We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

Many real-world graphs exhibit diverse and complex topological structures that are not well captured by geometric manifolds with uniform global curvature, such as hyperbolic or spherical spaces. Recently, there has been growing interest in embedding graphs into pseudo-Riemannian manifolds, which generalize both hyperbolic and spherical geometries. However, existing approaches face three significant limitations, including the ineffective pseudo-Riemannain framework, the shallow architectures, and the absence of clear guideline for selecting suitable pseudo-Riemannian manifolds. To address these issues, we introduce a novel diffeomorphic framework for graph embedding that aligns with the nature of pseudo-Riemannian manifolds. Subsequently, we propose the pseudo-Riemannian Graph Transformer for learning representations of complex graph structures. Our diffeomorphic framework in pseudo-Riemannian geometry enables the principled definitions of core transformer components, including linear attention, residual connection, and layer normalization. Finally, we develop a lightweight space searching algorithm to automatically identify the most suitable pseudo-Riemannian manifold for an input graph. Extensive experiments on diverse real-world graphs demonstrate that our model consistently outperforms other baselines in both node classification and link prediction tasks.

Since the seminal work of TabPFN [16], research on tabular foundation models (TFMs) based on in-context learning (ICL) has challenged long-standing paradigms in machine learning. Without seeing any real-world data, models pretrained on purely synthetic datasets generalize remarkably well across diverse datasets, often using only a moderate number of in-context examples. This shifts the focus in tabular machine learning from model architecture design to the design of synthetic datasets, or, more precisely, to the prior distributions that generate them. Yet the guiding principles for prior design remain poorly understood. This work marks the first attempt to address the gap. We systematically investigate and identify key properties of synthetic priors that allow pretrained TFMs to generalize well. Based on these insights, we introduce MITRA 1, a TFM trained on a curated mixture of synthetic priors selected for their diversity, distinctiveness, and performance on real-world tabular data. MITRA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art TFMs, such as TabPFNv2 [17] and TabICL [29], across both classification and regression benchmarks, with better sample efficiency.

Biological and artificial learners are inherently exposed to a stream of data and experience throughout their lifetimes and must constantly adapt to, learn from, or selectively ignore the ongoing input. Recent findings reveal that, even when the performance remains stable, the underlying neural representations can change gradually over time, a phenomenon known as representational drift. Studying the different sources of data and noise that may contribute to drift is essential for understanding lifelong learning in neural systems. However, a systematic study of drift across architectures and learning rules, and the connection to task, are missing. Here, in an online learning setup, we characterize drift as a function of data distribution, and specifically show that the learning noise induced by taskirrelevant stimuli, which the agent learns to ignore in a given context, can create long-term drift in the representation of task-relevant stimuli. Using theory and simulations, we demonstrate this phenomenon both in Hebbian-based learning-- Oja's rule and Similarity Matching--and in stochastic gradient descent applied to autoencoders and a supervised two-layer network. We consistently observe that the drift rate increases with the variance and the dimension of the data in the task-irrelevant subspace.

Computational methods for learning to sample from the Boltzmann distribution-- where the target distribution is known only up to an unnormalized energy function-- have advanced significantly recently. Due to the lack of explicit target samples, however, prior diffusion-based methods, known as diffusion samplers, often require importance-weighted estimation or complicated learning processes.

Graph condensation, which reduces the size of a large-scale graph by synthesizing a small-scale condensed graph as its substitution, has immediate benefits for various graph learning tasks. However, existing graph condensation methods rely on the joint optimization of nodes and structures in the condensed graph, and overlook critical issues in effectiveness and generalization ability. In this paper, we advocate a new Structure-Free Graph Condensation paradigm, named SFGC, to distill a largescale graph into a small-scale graph node set without explicit graph structures, i.e., graph-free data. Our idea is to implicitly encode topology structure information into the node attributes in the synthesized graph-free data, whose topology is reduced to an identity matrix.

In recent years, there has been much interest in understanding the generalization behavior of interpolating predictors, which overfit on noisy training data. Whereas standard analyses are concerned with whether a method is consistent or not, recent observations have shown that even inconsistent predictors can generalize well. In this work, we revisit the classic interpolating Nadaraya-Watson (NW) estimator (also known as Shepard's method), and study its generalization capabilities through this modern viewpoint. In particular, by varying a single bandwidth-like hyperparameter, we prove the existence of multiple overfitting behaviors, ranging non-monotonically from catastrophic, through benign, to tempered. Our results highlight how even classical interpolating methods can exhibit intricate generalization behaviors. In addition, for the purpose of tuning the hyperparameter, the results suggest that over-estimating the intrinsic dimension of the data is less harmful than under-estimating it. Numerical experiments complement our theory, demonstrating the same phenomena.

Sampling from high dimensional distributions is a computational bottleneck in many scientific applications. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), and in particular the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS), are widely used, yet they struggle on problems with a very large number of parameters or a complicated geometry. Microcanonical Langevin Monte Carlo (MCLMC) has been recently proposed as an alternative which shows striking gains in efficiency over NUTS, especially for high-dimensional problems. However, it produces biased samples, with a bias that is hard to control in general. We introduce the Metropolis-Adjusted Microcanonical sampler (MAMS), which relies on the same dynamics as MCLMC, but introduces a Metropolis-Hastings step and thus produces asymptotically unbiased samples. We develop an automated tuning scheme for the hyperparameters of the algorithm, making it applicable out of the box. We demonstrate that MAMS outperforms NUTS across the board on benchmark problems of varying complexity and dimensionality, achieving up to a factor of seven speedup.

Large language models are increasingly used as judges (LLM-as-a-judge) to evaluate model outputs at scale, but their assessments often diverge systematically from human judgments.

Even in low dimensions, sampling from multi-modal distributions is challenging. We provide the first sampling algorithm for a broad class of distributions -- including all Gaussian mixtures -- with a query complexity that is polynomial in the parameters governing multi-modality, assuming fixed dimension. Our sampling algorithm simulates a time-reversed diffusion process, using a self-normalized Monte Carlo estimator of the intermediate score functions. Unlike previous works, it avoids metastability, requires no prior knowledge of the mode locations, and relaxes the well-known log-smoothness assumption which excluded general Gaussian mixtures so far.