Factor Analysis based on multivariate $t$ distribution ($t$fa) is a useful robust tool for extracting common factors on heavy-tailed or contaminated data. However, $t$fa is only applicable to vector data. When $t$fa is applied to matrix data, it is common to first vectorize the matrix observations. This introduces two challenges for $t$fa: (i) the inherent matrix structure of the data is broken, and (ii) robustness may be lost, as vectorized matrix data typically results in a high data dimension, which could easily lead to the breakdown of $t$fa. To address these issues, starting from the intrinsic matrix structure of matrix data, a novel robust factor analysis model, namely bilinear factor analysis built on the matrix-variate $t$ distribution ($t$bfa), is proposed in this paper. The novelty is that it is capable to simultaneously extract common factors for both row and column variables of interest on heavy-tailed or contaminated matrix data. Two efficient algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation of $t$bfa are developed. Closed-form expression for the Fisher information matrix to calculate the accuracy of parameter estimates are derived. Empirical studies are conducted to understand the proposed $t$bfa model and compare with related competitors. The results demonstrate the superiority and practicality of $t$bfa. Importantly, $t$bfa exhibits a significantly higher breakdown point than $t$fa, making it more suitable for matrix data.

We introduce a novel sampler called the energy based diffusion generator for generating samples from arbitrary target distributions. The sampling model employs a structure similar to a variational autoencoder, utilizing a decoder to transform latent variables from a simple distribution into random variables approximating the target distribution, and we design an encoder based on the diffusion model. Leveraging the powerful modeling capacity of the diffusion model for complex distributions, we can obtain an accurate variational estimate of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the distributions of the generated samples and the target. Moreover, we propose a decoder based on generalized Hamiltonian dynamics to further enhance sampling performance. Through empirical evaluation, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method across various complex distribution functions, showcasing its superiority compared to existing methods.

Neural marked temporal point processes have been a valuable addition to the existing toolbox of statistical parametric models for continuous-time event data. These models are useful for sequences where each event is associated with a single item (a single type of event or a "mark") -- but such models are not suited for the practical situation where each event is associated with a set of items. In this work, we develop a general framework for modeling set-valued data in continuous-time, compatible with any intensity-based recurrent neural point process model. In addition, we develop inference methods that can use such models to answer probabilistic queries such as "the probability of item $A$ being observed before item $B$," conditioned on sequence history. Computing exact answers for such queries is generally intractable for neural models due to both the continuous-time nature of the problem setting and the combinatorially-large space of potential outcomes for each event. To address this, we develop a class of importance sampling methods for querying with set-based sequences and demonstrate orders-of-magnitude improvements in efficiency over direct sampling via systematic experiments with four real-world datasets. We also illustrate how to use this framework to perform model selection using likelihoods that do not involve one-step-ahead prediction.

Bayesian networks (BNs) are a foundational model in machine learning and causal inference. Their graphical structure can handle high-dimensional problems, divide them into a sparse collection of smaller ones, underlies Judea Pearl's causality, and determines their explainability and interpretability. Despite their popularity, there are almost no resources in the literature on how to compute Shannon's entropy and the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence for BNs under their most common distributional assumptions. In this paper, we provide computationally efficient algorithms for both by leveraging BNs' graphical structure, and we illustrate them with a complete set of numerical examples. In the process, we show it is possible to reduce the computational complexity of KL from cubic to quadratic for Gaussian BNs.

Longitudinal network, also known as temporal network or continuous-time dynamic network, consists of a sequence of temporal edges among multiple nodes, where the temporal edges may be observed between each node pair in real time (Holme and Saramäki, 2012). It provides a flexible framework for modeling dynamic interactions between multiple objects and how network structure evolves over time (Aggarwal and Subbian, 2014). For instances, in online social platform such as Facebook, users send likes to the posts of their friends recurrently at different time (Perry-Smith and Shalley, 2003; Snijders et al., 2010); in international politics, countries may have conflict with others at one time but become allies at others (Cranmer and Desmarais, 2011; Kinne, 2013). Similar longitudinal networks have also been frequently encountered in biological science (Voytek and Knight, 2015; Avena-Koenigsberger et al., 2018) and ecological science (Ulanowicz, 2004; De Ruiter et al., 2005). One of the key challenges in estimating longitudinal network resides in its scarce temporal edges, as the interactions between node pairs are instantaneous and come in a streaming fashion (Holme and Saramäki, 2012), and thus the observed network at each given time point can be extremely sparse. This makes longitudinal network substantially different from discrete-time dynamic network (Kim et al., 2018), where multiple snapshots of networks are collected each with much more observed edges.

Kernel Stein discrepancies (KSDs) measure the quality of a distributional approximation and can be computed even when the target density has an intractable normalizing constant. Notable applications include the diagnosis of approximate MCMC samplers and goodness-of-fit tests for unnormalized statistical models. The present work analyzes the convergence control properties of KSDs. We first show that standard KSDs used for weak convergence control fail to control moment convergence. To address this limitation, we next provide sufficient conditions under which alternative diffusion KSDs control both moment and weak convergence. As an immediate consequence we develop, for each $q > 0$, the first KSDs known to exactly characterize $q$-Wasserstein convergence.

Gradient-enhanced Kriging (GE-Kriging) is a well-established surrogate modelling technique for approximating expensive computational models. However, it tends to get impractical for high-dimensional problems due to the size of the inherent correlation matrix and the associated high-dimensional hyper-parameter tuning problem. To address these issues, a new method, called sliced GE-Kriging (SGE-Kriging), is developed in this paper for reducing both the size of the correlation matrix and the number of hyper-parameters. We first split the training sample set into multiple slices, and invoke Bayes' theorem to approximate the full likelihood function via a sliced likelihood function, in which multiple small correlation matrices are utilized to describe the correlation of the sample set rather than one large one. Then, we replace the original high-dimensional hyper-parameter tuning problem with a low-dimensional counterpart by learning the relationship between the hyper-parameters and the derivative-based global sensitivity indices. The performance of SGE-Kriging is finally validated by means of numerical experiments with several benchmarks and a high-dimensional aerodynamic modeling problem. The results show that the SGE-Kriging model features an accuracy and robustness that is comparable to the standard one but comes at much less training costs. The benefits are most evident for high-dimensional problems with tens of variables.

We discuss causal inference for observational studies with possibly invalid instrumental variables. We propose a novel methodology called two-stage curvature identification (TSCI) by exploring the nonlinear treatment model with machine learning. The first-stage machine learning enables improving the instrumental variable's strength and adjusting for different forms of violating the instrumental variable assumptions. The success of TSCI requires the instrumental variable's effect on treatment to differ from its violation form. A novel bias correction step is implemented to remove bias resulting from the potentially high complexity of machine learning. Our proposed TSCI estimator is shown to be asymptotically unbiased and Gaussian even if the machine learning algorithm does not consistently estimate the treatment model. Furthermore, we design a data-dependent method to choose the best among several candidate violation forms. We apply TSCI to study the effect of education on earnings.

Leakages are a major risk in water distribution networks as they cause water loss and increase contamination risks. Leakage detection is a difficult task due to the complex dynamics of water distribution networks. In particular, small leakages are hard to detect. From a machine-learning perspective, leakages can be modeled as concept drift. Thus, a wide variety of drift detection schemes seems to be a suitable choice for detecting leakages. In this work, we explore the potential of model-loss-based and distribution-based drift detection methods to tackle leakage detection. We additionally discuss the issue of temporal dependencies in the data and propose a way to cope with it when applying distribution-based detection. We evaluate different methods systematically for leakages of different sizes and detection times. Additionally, we propose a first drift-detection-based technique for localizing leakages.

This paper introduces a novel two-stage machine learning-based surrogate modeling framework to address inverse problems in scientific and engineering fields. In the first stage of the proposed framework, a machine learning model termed the "learner" identifies a limited set of candidates within the input design space whose predicted outputs closely align with desired outcomes. Subsequently, in the second stage, a separate surrogate model, functioning as an "evaluator," is employed to assess the reduced candidate space generated in the first stage. This evaluation process eliminates inaccurate and uncertain solutions, guided by a user-defined coverage level. The framework's distinctive contribution is the integration of conformal inference, providing a versatile and efficient approach that can be widely applicable. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework compared to conventional single-stage inverse problems, we conduct several benchmark tests and investigate an engineering application focused on the micromechanical modeling of fiber-reinforced composites. The results affirm the superiority of our proposed framework, as it consistently produces more reliable solutions. Therefore, the introduced framework offers a unique perspective on fostering interactions between machine learning-based surrogate models in real-world applications.