Various methods have recently been proposed to estimate causal effects with confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over a set of data generating processes when high-dimensional nuisance models are estimated by post-model-selection or machine learning estimators. These methods typically require that all the confounders are observed to ensure identification of the effects. We contribute by showing how valid semiparametric inference can be obtained in the presence of unobserved confounders and high-dimensional nuisance models. We propose uncertainty intervals which allow for unobserved confounding, and show that the resulting inference is valid when the amount of unobserved confounding is small relative to the sample size; the latter is formalized in terms of convergence rates. Simulation experiments illustrate the finite sample properties of the proposed intervals and investigate an alternative procedure that improves the empirical coverage of the intervals when the amount of unobserved confounding is large. Finally, a case study on the effect of smoking during pregnancy on birth weight is used to illustrate the use of the methods introduced to perform a sensitivity analysis to unobserved confounding.

Computer simulations (a.k.a. white-box models) are more indispensable than ever to model intricate engineering systems. However, computational models alone often fail to fully capture the complexities of reality. When physical experiments are accessible though, it is of interest to enhance the incomplete information offered by computational models. Gray-box modeling is concerned with the problem of merging information from data-driven (a.k.a. black-box) models and white-box (i.e., physics-based) models. In this paper, we propose to perform this task by using multi-fidelity surrogate models (MFSMs). A MFSM integrates information from models with varying computational fidelity into a new surrogate model. The multi-fidelity surrogate modeling framework we propose handles noise-contaminated data and is able to estimate the underlying noise-free high-fidelity function. Our methodology emphasizes on delivering precise estimates of the uncertainty in its predictions in the form of confidence and prediction intervals, by quantitatively incorporating the different types of uncertainty that affect the problem, arising from measurement noise and from lack of knowledge due to the limited experimental design budget on both the high- and low-fidelity models. Applied to gray-box modeling, our MFSM framework treats noisy experimental data as the high-fidelity and the white-box computational models as their low-fidelity counterparts. The effectiveness of our methodology is showcased through synthetic examples and a wind turbine application.

An over-reliance on the less-affected limb for functional tasks at the expense of the paretic limb and in spite of recovered capacity is an often-observed phenomenon in survivors of hemispheric stroke. The difference between capacity for use and actual spontaneous use is referred to as arm nonuse. Obtaining an ecologically valid evaluation of arm nonuse is challenging because it requires the observation of spontaneous arm choice for different tasks, which can easily be influenced by instructions, presumed expectations, and awareness that one is being tested. To better quantify arm nonuse, we developed the Bimanual Arm Reaching Test with a Robot (BARTR) for quantitatively assessing arm nonuse in chronic stroke survivors. The BARTR is an instrument that utilizes a robot arm as a means of remote and unbiased data collection of nuanced spatial data for clinical evaluations of arm nonuse. This approach shows promise for determining the efficacy of interventions designed to reduce paretic arm nonuse and enhance functional recovery after stroke. We show that the BARTR satisfies the criteria of an appropriate metric for neurorehabilitative contexts: it is valid, reliable, and simple to use.

Scoring the driving performance of various drivers on a unified scale, based on how safe or economical they drive on their daily trips, is essential for the driver profile task. Connected vehicles provide the opportunity to collect real-world driving data, which is advantageous for constructing scoring models. However, the lack of pre-labeled scores impede the use of supervised regression models and the data privacy issues hinder the way of traditionally data-centralized learning on the cloud side for model training. To address them, an unsupervised scoring method is presented without the need for labels while still preserving fairness and objectiveness compared to subjective scoring strategies. Subsequently, a federated learning framework based on vehicle-cloud collaboration is proposed as a privacy-friendly alternative to centralized learning. This framework includes a consistently federated version of the scoring method to reduce the performance degradation of the global scoring model caused by the statistical heterogeneous challenge of local data. Theoretical and experimental analysis demonstrate that our federated scoring model is consistent with the utility of the centrally learned counterpart and is effective in evaluating driving performance.

Parameter prediction is essential for many applications, facilitating insightful interpretation and decision-making. However, in many real life domains, such as power systems, medicine, and engineering, it can be very expensive to acquire ground truth labels for certain datasets as they may require extensive and expensive laboratory testing. In this work, we introduce a semi-supervised learning approach based on topological projections in self-organizing maps (SOMs), which significantly reduces the required number of labeled data points to perform parameter prediction, effectively exploiting information contained in large unlabeled datasets. Our proposed method first trains SOMs on unlabeled data and then a minimal number of available labeled data points are ultimately assigned to key best matching units (BMU). The values estimated for newly-encountered data points are computed utilizing the average of the $n$ closest labeled data points in the SOM's U-matrix in tandem with a topological shortest path distance calculation scheme. Our results indicate that the proposed semi-supervised model significantly outperforms traditional regression techniques, including linear and polynomial regression, Gaussian process regression, K-nearest neighbors, as well as various deep neural network models.

This personalized approach not only enhances the efficacy of treatments but also minimizes the risk of adverse effects (Agyeman and Ofori-Asenso, 2015; Kumari et al., 2023). However, the success of precision medicine heavily relies on the interpretation of complex, multidimensional data sets, where statistical analysis plays a pivotal role (Alyass et al., 2015). The integration of statistical methodologies in precision medicine is not just a mere addition but a fundamental necessity. Advanced statistical techniques enable the extraction of meaningful insights from large-scale genomics, proteomic, and metabolomic data, which are the cornerstone of precision medicine (Wafi and Mirnezami, 2018; Pinu et al., 2019). These methodologies include, but are not limited to, predictive modeling, machine learning algorithms, and complex data visualization techniques, all of which contribute to more accurate diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment planning (Bellazzi and Zupan, 2008; Davatzikos et al., 2018; Richter and Khoshgoftaar, 2018). The heterogeneity of data sources in precision medicine, ranging from electronic health records (EHRs) to high-throughput sequencing data, presents unique challenges in data integration and interpretation (Martinez-Garcia and Hernández-Lemus, 2022). Statistical analysis serves as a bridge, merging these diverse data types into coherent, interpretable information that can guide clinical decision-making. However, the field is not without its challenges. Issues such as overfitting, handling of highdimensional data, and maintaining the balance between model complexity and interpretability are ongoing areas of research (Bolón-Canedo et al., 2015; Xu et al., 2019; Bommert, 2020; Pes, 2020; Hou and Behdinan, 2022).

The problem is considered of optimizing discrete parameters in the presence of constraints. We use the stochastic sigmoid with temperature and put forward the new adaptive gradient method CONGA. The search for an optimal solution is carried out by a population of individuals. Each of them varies according to gradients of the 'environment' and is characterized by two temperature parameters with different annealing schedules. Unadapted individuals die, and optimal ones interbreed, the result is directed evolutionary dynamics. The proposed method is illustrated using the well-known combinatorial problem for optimal packing of a backpack (0-1 KP).

We analyze the convergence of stochastic heavy ball (SHB) momentum in the smooth, strongly-convex setting. Kidambi et al. (2018) show that SHB (with small mini-batches) cannot attain an accelerated rate of convergence even for quadratics, and conjecture that the practical gain of SHB is a by-product of mini-batching. We substantiate this claim by showing that SHB can obtain an accelerated rate when the mini-batch size is larger than some threshold. In particular, for strongly-convex quadratics with condition number $\kappa$, we prove that SHB with the standard step-size and momentum parameters results in an $O\left(\exp(-\frac{T}{\sqrt{\kappa}}) + \sigma \right)$ convergence rate, where $T$ is the number of iterations and $\sigma^2$ is the variance in the stochastic gradients. To ensure convergence to the minimizer, we propose a multi-stage approach that results in a noise-adaptive $O\left(\exp\left(-\frac{T}{\sqrt{\kappa}} \right) + \frac{\sigma}{T}\right)$ rate. For general strongly-convex functions, we use the averaging interpretation of SHB along with exponential step-sizes to prove an $O\left(\exp\left(-\frac{T}{\kappa} \right) + \frac{\sigma^2}{T} \right)$ convergence to the minimizer in a noise-adaptive manner. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

Recent text-based causal methods attempt to mitigate confounding bias by including unstructured text data as proxies of confounding variables that are partially or imperfectly measured. These approaches assume analysts have supervised labels of the confounders given text for a subset of instances, a constraint that is not always feasible due to data privacy or cost. Here, we address settings in which an important confounding variable is completely unobserved. We propose a new causal inference method that splits pre-treatment text data, infers two proxies from two zero-shot models on the separate splits, and applies these proxies in the proximal g-formula. We prove that our text-based proxy method satisfies identification conditions required by the proximal g-formula while other seemingly reasonable proposals do not. We evaluate our method in synthetic and semi-synthetic settings and find that it produces estimates with low bias. This combination of proximal causal inference and zero-shot classifiers is novel (to our knowledge) and expands the set of text-specific causal methods available to practitioners.

Feature removal is a central building block for eXplainable AI (XAI), both for occlusion-based explanations (Shapley values) as well as their evaluation (pixel flipping, PF). However, occlusion strategies can vary significantly from simple mean replacement up to inpainting with state-of-the-art diffusion models. This ambiguity limits the usefulness of occlusion-based approaches. For example, PF benchmarks lead to contradicting rankings. This is amplified by competing PF measures: Features are either removed starting with most influential first (MIF) or least influential first (LIF). This study proposes two complementary perspectives to resolve this disagreement problem. Firstly, we address the common criticism of occlusion-based XAI, that artificial samples lead to unreliable model evaluations. We propose to measure the reliability by the R(eference)-Out-of-Model-Scope (OMS) score. The R-OMS score enables a systematic comparison of occlusion strategies and resolves the disagreement problem by grouping consistent PF rankings. Secondly, we show that the insightfulness of MIF and LIF is conversely dependent on the R-OMS score. To leverage this, we combine the MIF and LIF measures into the symmetric relevance gain (SRG) measure. This breaks the inherent connection to the underlying occlusion strategy and leads to consistent rankings. This resolves the disagreement problem, which we verify for a set of 40 different occlusion strategies.