The prediction accuracy of machine learning methods is steadily increasing, but the calibration of their uncertainty predictions poses a significant challenge. Numerous works focus on obtaining well-calibrated predictive models, but less is known about reliably assessing model calibration. This limits our ability to know when algorithms for improving calibration have a real effect, and when their improvements are merely artifacts due to random noise in finite datasets. In this work, we consider detecting mis-calibration of predictive models using a finite validation dataset as a hypothesis testing problem. The null hypothesis is that the predictive model is calibrated, while the alternative hypothesis is that the deviation from calibration is sufficiently large. We find that detecting mis-calibration is only possible when the conditional probabilities of the classes are sufficiently smooth functions of the predictions. When the conditional class probabilities are H\"older continuous, we propose T-Cal, a minimax optimal test for calibration based on a debiased plug-in estimator of the $\ell_2$-Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We further propose Adaptive T-Cal, a version that is adaptive to unknown smoothness. We verify our theoretical findings with a broad range of experiments, including with several popular deep neural net architectures and several standard post-hoc calibration methods. T-Cal is a practical general-purpose tool, which -- combined with classical tests for discrete-valued predictors -- can be used to test the calibration of virtually any probabilistic classification method.

This paper proposes a new Bayesian machine learning model that can be applied to large datasets arising in macroeconomics. Our framework sums over many simple two-component location mixtures. The transition between components is determined by a logistic function that depends on a single threshold variable and two hyperparameters. Each of these individual models only accounts for a minor portion of the variation in the endogenous variables. But many of them are capable of capturing arbitrary nonlinear conditional mean relations. Conjugate priors enable fast and efficient inference. In simulations, we show that our approach produces accurate point and density forecasts. In a real-data exercise, we forecast US macroeconomic aggregates and consider the nonlinear effects of financial shocks in a large-scale nonlinear VAR.

Generalized class discovery (GCD) aims to infer known and unknown categories in an unlabeled dataset leveraging prior knowledge of a labeled set comprising known classes. Existing research implicitly/explicitly assumes that the frequency of occurrence for each category, whether known or unknown, is approximately the same in the unlabeled data. However, in nature, we are more likely to encounter known/common classes than unknown/uncommon ones, according to the long-tailed property of visual classes. Therefore, we present a challenging and practical problem, Imbalanced Generalized Category Discovery (ImbaGCD), where the distribution of unlabeled data is imbalanced, with known classes being more frequent than unknown ones. To address these issues, we propose ImbaGCD, A novel optimal transport-based expectation maximization framework that accomplishes generalized category discovery by aligning the marginal class prior distribution. ImbaGCD also incorporates a systematic mechanism for estimating the imbalanced class prior distribution under the GCD setup. Our comprehensive experiments reveal that ImbaGCD surpasses previous state-of-the-art GCD methods by achieving an improvement of approximately 2 - 4% on CIFAR-100 and 15 - 19% on ImageNet-100, indicating its superior effectiveness in solving the Imbalanced GCD problem.

As Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies continue to gain traction in the modern-day world, they ultimately pose an immediate threat to current cybersecurity systems via exploitative methods. Prompt engineering is a relatively new field that explores various prompt designs that can hijack large language models (LLMs). If used by an unethical attacker, it can enable an AI system to offer malicious insights and code to them. In this paper, an enhanced intrusion detection system (IDS) that utilizes machine learning (ML) and hyperparameter tuning is explored, which can improve a model's performance in terms of accuracy and efficacy. Ultimately, this improved system can be used to combat the attacks made by unethical hackers. A standard IDS is solely configured with pre-configured rules and patterns; however, with the utilization of machine learning, implicit and different patterns can be generated through the models' hyperparameter settings and parameters. In addition, the IDS will be equipped with multiple datasets so that the accuracy of the models improves. We evaluate the performance of multiple ML models and their respective hyperparameter settings through various metrics to compare their results to other models and past research work. The results of the proposed multi-dataset integration method yielded an accuracy score of 99.9% when equipped with the XGBoost and random forest classifiers and RandomizedSearchCV hyperparameter technique.

Federated learning has created a decentralized method to train a machine learning model without needing direct access to client data. The main goal of a federated learning architecture is to protect the privacy of each client while still contributing to the training of the global model. However, the main advantage of privacy in federated learning is also the easiest aspect to exploit. Without being able to see the clients' data, it is difficult to determine the quality of the data. By utilizing data poisoning methods, such as backdoor or label-flipping attacks, or by sending manipulated information about their data back to the server, malicious clients are able to corrupt the global model and degrade performance across all clients within a federation. Our novel aggregation method, FedBayes, mitigates the effect of a malicious client by calculating the probabilities of a client's model weights given to the prior model's weights using Bayesian statistics. Our results show that this approach negates the effects of malicious clients and protects the overall federation.

In order to study the formation mechanism of residents' low-carbon awareness and provide an important basis for traffic managers to guide urban residents to choose low-carbon travel mode, this paper proposes a low-carbon energy-saving travel data feature analysis and mining based on machine learning algorithm. This paper uses data mining technology to analyze the data of low-carbon travel questionnaire, and regards the 15-dimensional problem under the framework of planned behavior theory as the internal cause variable that characterizes residents' low-carbon travel willingness. The author uses K-means clustering algorithm to classify the intensity of residents' low-carbon travel willingness, and applies the results as the explanatory variables to the random forest model to explore the mechanism of residents' social attribute characteristics, travel characteristics, etc. on their low-carbon travel willingness. The experimental results show that based on the Silhouette index test and t-SNE dimensionality reduction, residents' low-carbon travel willingness can be divided into three categories: strong, neutral, and not strong; Based on the importance index, the four most significant factors are the occupation, residence, family composition and commuting time of residents. Conclusion: This method provides policy recommendations for the development and management of urban traffic low-carbon from multiple perspectives.

Open-world 3D part segmentation is pivotal in diverse applications such as robotics and AR/VR. Traditional supervised methods often grapple with limited 3D data availability and struggle to generalize to unseen object categories. PartSLIP, a recent advancement, has made significant strides in zero- and few-shot 3D part segmentation. This is achieved by harnessing the capabilities of the 2D open-vocabulary detection module, GLIP, and introducing a heuristic method for converting and lifting multi-view 2D bounding box predictions into 3D segmentation masks. In this paper, we introduce PartSLIP++, an enhanced version designed to overcome the limitations of its predecessor. Our approach incorporates two major improvements. First, we utilize a pre-trained 2D segmentation model, SAM, to produce pixel-wise 2D segmentations, yielding more precise and accurate annotations than the 2D bounding boxes used in PartSLIP. Second, PartSLIP++ replaces the heuristic 3D conversion process with an innovative modified Expectation-Maximization algorithm. This algorithm conceptualizes 3D instance segmentation as unobserved latent variables, and then iteratively refines them through an alternating process of 2D-3D matching and optimization with gradient descent. Through extensive evaluations, we show that PartSLIP++ demonstrates better performance over PartSLIP in both low-shot 3D semantic and instance-based object part segmentation tasks. Code released at https://github.com/zyc00/PartSLIP2.

As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to rapidly evolve, the realm of Earth and atmospheric sciences is increasingly adopting data-driven models, powered by progressive developments in deep learning (DL). Specifically, DL techniques are extensively utilized to decode the chaotic and nonlinear aspects of Earth systems, and to address climate challenges via understanding weather and climate data. Cutting-edge performance on specific tasks within narrower spatio-temporal scales has been achieved recently through DL. The rise of large models, specifically large language models (LLMs), has enabled fine-tuning processes that yield remarkable outcomes across various downstream tasks, thereby propelling the advancement of general AI. However, we are still navigating the initial stages of crafting general AI for weather and climate. In this survey, we offer an exhaustive, timely overview of state-of-the-art AI methodologies specifically engineered for weather and climate data, with a special focus on time series and text data. Our primary coverage encompasses four critical aspects: types of weather and climate data, principal model architectures, model scopes and applications, and datasets for weather and climate. Furthermore, in relation to the creation and application of foundation models for weather and climate data understanding, we delve into the field's prevailing challenges, offer crucial insights, and propose detailed avenues for future research. This comprehensive approach equips practitioners with the requisite knowledge to make substantial progress in this domain. Our survey encapsulates the most recent breakthroughs in research on large, data-driven models for weather and climate data understanding, emphasizing robust foundations, current advancements, practical applications, crucial resources, and prospective research opportunities.

Deep learning based methods for medical images can be easily compromised by adversarial examples (AEs), posing a great security flaw in clinical decision-making. It has been discovered that conventional adversarial attacks like PGD which optimize the classification logits, are easy to distinguish in the feature space, resulting in accurate reactive defenses. To better understand this phenomenon and reassess the reliability of the reactive defenses for medical AEs, we thoroughly investigate the characteristic of conventional medical AEs. Specifically, we first theoretically prove that conventional adversarial attacks change the outputs by continuously optimizing vulnerable features in a fixed direction, thereby leading to outlier representations in the feature space. Then, a stress test is conducted to reveal the vulnerability of medical images, by comparing with natural images. Interestingly, this vulnerability is a double-edged sword, which can be exploited to hide AEs. We then propose a simple-yet-effective hierarchical feature constraint (HFC), a novel add-on to conventional white-box attacks, which assists to hide the adversarial feature in the target feature distribution. The proposed method is evaluated on three medical datasets, both 2D and 3D, with different modalities. The experimental results demonstrate the superiority of HFC, \emph{i.e.,} it bypasses an array of state-of-the-art adversarial medical AE detectors more efficiently than competing adaptive attacks, which reveals the deficiencies of medical reactive defense and allows to develop more robust defenses in future.

This paper studies the fundamental learning problem of the energy-based model (EBM). Learning the EBM can be achieved using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), which typically involves the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, such as the Langevin dynamics. However, the noise-initialized Langevin dynamics can be challenging in practice and hard to mix. This motivates the exploration of joint training with the generator model where the generator model serves as a complementary model to bypass MCMC sampling. However, such a method can be less accurate than the MCMC and result in biased EBM learning. While the generator can also serve as an initializer model for better MCMC sampling, its learning can be biased since it only matches the EBM and has no access to empirical training examples. Such biased generator learning may limit the potential of learning the EBM. To address this issue, we present a joint learning framework that interweaves the maximum likelihood learning algorithm for both the EBM and the complementary generator model. In particular, the generator model is learned by MLE to match both the EBM and the empirical data distribution, making it a more informative initializer for MCMC sampling of EBM. Learning generator with observed examples typically requires inference of the generator posterior. To ensure accurate and efficient inference, we adopt the MCMC posterior sampling and introduce a complementary inference model to initialize such latent MCMC sampling. We show that three separate models can be seamlessly integrated into our joint framework through two (dual-) MCMC teaching, enabling effective and efficient EBM learning.