Statistical Learning
XGBoost Learning of Dynamic Wager Placement for In-Play Betting on an Agent-Based Model of a Sports Betting Exchange
We present first results from the use of XGBoost, a highly effective machine learning (ML) method, within the Bristol Betting Exchange (BBE), an open-source agent-based model (ABM) designed to simulate a contemporary sports-betting exchange with in-play betting during track-racing events such as horse races. We use the BBE ABM and its array of minimally-simple bettor-agents as a synthetic data generator which feeds into our XGBoost ML system, with the intention that XGBoost discovers profitable dynamic betting strategies by learning from the more profitable bets made by the BBE bettor-agents. After this XGBoost training, which results in one or more decision trees, a bettor-agent with a betting strategy determined by the XGBoost-learned decision tree(s) is added to the BBE ABM and made to bet on a sequence of races under various conditions and betting-market scenarios, with profitability serving as the primary metric of comparison and evaluation. Our initial findings presented here show that XGBoost trained in this way can indeed learn profitable betting strategies, and can generalise to learn strategies that outperform each of the set of strategies used for creation of the training data. To foster further research and enhancements, the complete version of our extended BBE, including the XGBoost integration, has been made freely available as an open-source release on GitHub.
How does the primate brain combine generative and discriminative computations in vision?
Peters, Benjamin, DiCarlo, James J., Gureckis, Todd, Haefner, Ralf, Isik, Leyla, Tenenbaum, Joshua, Konkle, Talia, Naselaris, Thomas, Stachenfeld, Kimberly, Tavares, Zenna, Tsao, Doris, Yildirim, Ilker, Kriegeskorte, Nikolaus
Vision is widely understood as an inference problem. However, two contrasting conceptions of the inference process have each been influential in research on biological vision as well as the engineering of machine vision. The first emphasizes bottom-up signal flow, describing vision as a largely feedforward, discriminative inference process that filters and transforms the visual information to remove irrelevant variation and represent behaviorally relevant information in a format suitable for downstream functions of cognition and behavioral control. In this conception, vision is driven by the sensory data, and perception is direct because the processing proceeds from the data to the latent variables of interest. The notion of "inference" in this conception is that of the engineering literature on neural networks, where feedforward convolutional neural networks processing images are said to perform inference. The alternative conception is that of vision as an inference process in Helmholtz's sense, where the sensory evidence is evaluated in the context of a generative model of the causal processes giving rise to it. In this conception, vision inverts a generative model through an interrogation of the evidence in a process often thought to involve top-down predictions of sensory data to evaluate the likelihood of alternative hypotheses. The authors include scientists rooted in roughly equal numbers in each of the conceptions and motivated to overcome what might be a false dichotomy between them and engage the other perspective in the realm of theory and experiment. The primate brain employs an unknown algorithm that may combine the advantages of both conceptions. We explain and clarify the terminology, review the key empirical evidence, and propose an empirical research program that transcends the dichotomy and sets the stage for revealing the mysterious hybrid algorithm of primate vision.
The Role of Deep Learning in Advancing Proactive Cybersecurity Measures for Smart Grid Networks: A Survey
Abdi, Nima, Albaseer, Abdullatif, Abdallah, Mohamed
As smart grids (SG) increasingly rely on advanced technologies like sensors and communication systems for efficient energy generation, distribution, and consumption, they become enticing targets for sophisticated cyberattacks. These evolving threats demand robust security measures to maintain the stability and resilience of modern energy systems. While extensive research has been conducted, a comprehensive exploration of proactive cyber defense strategies utilizing Deep Learning (DL) in {SG} remains scarce in the literature. This survey bridges this gap, studying the latest DL techniques for proactive cyber defense. The survey begins with an overview of related works and our distinct contributions, followed by an examination of SG infrastructure. Next, we classify various cyber defense techniques into reactive and proactive categories. A significant focus is placed on DL-enabled proactive defenses, where we provide a comprehensive taxonomy of DL approaches, highlighting their roles and relevance in the proactive security of SG. Subsequently, we analyze the most significant DL-based methods currently in use. Further, we explore Moving Target Defense, a proactive defense strategy, and its interactions with DL methodologies. We then provide an overview of benchmark datasets used in this domain to substantiate the discourse.{ This is followed by a critical discussion on their practical implications and broader impact on cybersecurity in Smart Grids.} The survey finally lists the challenges associated with deploying DL-based security systems within SG, followed by an outlook on future developments in this key field.
Decoding AI's Nudge: A Unified Framework to Predict Human Behavior in AI-assisted Decision Making
Li, Zhuoyan, Lu, Zhuoran, Yin, Ming
With the rapid development of AI-based decision aids, different forms of AI assistance have been increasingly integrated into the human decision making processes. To best support humans in decision making, it is essential to quantitatively understand how diverse forms of AI assistance influence humans' decision making behavior. To this end, much of the current research focuses on the end-to-end prediction of human behavior using ``black-box'' models, often lacking interpretations of the nuanced ways in which AI assistance impacts the human decision making process. Meanwhile, methods that prioritize the interpretability of human behavior predictions are often tailored for one specific form of AI assistance, making adaptations to other forms of assistance difficult. In this paper, we propose a computational framework that can provide an interpretable characterization of the influence of different forms of AI assistance on decision makers in AI-assisted decision making. By conceptualizing AI assistance as the ``{\em nudge}'' in human decision making processes, our approach centers around modelling how different forms of AI assistance modify humans' strategy in weighing different information in making their decisions. Evaluations on behavior data collected from real human decision makers show that the proposed framework outperforms various baselines in accurately predicting human behavior in AI-assisted decision making. Based on the proposed framework, we further provide insights into how individuals with different cognitive styles are nudged by AI assistance differently.
Discovering Low-rank Subspaces for Language-agnostic Multilingual Representations
Xie, Zhihui, Zhao, Handong, Yu, Tong, Li, Shuai
Large pretrained multilingual language models (ML-LMs) have shown remarkable capabilities of zero-shot cross-lingual transfer, without direct cross-lingual supervision. While these results are promising, follow-up works found that, within the multilingual embedding spaces, there exists strong language identity information which hinders the expression of linguistic factors shared across languages. For semantic tasks like cross-lingual sentence retrieval, it is desired to remove such language identity signals to fully leverage semantic information. In this work, we provide a novel view of projecting away language-specific factors from a multilingual embedding space. Specifically, we discover that there exists a low-rank subspace that primarily encodes information irrelevant to semantics (e.g., syntactic information). To identify this subspace, we present a simple but effective unsupervised method based on singular value decomposition with multiple monolingual corpora as input. Once the subspace is found, we can directly project the original embeddings into the null space to boost language agnosticism without finetuning. We systematically evaluate our method on various tasks including the challenging language-agnostic QA retrieval task. Empirical results show that applying our method consistently leads to improvements over commonly used ML-LMs.
Dynamic Indoor Fingerprinting Localization based on Few-Shot Meta-Learning with CSI Images
Jiao, Jiyu, Wang, Xiaojun, Han, Chenpei, Huang, Yuhua, Zhang, Yizhuo
While fingerprinting localization is favored for its effectiveness, it is hindered by high data acquisition costs and the inaccuracy of static database-based estimates. Addressing these issues, this letter presents an innovative indoor localization method using a data-efficient meta-learning algorithm. This approach, grounded in the ``Learning to Learn'' paradigm of meta-learning, utilizes historical localization tasks to improve adaptability and learning efficiency in dynamic indoor environments. We introduce a task-weighted loss to enhance knowledge transfer within this framework. Our comprehensive experiments confirm the method's robustness and superiority over current benchmarks, achieving a notable 23.13\% average gain in Mean Euclidean Distance, particularly effective in scenarios with limited CSI data.
Use of Graph Neural Networks in Aiding Defensive Cyber Operations
Mitra, Shaswata, Chakraborty, Trisha, Neupane, Subash, Piplai, Aritran, Mittal, Sudip
In an increasingly interconnected world, where information is the lifeblood of modern society, regular cyber-attacks sabotage the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of digital systems and information. Additionally, cyber-attacks differ depending on the objective and evolve rapidly to disguise defensive systems. However, a typical cyber-attack demonstrates a series of stages from attack initiation to final resolution, called an attack life cycle. These diverse characteristics and the relentless evolution of cyber attacks have led cyber defense to adopt modern approaches like Machine Learning to bolster defensive measures and break the attack life cycle. Among the adopted ML approaches, Graph Neural Networks have emerged as a promising approach for enhancing the effectiveness of defensive measures due to their ability to process and learn from heterogeneous cyber threat data. In this paper, we look into the application of GNNs in aiding to break each stage of one of the most renowned attack life cycles, the Lockheed Martin Cyber Kill Chain. We address each phase of CKC and discuss how GNNs contribute to preparing and preventing an attack from a defensive standpoint. Furthermore, We also discuss open research areas and further improvement scopes.
Machine Learning Applications in Traumatic Brain Injury: A Spotlight on Mild TBI
Ellethy, Hanem, Chandra, Shekhar S., Vegh, Viktor
Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) poses a significant global public health challenge, contributing to high morbidity and mortality rates and placing a substantial economic burden on healthcare systems worldwide. The diagnosis of TBI relies on clinical information along with Computed Tomography (CT) scans. Addressing the multifaceted challenges posed by TBI has seen the development of innovative, data-driven approaches, for this complex condition. Particularly noteworthy is the prevalence of mild TBI (mTBI), which constitutes the majority of TBI cases where conventional methods often fall short. As such, we review the state-of-the-art Machine Learning (ML) techniques applied to clinical information and CT scans in TBI, with a particular focus on mTBI. We categorize ML applications based on their data sources, and there is a spectrum of ML techniques used to date. Most of these techniques have primarily focused on diagnosis, with relatively few attempts at predicting the prognosis. This review may serve as a source of inspiration for future research studies aimed at improving the diagnosis of TBI using data-driven approaches and standard diagnostic data.
The cell signaling structure function
Aho, Layton, Winter, Mark, DeCarlo, Marc, Frismantiene, Agne, Blum, Yannick, Gagliardi, Paolo Armando, Pertz, Olivier, Cohen, Andrew R.
Live cell microscopy captures 5-D $(x,y,z,channel,time)$ movies that display patterns of cellular motion and signaling dynamics. We present here an approach to finding spatiotemporal patterns of cell signaling dynamics in 5-D live cell microscopy movies unique in requiring no a priori knowledge of expected pattern dynamics, and no training data. The proposed cell signaling structure function (SSF) is a Kolmogorov structure function that optimally measures cell signaling state as nuclear intensity w.r.t. surrounding cytoplasm, a significant improvement compared to the current state-of-the-art cytonuclear ratio. SSF kymographs store at each spatiotemporal cell centroid the SSF value, or a functional output such as velocity. Patterns of similarity are identified via the metric normalized compression distance (NCD). The NCD is a reproducing kernel for a Hilbert space that represents the input SSF kymographs as points in a low dimensional embedding that optimally captures the pattern similarity identified by the NCD throughout the space. The only parameter is the expected cell radii ($\mu m$). A new formulation of the cluster structure function optimally estimates how meaningful an embedding from the RKHS representation. Results are presented quantifying the impact of ERK and AKT signaling between different oncogenic mutations, and by the relation between ERK signaling and cellular velocity patterns for movies of 2-D monolayers of human breast epithelial (MCF10A) cells, 3-D MCF10A spheroids under optogenetic manipulation of ERK, and human induced pluripotent stem cells .
Communication-Efficient Federated Optimization over Semi-Decentralized Networks
In large-scale federated and decentralized learning, communication efficiency is one of the most challenging bottlenecks. While gossip communication -- where agents can exchange information with their connected neighbors -- is more cost-effective than communicating with the remote server, it often requires a greater number of communication rounds, especially for large and sparse networks. To tackle the trade-off, we examine the communication efficiency under a semi-decentralized communication protocol, in which agents can perform both agent-to-agent and agent-to-server communication in a probabilistic manner. We design a tailored communication-efficient algorithm over semi-decentralized networks, referred to as PISCO, which inherits the robustness to data heterogeneity thanks to gradient tracking and allows multiple local updates for saving communication. We establish the convergence rate of PISCO for nonconvex problems and show that PISCO enjoys a linear speedup in terms of the number of agents and local updates. Our numerical results highlight the superior communication efficiency of PISCO and its resilience to data heterogeneity and various network topologies.