Statistical Learning
Car-Following Models: A Multidisciplinary Review
Zhang, Tianya, Jin, Peter J., Bayen, Alexandre, D., Ph., Piccoli, Benedetto
Car-following (CF) algorithms are crucial components of traffic simulations and have been integrated into many production vehicles equipped with Advanced Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS). Insights from the model of car-following behavior help us understand the causes of various macro phenomena that arise from interactions between pairs of vehicles. Car-following models encompass multiple disciplines, including traffic engineering, physics, dynamic system control, cognitive science, machine learning, and reinforcement learning. This paper presents an extensive survey that highlights the differences, complementarities, and overlaps among microscopic traffic flow and control models based on their underlying principles and design logic. It reviews representative algorithms, ranging from theory-based kinematic models, Psycho-Physical Models, and Adaptive cruise control models to data-driven algorithms like Reinforcement Learning and Imitation Learning (IL). The manuscript discusses the strengths and limitations of these models and explores their applications in different contexts. This review synthesizes existing researches across different domains to fill knowledge gaps and offer guidance for future research by identifying the latest trends in car following models and their applications.
On the Effectiveness of Log Representation for Log-based Anomaly Detection
Wu, Xingfang, Li, Heng, Khomh, Foutse
Logs are an essential source of information for people to understand the running status of a software system. Due to the evolving modern software architecture and maintenance methods, more research efforts have been devoted to automated log analysis. In particular, machine learning (ML) has been widely used in log analysis tasks. In ML-based log analysis tasks, converting textual log data into numerical feature vectors is a critical and indispensable step. However, the impact of using different log representation techniques on the performance of the downstream models is not clear, which limits researchers and practitioners' opportunities of choosing the optimal log representation techniques in their automated log analysis workflows. Therefore, this work investigates and compares the commonly adopted log representation techniques from previous log analysis research. Particularly, we select six log representation techniques and evaluate them with seven ML models and four public log datasets (i.e., HDFS, BGL, Spirit and Thunderbird) in the context of log-based anomaly detection. We also examine the impacts of the log parsing process and the different feature aggregation approaches when they are employed with log representation techniques. From the experiments, we provide some heuristic guidelines for future researchers and developers to follow when designing an automated log analysis workflow. We believe our comprehensive comparison of log representation techniques can help researchers and practitioners better understand the characteristics of different log representation techniques and provide them with guidance for selecting the most suitable ones for their ML-based log analysis workflow.
Exploring Artificial Intelligence Methods for Energy Prediction in Healthcare Facilities: An In-Depth Extended Systematic Review
FatehiJananloo, Marjan, Stopps, Helen, McArthur, J. J.
Hospitals, due to their complexity and unique requirements, play a pivotal role in global energy consumption patterns. This study conducted a comprehensive literature review, utilizing the PRISMA framework, of articles that employed machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques for predicting energy consumption in hospital buildings. Of the 1884 publications identified, 17 were found to address this specific domain and have been thoroughly reviewed to establish the state-of-the-art and identify gaps where future research is needed. This review revealed a diverse range of data inputs influencing energy prediction, with occupancy and meteorological data emerging as significant predictors. However, many studies failed to delve deep into the implications of their data choices, and gaps were evident regarding the understanding of time dynamics, operational status, and preprocessing methods. Machine learning, especially deep learning models like ANNs, have shown potential in this domain, yet they come with challenges, including interpretability and computational demands. The findings underscore the immense potential of AI in optimizing hospital energy consumption but also highlight the need for more comprehensive and granular research. Key areas for future research include the optimization of ANN approaches, new optimization and data integration techniques, the integration of real-time data into Intelligent Energy Management Systems, and increasing focus on long-term energy forecasting.
Symphony: Symmetry-Equivariant Point-Centered Spherical Harmonics for Molecule Generation
Daigavane, Ameya, Kim, Song, Geiger, Mario, Smidt, Tess
We present Symphony, an $E(3)$-equivariant autoregressive generative model for 3D molecular geometries that iteratively builds a molecule from molecular fragments. Existing autoregressive models such as G-SchNet and G-SphereNet for molecules utilize rotationally invariant features to respect the 3D symmetries of molecules. In contrast, Symphony uses message-passing with higher-degree $E(3)$-equivariant features. This allows a novel representation of probability distributions via spherical harmonic signals to efficiently model the 3D geometry of molecules. We show that Symphony is able to accurately generate small molecules from the QM9 dataset, outperforming existing autoregressive models and approaching the performance of diffusion models.
The geometry of flow: Advancing predictions of river geometry with multi-model machine learning
Chang, Shuyu Y, Ghahremani, Zahra, Manuel, Laura, Erfani, Mohammad, Shen, Chaopeng, Cohen, Sagy, Van Meter, Kimberly, Pierce, Jennifer L, Meselhe, Ehab A, Goharian, Erfan
Hydraulic geometry parameters describing river hydrogeomorphic is important for flood forecasting. Although well-established, power-law hydraulic geometry curves have been widely used to understand riverine systems and mapping flooding inundation worldwide for the past 70 years, we have become increasingly aware of the limitations of these approaches. In the present study, we have moved beyond these traditional power-law relationships for river geometry, testing the ability of machine-learning models to provide improved predictions of river width and depth. For this work, we have used an unprecedentedly large river measurement dataset (HYDRoSWOT) as well as a suite of watershed predictor data to develop novel data-driven approaches to better estimate river geometries over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Our Random Forest, XGBoost, and neural network models out-performed the traditional, regionalized power law-based hydraulic geometry equations for both width and depth, providing R-squared values of as high as 0.75 for width and as high as 0.67 for depth, compared with R-squared values of 0.57 for width and 0.18 for depth from the regional hydraulic geometry equations. Our results also show diverse performance outcomes across stream orders and geographical regions for the different machine-learning models, demonstrating the value of using multi-model approaches to maximize the predictability of river geometry. The developed models have been used to create the newly publicly available STREAM-geo dataset, which provides river width, depth, width/depth ratio, and river and stream surface area (%RSSA) for nearly 2.7 million NHDPlus stream reaches across the rivers and streams across the contiguous US.
Learning Multi-Frequency Partial Correlation Graphs
D'Acunto, Gabriele, Di Lorenzo, Paolo, Bonchi, Francesco, Sardellitti, Stefania, Barbarossa, Sergio
Despite the large research effort devoted to learning dependencies between time series, the state of the art still faces a major limitation: existing methods learn partial correlations but fail to discriminate across distinct frequency bands. Motivated by many applications in which this differentiation is pivotal, we overcome this limitation by learning a block-sparse, frequency-dependent, partial correlation graph, in which layers correspond to different frequency bands, and partial correlations can occur over just a few layers. To this aim, we formulate and solve two nonconvex learning problems: the first has a closed-form solution and is suitable when there is prior knowledge about the number of partial correlations; the second hinges on an iterative solution based on successive convex approximation, and is effective for the general case where no prior knowledge is available. Numerical results on synthetic data show that the proposed methods outperform the current state of the art. Finally, the analysis of financial time series confirms that partial correlations exist only within a few frequency bands, underscoring how our methods enable the gaining of valuable insights that would be undetected without discriminating along the frequency domain.
A Survey of Learning Criteria Going Beyond the Usual Risk
Holland, Matthew J. (a:1:{s:5:"en_US";s:16:"Osaka University";}) | Tanabe, Kazuki
Virtually all machine learning tasks are characterized using some form of loss function, and "good performance" is typically stated in terms of a sufficiently small average loss, taken over the random draw of test data. While optimizing for performance on average is intuitive, convenient to analyze in theory, and easy to implement in practice, such a choice brings about trade-offs. In this work, we survey and introduce a wide variety of non-traditional criteria used to design and evaluate machine learning algorithms, place the classical paradigm within the proper historical context, and propose a view of learning problems which emphasizes the question of "what makes for a desirable loss distribution?" in place of tacit use of the expected loss.
Graphmax for Text Generation
Liu, Bin (a:1:{s:5:"en_US";s:48:"Southwestern University of Finance and Economics";}) | Yin, Guosheng
In text generation, a large language model (LM) makes a choice of each new word based only on the former selection of its context using the softmax function. Nevertheless, the link statistics information of concurrent words based on a scene-specific corpus is valuable in choosing the next word, which can help to ensure the topic of the generated text to be aligned with the current task. To fully explore the co-occurrence information, we propose a graphmax function for task-specific text generation. Using the graph-based regularization, graphmax enables the final word choice to be determined by both the global knowledge from the LM and the local knowledge from the scene-specific corpus. The traditional softmax function is regularized with a graph total variation (GTV) term, which incorporates the local knowledge into the LM and encourages the model to consider the statistical relationships between words in a scene-specific corpus. The proposed graphmax is versatile and can be readily plugged into any large pre-trained LM for text generation and machine translation. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that the new GTV-based regularization can improve performances in various natural language processing (NLP) tasks in comparison with existing methods. Moreover, through human experiments, we observe that participants can easily distinguish the text generated by graphmax or softmax.
A Survey on Vulnerability of Federated Learning: A Learning Algorithm Perspective
Xie, Xianghua, Hu, Chen, Ren, Hanchi, Deng, Jingjing
This review paper takes a comprehensive look at malicious attacks against FL, categorizing them from new perspectives on attack origins and targets, and providing insights into their methodology and impact. In this survey, we focus on threat models targeting the learning process of FL systems. Based on the source and target of the attack, we categorize existing threat models into four types, Data to Model (D2M), Model to Data (M2D), Model to Model (M2M) and composite attacks. For each attack type, we discuss the defense strategies proposed, highlighting their effectiveness, assumptions and potential areas for improvement. Defense strategies have evolved from using a singular metric to excluding malicious clients, to employing a multifaceted approach examining client models at various phases. In this survey paper, our research indicates that the to-learn data, the learning gradients, and the learned model at different stages all can be manipulated to initiate malicious attacks that range from undermining model performance, reconstructing private local data, and to inserting backdoors. We have also seen these threat are becoming more insidious. While earlier studies typically amplified malicious gradients, recent endeavors subtly alter the least significant weights in local models to bypass defense measures. This literature review provides a holistic understanding of the current FL threat landscape and highlights the importance of developing robust, efficient, and privacy-preserving defenses to ensure the safe and trusted adoption of FL in real-world applications.
Riemannian Prediction of Anatomical Diagnoses in Congenital Heart Disease based on 12-lead ECGs
Alkan, Muhammet, Veldtman, Gruschen, Deligianni, Fani
Congenital heart disease (CHD) is a relatively rare disease that affects patients at birth and results in extremely heterogeneous anatomical and functional defects. 12-lead ECG signal is routinely collected in CHD patients because it provides significant biomarkers for disease prognosis. However, developing accurate machine learning models is challenging due to the lack of large available datasets. Here, we suggest exploiting the Riemannian geometry of the spatial covariance structure of the ECG signal to improve classification. Firstly, we use covariance augmentation to mix samples across the Riemannian geodesic between corresponding classes. Secondly, we suggest to project the covariance matrices to their respective class Riemannian mean to enhance the quality of feature extraction via tangent space projection. We perform several ablation experiments and demonstrate significant improvement compared to traditional machine learning models and deep learning on ECG time series data.