Most applications of machine learning to classification assume a closed set of balanced classes. This is at odds with the real world, where class occurrence statistics often follow a long-tailed power-law distribution and it is unlikely that all classes are seen in a single sample. Nonparametric Bayesian models naturally capture this phenomenon, but have significant practical barriers to widespread adoption, namely implementation complexity and computational inefficiency. To address this, we present a method for extracting the inductive bias from a nonparametric Bayesian model and transferring it to an artificial neural network. By simulating data with a nonparametric Bayesian prior, we can metalearn a sequence model that performs inference over an unlimited set of classes. After training, this "neural circuit" has distilled the corresponding inductive bias and can successfully perform sequential inference over an open set of classes. Our experimental results show that the metalearned neural circuit achieves comparable or better performance than particle filter-based methods for inference in these models while being faster and simpler to use than methods that explicitly incorporate Bayesian nonparametric inference.

We introduce a pipeline for time series classification that extracts features based on the iterated-sums signature (ISS) and then applies a linear classifier. These features are intrinsically nonlinear, capture chronological information, and, under certain settings, are invariant to time-warping. We are competitive with state-ofthe-art methods on the UCR archive, both in terms of accuracy and speed. We make our code available at https://github.com/irkri/fruits.

Mobile health (mHealth) technologies aim to improve distal outcomes, such as clinical conditions, by optimizing proximal outcomes through just-in-time adaptive interventions. Contextual bandits provide a suitable framework for customizing such interventions according to individual time-varying contexts, intending to maximize cumulative proximal outcomes. However, unique challenges such as modeling count outcomes within bandit frameworks have hindered the widespread application of contextual bandits to mHealth studies. The current work addresses this challenge by leveraging count data models into online decision-making approaches. Specifically, we combine four common offline count data models (Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial regressions) with Thompson sampling, a popular contextual bandit algorithm. The proposed algorithms are motivated by and evaluated on a real dataset from the Drink Less trial, where they are shown to improve user engagement with the mHealth system. The proposed methods are further evaluated on simulated data, achieving improvement in maximizing cumulative proximal outcomes over existing algorithms. Theoretical results on regret bounds are also derived. A user-friendly R package countts that implements the proposed methods for assessing contextual bandit algorithms is made publicly available at https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/countts.

Forecast combination integrates information from various sources by consolidating multiple forecast results from the target time series. Instead of the need to select a single optimal forecasting model, this paper introduces a deep learning ensemble forecasting model based on the Dirichlet process. Initially, the learning rate is sampled with three basis distributions as hyperparameters to convert the infinite mixture into a finite one. All checkpoints are collected to establish a deep learning sub-model pool, and weight adjustment and diversity strategies are developed during the combination process. The main advantage of this method is its ability to generate the required base learners through a single training process, utilizing the decaying strategy to tackle the challenge posed by the stochastic nature of gradient descent in determining the optimal learning rate. To ensure the method's generalizability and competitiveness, this paper conducts an empirical analysis using the weekly dataset from the M4 competition and explores sensitivity to the number of models to be combined. The results demonstrate that the ensemble model proposed offers substantial improvements in prediction accuracy and stability compared to a single benchmark model.

This paper rigorously shows how over-parameterization changes the convergence behaviors of gradient descent (GD) for the matrix sensing problem, where the goal is to recover an unknown low-rank ground-truth matrix from near-isotropic linear measurements. First, we consider the symmetric setting with the symmetric parameterization where $M^* \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times n}$ is a positive semi-definite unknown matrix of rank $r \ll n$, and one uses a symmetric parameterization $XX^\top$ to learn $M^*$. Here $X \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times k}$ with $k > r$ is the factor matrix. We give a novel $\Omega (1/T^2)$ lower bound of randomly initialized GD for the over-parameterized case ($k >r$) where $T$ is the number of iterations. This is in stark contrast to the exact-parameterization scenario ($k=r$) where the convergence rate is $\exp (-\Omega (T))$. Next, we study asymmetric setting where $M^* \in \mathbb{R}^{n_1 \times n_2}$ is the unknown matrix of rank $r \ll \min\{n_1,n_2\}$, and one uses an asymmetric parameterization $FG^\top$ to learn $M^*$ where $F \in \mathbb{R}^{n_1 \times k}$ and $G \in \mathbb{R}^{n_2 \times k}$. Building on prior work, we give a global exact convergence result of randomly initialized GD for the exact-parameterization case ($k=r$) with an $\exp (-\Omega(T))$ rate. Furthermore, we give the first global exact convergence result for the over-parameterization case ($k>r$) with an $\exp(-\Omega(\alpha^2 T))$ rate where $\alpha$ is the initialization scale. This linear convergence result in the over-parameterization case is especially significant because one can apply the asymmetric parameterization to the symmetric setting to speed up from $\Omega (1/T^2)$ to linear convergence. On the other hand, we propose a novel method that only modifies one step of GD and obtains a convergence rate independent of $\alpha$, recovering the rate in the exact-parameterization case.

Empirical studies have demonstrated that the noise in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) aligns favorably with the local geometry of loss landscape. However, theoretical and quantitative explanations for this phenomenon remain sparse. In this paper, we offer a comprehensive theoretical investigation into the aforementioned {\em noise geometry} for over-parameterized linear (OLMs) models and two-layer neural networks. We scrutinize both average and directional alignments, paying special attention to how factors like sample size and input data degeneracy affect the alignment strength. As a specific application, we leverage our noise geometry characterizations to study how SGD escapes from sharp minima, revealing that the escape direction has significant components along flat directions. This is in stark contrast to GD, which escapes only along the sharpest directions. To substantiate our theoretical findings, both synthetic and real-world experiments are provided.

Generative model-based deep clustering frameworks excel in classifying complex data, but are limited in handling dynamic and complex features because they require prior knowledge of the number of clusters. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric deep clustering framework that employs an infinite mixture of Gaussians as a prior. Our framework utilizes a memoized online variational inference method that enables the "birth" and "merge" moves of clusters, allowing our framework to cluster data in a "dynamic-adaptive" manner, without requiring prior knowledge of the number of features. We name the framework as DIVA, a Dirichlet Process-based Incremental deep clustering framework via Variational Auto-Encoder. Our framework, which outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, exhibits superior performance in classifying complex data with dynamically changing features, particularly in the case of incremental features. We released our source code implementation at: https://github.com/Ghiara/diva

Weak supervision (WS) is a powerful method to build labeled datasets for training supervised models in the face of little-to-no labeled data. It replaces hand-labeling data with aggregating multiple noisy-but-cheap label estimates expressed by labeling functions (LFs). While it has been used successfully in many domains, weak supervision's application scope is limited by the difficulty of constructing labeling functions for domains with complex or high-dimensional features. To address this, a handful of methods have proposed automating the LF design process using a small set of ground truth labels. In this work, we introduce AutoWS-Bench-101: a framework for evaluating automated WS (AutoWS) techniques in challenging WS settings -- a set of diverse application domains on which it has been previously difficult or impossible to apply traditional WS techniques. While AutoWS is a promising direction toward expanding the application-scope of WS, the emergence of powerful methods such as zero-shot foundation models reveals the need to understand how AutoWS techniques compare or cooperate with modern zero-shot or few-shot learners. This informs the central question of AutoWS-Bench-101: given an initial set of 100 labels for each task, we ask whether a practitioner should use an AutoWS method to generate additional labels or use some simpler baseline, such as zero-shot predictions from a foundation model or supervised learning. We observe that in many settings, it is necessary for AutoWS methods to incorporate signal from foundation models if they are to outperform simple few-shot baselines, and AutoWS-Bench-101 promotes future research in this direction. We conclude with a thorough ablation study of AutoWS methods.

Missing values are unavoidable in many applications of machine learning and present challenges both during training and at test time. When variables are missing in recurring patterns, fitting separate pattern submodels have been proposed as a solution. However, fitting models independently does not make efficient use of all available data. Conversely, fitting a single shared model to the full data set relies on imputation which often leads to biased results when missingness depends on unobserved factors. We propose an alternative approach, called sharing pattern submodels, which i) makes predictions that are robust to missing values at test time, ii) maintains or improves the predictive power of pattern submodels, and iii) has a short description, enabling improved interpretability. Parameter sharing is enforced through sparsity-inducing regularization which we prove leads to consistent estimation. Finally, we give conditions for when a sharing model is optimal, even when both missingness and the target outcome depend on unobserved variables. Classification and regression experiments on synthetic and real-world data sets demonstrate that our models achieve a favorable tradeoff between pattern specialization and information sharing.

This study aims to comprehensively investigate the deep ensemble approach, an approximate Bayesian inference, in the multi-output regression task for predicting the aerodynamic performance of a missile configuration. To this end, the effect of the number of neural networks used in the ensemble, which has been blindly adopted in previous studies, is scrutinized. As a result, an obvious trend towards underestimation of uncertainty as it increases is observed for the first time, and in this context, we propose the deep ensemble framework that applies the post-hoc calibration method to improve its uncertainty quantification performance. It is compared with Gaussian process regression and is shown to have superior performance in terms of regression accuracy ($\uparrow55\sim56\%$), reliability of estimated uncertainty ($\uparrow38\sim77\%$), and training efficiency ($\uparrow78\%$). Finally, the potential impact of the suggested framework on the Bayesian optimization is briefly examined, indicating that deep ensemble without calibration may lead to unintended exploratory behavior. This UQ framework can be seamlessly applied and extended to any regression task, as no special assumptions have been made for the specific problem used in this study.