradient-based bilevel optimization for multi-penalty Ridge regression through matrix differential calculus

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Common regularization algorithms for linear regression, such as LASSO and Ridge regression, rely on a regularization hyperparameter that balances the tradeoff between minimizing the fitting error and the norm of the learned model coefficients. As this hyperparameter is scalar, it can be easily selected via random or grid search optimizing a cross-validation criterion. However, using a scalar hyperparameter limits the algorithm's flexibility and potential for better generalization. In this paper, we address the problem of linear regression with l2-regularization, where a different regularization hyperparameter is associated with each input variable. We optimize these hyperparameters using a gradient-based approach, wherein the gradient of a cross-validation criterion with respect to the regularization hyperparameters is computed analytically through matrix differential calculus. Additionally, we introduce two strategies tailored for sparse model learning problems aiming at reducing the risk of overfitting to the validation data. Numerical examples demonstrate that our multi-hyperparameter regularization approach outperforms LASSO, Ridge, and Elastic Net regression. Moreover, the analytical computation of the gradient proves to be more efficient in terms of computational time compared to automatic differentiation, especially when handling a large number of input variables. Application to the identification of over-parameterized Linear Parameter-Varying models is also presented.


Variational Annealing on Graphs for Combinatorial Optimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Several recent unsupervised learning methods use probabilistic approaches to solve combinatorial optimization (CO) problems based on the assumption of statistically independent solution variables. We demonstrate that this assumption imposes performance limitations in particular on difficult problem instances. Our results corroborate that an autoregressive approach which captures statistical dependencies among solution variables yields superior performance on many popular CO problems. We introduce subgraph tokenization in which the configuration of a set of solution variables is represented by a single token. This tokenization technique alleviates the drawback of the long sequential sampling procedure which is inherent to autoregressive methods without sacrificing expressivity. Importantly, we theoretically motivate an annealed entropy regularization and show empirically that it is essential for efficient and stable learning.


Empirical Comparison between Cross-Validation and Mutation-Validation in Model Selection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Mutation validation (MV) is a recently proposed approach for model selection, garnering significant interest due to its unique characteristics and potential benefits compared to the widely used cross-validation (CV) method. In this study, we empirically compared MV and $k$-fold CV using benchmark and real-world datasets. By employing Bayesian tests, we compared generalization estimates yielding three posterior probabilities: practical equivalence, CV superiority, and MV superiority. We also evaluated the differences in the capacity of the selected models and computational efficiency. We found that both MV and CV select models with practically equivalent generalization performance across various machine learning algorithms and the majority of benchmark datasets. MV exhibited advantages in terms of selecting simpler models and lower computational costs. However, in some cases MV selected overly simplistic models leading to underfitting and showed instability in hyperparameter selection. These limitations of MV became more evident in the evaluation of a real-world neuroscientific task of predicting sex at birth using brain functional connectivity.


Locally Optimal Descent for Dynamic Stepsize Scheduling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Stochastic gradient-based optimization methods such as SGD and Adam (Kingma & Ba, 2014) are the main workhorse behind modern machine learning. Such methods sequentially apply stochastic gradient steps to update the trained model and their performance crucially depends on the choice of a learning rate sequence, or schedule, used throughout this process to determine the magnitude of the sequential updates. All in all, effectively tuning the learning rate schedule is widely considered a tedious task requiring extensive, sometimes prohibitive, hyper-parameter search, resulting in a significant excess of engineering time and compute resources usage in ML training. A prominent approach to address this issue gave rise to a plethora of adaptive optimization methods (most notably Duchi et al., 2011 and Kingma & Ba, 2014), where the learning rate parameter is automatically tuned during the optimization process based on previously received stochastic gradients. In some important applications these methods provide superior convergence performance, while their theoretical guarantees match the state-of-the-art in the stochastic convex and (smooth) non-convex optimization settings (Li & Orabona, 2019; Ward et al., 2020; Attia & Koren, 2023). However, despite the adaptivity incorporated into these methods, auxiliary learning rate schedules are often still required to actually attain their optimal performance (e.g., Loshchilov & Hutter, 2016), and the nuisance of laborious and extensive manual tuning still remain relevant for these methods as well.


Stability and L2-penalty in Model Averaging

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Model averaging has received much attention in the past two decades, which integrates available information by averaging over potential models. Although various model averaging methods have been developed, there are few literatures on the theoretical properties of model averaging from the perspective of stability, and the majority of these methods constrain model weights to a simplex. The aim of this paper is to introduce stability from statistical learning theory into model averaging. Thus, we define the stability, asymptotic empirical risk minimizer, generalization, and consistency of model averaging and study the relationship among them. Our results indicate that stability can ensure that model averaging has good generalization performance and consistency under reasonable conditions, where consistency means model averaging estimator can asymptotically minimize the mean squared prediction error. We also propose a L2-penalty model averaging method without limiting model weights and prove that it has stability and consistency. In order to reduce the impact of tuning parameter selection, we use 10-fold cross-validation to select a candidate set of tuning parameters and perform a weighted average of the estimators of model weights based on estimation errors. The Monte Carlo simulation and an illustrative application demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method.