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 Statistical Learning


Modeling non-linear Effects with Neural Networks in Relational Event Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Dynamic networks offer an insight of how relational systems evolve. However, modeling these networks efficiently remains a challenge, primarily due to computational constraints, especially as the number of observed events grows. This paper addresses this issue by introducing the Deep Relational Event Additive Model (DREAM) as a solution to the computational challenges presented by modeling non-linear effects in Relational Event Models (REMs). DREAM relies on Neural Additive Models to model non-linear effects, allowing each effect to be captured by an independent neural network. By strategically trading computational complexity for improved memory management and leveraging the computational capabilities of Graphic Processor Units (GPUs), DREAM efficiently captures complex non-linear relationships within data. This approach demonstrates the capability of DREAM in modeling dynamic networks and scaling to larger networks. Comparisons with traditional REM approaches showcase DREAM superior computational efficiency. The model potential is further demonstrated by an examination of the patent citation network, which contains nearly 8 million nodes and 100 million events.


Extension of the Dip-test Repertoire -- Efficient and Differentiable p-value Calculation for Clustering

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Over the last decade, the Dip-test of unimodality has gained increasing interest in the data mining community as it is a parameter-free statistical test that reliably rates the modality in one-dimensional samples. It returns a so called Dip-value and a corresponding probability for the sample's unimodality (Dip-p-value). These two values share a sigmoidal relationship. However, the specific transformation is dependent on the sample size. Many Dip-based clustering algorithms use bootstrapped look-up tables translating Dip- to Dip-p-values for a certain limited amount of sample sizes. We propose a specifically designed sigmoid function as a substitute for these state-of-the-art look-up tables. This accelerates computation and provides an approximation of the Dip- to Dip-p-value transformation for every single sample size. Further, it is differentiable and can therefore easily be integrated in learning schemes using gradient descent. We showcase this by exploiting our function in a novel subspace clustering algorithm called Dip'n'Sub. We highlight in extensive experiments the various benefits of our proposal.


Leveraging the Urysohn Lemma of Topology for an Enhanced Binary Classifier

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this article we offer a comprehensive analysis of the Urysohn's classifier in a binary classification context. It utilizes Urysohn's Lemma of Topology to construct separating functions, providing rigorous and adaptable solutions. Numerical experiments demonstrated exceptional performance, with scores ranging from 95% to 100%. Notably, the Urysohn's classifier outperformed CatBoost and KNN in various scenarios. Despite sensitivity to the p-metric parameter, it proved robust and adaptable. The Urysohn's classifier's mathematical rigor and adaptability make it promising for binary classification, with applications in medical diagnosis, fraud detection and cyber security. Future research includes parameter optimization and combining the Urysohn's classifier with other techniques. It offers an elegant and principled approach to classification, ensuring integrity and valuable data insights.


Big Learning Expectation Maximization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Mixture models serve as one fundamental tool with versatile applications. However, their training techniques, like the popular Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm, are notoriously sensitive to parameter initialization and often suffer from bad local optima that could be arbitrarily worse than the optimal. To address the long-lasting bad-local-optima challenge, we draw inspiration from the recent ground-breaking foundation models and propose to leverage their underlying big learning principle to upgrade the EM. Specifically, we present the Big Learning EM (BigLearn-EM), an EM upgrade that simultaneously performs joint, marginal, and orthogonally transformed marginal matchings between data and model distributions. Through simulated experiments, we empirically show that the BigLearn-EM is capable of delivering the optimal with high probability; comparisons on benchmark clustering datasets further demonstrate its effectiveness and advantages over existing techniques. The code is available at https://github.com/YulaiCong/Big-Learning-Expectation-Maximization.


Double Machine Learning for Static Panel Models with Fixed Effects

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are powerful data-driven tools for approximating highdimensional or non-linear nuisance functions which are useful in practice because the true functional form of the predictors is ex-ante unknown. In this paper, we develop estimators of policy interventions from panel data which allow for non-linear effects of the confounding regressors, and investigate the performance of these estimators using three well-known ML algorithms, specifically, LASSO, classification and regression trees, and random forests. We use Double Machine Learning (DML) (Chernozhukov et al., 2018) for the estimation of causal effects of homogeneous treatments with unobserved individual heterogeneity (fixed effects) and no unobserved confounding by extending Robinson (1988)'s partially linear regression model. We develop three alternative approaches for handling unobserved individual heterogeneity based on extending the within-group estimator, first-difference estimator, and correlated random effect estimator (Mundlak, 1978) for non-linear models. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we find that conventional least squares estimators can perform well even if the data generating process is nonlinear, but there are substantial performance gains in terms of bias reduction under a process where the true effect of the regressors is non-linear and discontinuous. However, for the same scenarios, we also find - despite extensive hyperparameter tuning - inference to be problematic for both tree-based learners because these lead to highly non-normal estimator distributions and the estimator variance being severely under-estimated. This contradicts the performance of trees in other circumstances and requires further investigation. Finally, we provide an illustrative example of DML for observational panel data showing the impact of the introduction of the national minimum wage in the UK.


Geometry-Aware Normalizing Wasserstein Flows for Optimal Causal Inference

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This manuscript enriches the framework of continuous normalizing flows (CNFs) within causal inference, primarily to augment the geometric properties of parametric submodels used in targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE). By introducing an innovative application of CNFs, we construct a refined series of parametric submodels that enable a directed interpolation between the prior distribution $p_0$ and the empirical distribution $p_1$. This proposed methodology serves to optimize the semiparametric efficiency bound in causal inference by orchestrating CNFs to align with Wasserstein gradient flows. Our approach not only endeavors to minimize the mean squared error in the estimation but also imbues the estimators with geometric sophistication, thereby enhancing robustness against misspecification. This robustness is crucial, as it alleviates the dependence on the standard $n^{\frac{1}{4}}$ rate for a doubly-robust perturbation direction in TMLE. By incorporating robust optimization principles and differential geometry into the estimators, the developed geometry-aware CNFs represent a significant advancement in the pursuit of doubly robust causal inference.


LAVA: Data Valuation without Pre-Specified Learning Algorithms

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Traditionally, data valuation (DV) is posed as a problem of equitably splitting the validation performance of a learning algorithm among the training data. As a result, the calculated data values depend on many design choices of the underlying learning algorithm. However, this dependence is undesirable for many DV use cases, such as setting priorities over different data sources in a data acquisition process and informing pricing mechanisms in a data marketplace. In these scenarios, data needs to be valued before the actual analysis and the choice of the learning algorithm is still undetermined then. Another side-effect of the dependence is that to assess the value of individual points, one needs to re-run the learning algorithm with and without a point, which incurs a large computation burden. This work leapfrogs over the current limits of data valuation methods by introducing a new framework that can value training data in a way that is oblivious to the downstream learning algorithm. Our main results are as follows. (1) We develop a proxy for the validation performance associated with a training set based on a non-conventional class-wise Wasserstein distance between training and validation sets. We show that the distance characterizes the upper bound of the validation performance for any given model under certain Lipschitz conditions. (2) We develop a novel method to value individual data based on the sensitivity analysis of the class-wise Wasserstein distance. Importantly, these values can be directly obtained for free from the output of off-the-shelf optimization solvers when computing the distance. (3) We evaluate our new data valuation framework over various use cases related to detecting low-quality data and show that, surprisingly, the learning-agnostic feature of our framework enables a significant improvement over SOTA performance while being orders of magnitude faster.


On the Efficacy of Differentially Private Few-shot Image Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

There has been significant recent progress in training differentially private (DP) models which achieve accuracy that approaches the best non-private models. These DP models are typically pretrained on large public datasets and then fine-tuned on private downstream datasets that are relatively large and similar in distribution to the pretraining data. However, in many applications including personalization and federated learning, it is crucial to perform well (i) in the few-shot setting, as obtaining large amounts of labeled data may be problematic; and (ii) on datasets from a wide variety of domains for use in various specialist settings. To understand under which conditions few-shot DP can be effective, we perform an exhaustive set of experiments that reveals how the accuracy and vulnerability to attack of few-shot DP image classification models are affected as the number of shots per class, privacy level, model architecture, downstream dataset, and subset of learnable parameters in the model vary. We show that to achieve DP accuracy on par with non-private models, the shots per class must be increased as the privacy level increases. We also show that learning parameter-efficient FiLM adapters under DP is competitive with learning just the final classifier layer or learning all of the network parameters. Finally, we evaluate DP federated learning systems and establish state-of-the-art performance on the challenging FLAIR benchmark.


Efficient Conditionally Invariant Representation Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce the Conditional Independence Regression CovariancE (CIRCE), a measure of conditional independence for multivariate continuous-valued variables. CIRCE applies as a regularizer in settings where we wish to learn neural features $\varphi(X)$ of data $X$ to estimate a target $Y$, while being conditionally independent of a distractor $Z$ given $Y$. Both $Z$ and $Y$ are assumed to be continuous-valued but relatively low dimensional, whereas $X$ and its features may be complex and high dimensional. Relevant settings include domain-invariant learning, fairness, and causal learning. The procedure requires just a single ridge regression from $Y$ to kernelized features of $Z$, which can be done in advance. It is then only necessary to enforce independence of $\varphi(X)$ from residuals of this regression, which is possible with attractive estimation properties and consistency guarantees. By contrast, earlier measures of conditional feature dependence require multiple regressions for each step of feature learning, resulting in more severe bias and variance, and greater computational cost. When sufficiently rich features are used, we establish that CIRCE is zero if and only if $\varphi(X) \perp \!\!\! \perp Z \mid Y$. In experiments, we show superior performance to previous methods on challenging benchmarks, including learning conditionally invariant image features.


Livestock feeding behavior: A tutorial review on automated techniques for ruminant monitoring

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Livestock feeding behavior is an influential research area for those involved in animal husbandry and agriculture. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in automated systems for monitoring the behavior of ruminants. Despite the developments accomplished in the last decade, there is still much to do and learn about the methods for measuring and analyzing livestock feeding behavior. Automated monitoring systems mainly use motion, acoustic, and image sensors to collect animal behavioral data. The performance evaluation of existing methods is a complex task and direct comparisons between studies are difficult. Several factors prevent a direct comparison, starting from the diversity of data and performance metrics used in the experiments. To the best of our knowledge, this work represents the first tutorial-style review on the analysis of the feeding behavior of ruminants, emphasizing the relationship between sensing methodologies, signal processing and computational intelligence methods. It assesses the main sensing methodologies (i.e. based on movement, sound, images/videos and pressure) and the main techniques to measure and analyze the signals associated with feeding behavior, evaluating their use in different settings and situations. It also highlights the potentiality of automated monitoring systems to provide valuable information that improves our understanding of livestock feeding behavior. The relevance of these systems is increasingly important due to their impact on production systems and research. Finally, the paper closes by discussing future challenges and opportunities in livestock feeding behavior monitoring.