In the realm of cryptocurrency, the prediction of Bitcoin prices has garnered substantial attention due to its potential impact on financial markets and investment strategies. This paper propose a comparative study on hybrid machine learning algorithms and leverage on enhancing model interpretability. Specifically, linear regression(OLS, LASSO), long-short term memory(LSTM), decision tree regressors are introduced. Through the grounded experiments, we observe linear regressor achieves the best performance among candidate models. For the interpretability, we carry out a systematic overview on the preprocessing techniques of time-series statistics, including decomposition, auto-correlational function, exponential triple forecasting, which aim to excavate latent relations and complex patterns appeared in the financial time-series forecasting. We believe this work may derive more attention and inspire more researches in the realm of time-series analysis and its realistic applications.

Accurate air quality forecasting is crucial for public health, environmental monitoring and protection, and urban planning. However, existing methods fail to effectively utilize multi-scale information, both spatially and temporally. Spatially, there is a lack of integration between individual monitoring stations and city-wide scales. Temporally, the periodic nature of air quality variations is often overlooked or inadequately considered. To address these limitations, we present a novel Multi-spatial Multi-temporal air quality forecasting method based on Graph Convolutional Networks and Gated Recurrent Units (M2G2), bridging the gap in air quality forecasting across spatial and temporal scales. The proposed framework consists of two modules: Multi-scale Spatial GCN (MS-GCN) for spatial information fusion and Multi-scale Temporal GRU(MT-GRU) for temporal information integration. In the spatial dimension, the MS-GCN module employs a bidirectional learnable structure and a residual structure, enabling comprehensive information exchange between individual monitoring stations and the city-scale graph. Regarding the temporal dimension, the MT-GRU module adaptively combines information from different temporal scales through parallel hidden states. Leveraging meteorological indicators and four air quality indicators, we present comprehensive comparative analyses and ablation experiments, showcasing the higher accuracy of M2G2 in comparison to nine currently available advanced approaches across all aspects. The improvements of M2G2 over the second-best method on RMSE of the 24h/48h/72h are as follows: PM2.5: (7.72%, 6.67%, 10.45%); PM10: (6.43%, 5.68%, 7.73%); NO2: (5.07%, 7.76%, 16.60%); O3: (6.46%, 6.86%, 9.79%). Furthermore, we demonstrate the effectiveness of each module of M2G2 by ablation study.

Multivariate time series forecasting poses an ongoing challenge across various disciplines. Time series data often exhibit diverse intra-series and inter-series correlations, contributing to intricate and interwoven dependencies that have been the focus of numerous studies. Nevertheless, a significant research gap remains in comprehending the varying inter-series correlations across different time scales among multiple time series, an area that has received limited attention in the literature. To bridge this gap, this paper introduces MSGNet, an advanced deep learning model designed to capture the varying inter-series correlations across multiple time scales using frequency domain analysis and adaptive graph convolution. By leveraging frequency domain analysis, MSGNet effectively extracts salient periodic patterns and decomposes the time series into distinct time scales. The model incorporates a self-attention mechanism to capture intra-series dependencies, while introducing an adaptive mixhop graph convolution layer to autonomously learn diverse inter-series correlations within each time scale. Extensive experiments are conducted on several real-world datasets to showcase the effectiveness of MSGNet. Furthermore, MSGNet possesses the ability to automatically learn explainable multi-scale inter-series correlations, exhibiting strong generalization capabilities even when applied to out-of-distribution samples.

Many Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) methods train their models to be invariant to different "views" of an image and considerable efforts were directed towards improving pre-text tasks, architectures, or robustness. However, most SSL methods remain reliant on the random sampling of operations within the image augmentation pipeline, such as the random resized crop operation. We argue that the role of the view generation and its effect on performance has so far received insufficient attention. To address this, we propose an easy, learning-free, yet powerful Hard View Selection (HVS) strategy designed to extend the random view generation to expose the pretrained model to harder samples during SSL training. It encompasses the following iterative steps: 1) randomly sample multiple views and create pairs of two views, 2) run forward passes for each view pair on the currently trained model, 3) adversarially select the pair yielding the worst loss depending on the current model state, and 4) run the backward pass with the selected pair. As a result, HVS consistently achieves accuracy improvements between 0.91% and 1.93% on ImageNet linear evaluation and similar improvements on transfer tasks across DINO, SimSiam, iBOT and SimCLR. We provide studies to shed light on the inner workings and show that, by naively using smaller resolution images for the selection step, we can significantly reduce the computational overhead while retaining performance. Surprisingly, even when accounting for the computational overhead incurred by HVS, we achieve performance gains between 0.52% and 1.02% and closely rival the 800-epoch DINO pretraining with only 300 epochs. Various approaches to learn effective and generalizable visual representations in Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) exist. Such views are generated by applying a sequence of (randomly sampled) image transformations and are usually composed of geometric (cropping, rotation, etc.) and appearance (color distortion, blurring, etc.) transformations. A body of literature (Chen et al., 2020a; Wu et al., 2020; Purushwalkam & Gupta, 2020; Wagner et al., 2022; Tian et al., 2020b) has illuminated the effects of image views on representation learning and identified random resized crop (RRC) transformation, which However, despite this finding and to our best knowledge, little research has gone into identifying more effective ways for selecting or generating views to improve performance.

We present a novel adversarial model for authentication systems that use gait patterns recorded by the inertial measurement unit (IMU) built into smartphones. The attack idea is inspired by and named after the concept of a dictionary attack on knowledge (PIN or password) based authentication systems. In particular, this work investigates whether it is possible to build a dictionary of IMUGait patterns and use it to launch an attack or find an imitator who can actively reproduce IMUGait patterns that match the target's IMUGait pattern. Nine physically and demographically diverse individuals walked at various levels of four predefined controllable and adaptable gait factors (speed, step length, step width, and thigh-lift), producing 178 unique IMUGait patterns. Each pattern attacked a wide variety of user authentication models. The deeper analysis of error rates (before and after the attack) challenges the belief that authentication systems based on IMUGait patterns are the most difficult to spoof; further research is needed on adversarial models and associated countermeasures.

English as foreign language_EFL_students' use of text generated from artificial intelligence_AI_natural language generation_NLG_tools may improve their writing quality. However, it remains unclear to what extent AI-generated text in these students' writing might lead to higher-quality writing. We explored 23 Hong Kong secondary school students' attempts to write stories comprising their own words and AI-generated text. Human experts scored the stories for dimensions of content, language and organization. We analyzed the basic organization and structure and syntactic complexity of the stories' AI-generated text and performed multiple linear regression and cluster analyses. The results show the number of human words and the number of AI-generated words contribute significantly to scores. Besides, students can be grouped into competent and less competent writers who use more AI-generated text or less AI-generated text compared to their peers. Comparisons of clusters reveal some benefit of AI-generated text in improving the quality of both high-scoring students' and low-scoring students' writing. The findings can inform pedagogical strategies to use AI-generated text for EFL students' writing and to address digital divides. This study contributes designs of NLG tools and writing activities to implement AI-generated text in schools.

Quantum kernel methods are a candidate for quantum speed-ups in supervised machine learning. The number of quantum measurements N required for a reasonable kernel estimate is a critical resource, both from complexity considerations and because of the constraints of near-term quantum hardware. We emphasize that for classification tasks, the aim is reliable classification and not precise kernel evaluation, and demonstrate that the former is far more resource efficient. Furthermore, it is shown that the accuracy of classification is not a suitable performance metric in the presence of noise and we motivate a new metric that characterizes the reliability of classification. We then obtain a bound for N which ensures, with high probability, that classification errors over a dataset are bounded by the margin errors of an idealized quantum kernel classifier. Using chance constraint programming and the subgaussian bounds of quantum kernel distributions, we derive several Shot-frugal and Robust (ShofaR) programs starting from the primal formulation of the Support Vector Machine. This significantly reduces the number of quantum measurements needed and is robust to noise by construction. Our strategy is applicable to uncertainty in quantum kernels arising from any source of unbiased noise.

Group equivariant non-expansive operators have been recently proposed as basic components in topological data analysis and deep learning. In this paper we study some geometric properties of the spaces of group equivariant operators and show how a space $\mathcal{F}$ of group equivariant non-expansive operators can be endowed with the structure of a Riemannian manifold, so making available the use of gradient descent methods for the minimization of cost functions on $\mathcal{F}$. As an application of this approach, we also describe a procedure to select a finite set of representative group equivariant non-expansive operators in the considered manifold.

The line coverage problem involves finding efficient routes for the coverage of linear features by one or more resource-constrained robots. Linear features model environments like road networks, power lines, and oil and gas pipelines. Two modes of travel are defined for robots: servicing and deadheading. A robot services a feature if it performs task-specific actions, such as taking images, as it traverses the feature; otherwise, it is deadheading. Traversing the environment incurs costs (e.g., travel time) and demands on resources (e.g., battery life). Servicing and deadheading can have different cost and demand functions, which can be direction-dependent. The environment is modeled as a graph, and an integer linear program is provided. As the problem is NP-hard, we design a fast and efficient heuristic algorithm, Merge-Embed-Merge (MEM). Exploiting the constructive property of the MEM algorithm, algorithms for line coverage of large graphs with multiple depots are developed. Furthermore, turning costs and nonholonomic constraints are efficiently incorporated into the algorithm. The algorithms are benchmarked on road networks and demonstrated in experiments with aerial robots.

This paper describes an approach to simultaneously identify clusters and estimate cluster-specific regression parameters from the given data. Such an approach can be useful in learning the relationship between input and output when the regression parameters for estimating output are different in different regions of the input space. Variational Inference (VI), a machine learning approach to obtain posterior probability densities using optimization techniques, is used to identify clusters of explanatory variables and regression parameters for each cluster. From these results, one can obtain both the expected value and the full distribution of predicted output. Other advantages of the proposed approach include the elegant theoretical solution and clear interpretability of results. The proposed approach is well-suited for financial forecasting where markets have different regimes (or clusters) with different patterns and correlations of market changes in each regime. In financial applications, knowledge about such clusters can provide useful insights about portfolio performance and identify the relative importance of variables in different market regimes. An illustrative example of predicting one-day S&P change is considered to illustrate the approach and compare the performance of the proposed approach with standard regression without clusters. Due to the broad applicability of the problem, its elegant theoretical solution, and the computational efficiency of the proposed algorithm, the approach may be useful in a number of areas extending beyond the financial domain.