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 Statistical Learning


Class-attribute Priors: Adapting Optimization to Heterogeneity and Fairness Objective

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern classification problems exhibit heterogeneities across individual classes: Each class may have unique attributes, such as sample size, label quality, or predictability (easy vs difficult), and variable importance at test-time. Without care, these heterogeneities impede the learning process, most notably, when optimizing fairness objectives. Confirming this, under a gaussian mixture setting, we show that the optimal SVM classifier for balanced accuracy needs to be adaptive to the class attributes. This motivates us to propose CAP: An effective and general method that generates a class-specific learning strategy (e.g. hyperparameter) based on the attributes of that class. This way, optimization process better adapts to heterogeneities. CAP leads to substantial improvements over the naive approach of assigning separate hyperparameters to each class. We instantiate CAP for loss function design and post-hoc logit adjustment, with emphasis on label-imbalanced problems. We show that CAP is competitive with prior art and its flexibility unlocks clear benefits for fairness objectives beyond balanced accuracy. Finally, we evaluate CAP on problems with label noise as well as weighted test objectives to showcase how CAP can jointly adapt to different heterogeneities.


"All of Me": Mining Users' Attributes from their Public Spotify Playlists

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the age of digital music streaming, playlists on platforms like Spotify have become an integral part of individuals' musical experiences. People create and publicly share their own playlists to express their musical tastes, promote the discovery of their favorite artists, and foster social connections. These publicly accessible playlists transcend the boundaries of mere musical preferences: they serve as sources of rich insights into users' attributes and identities. For example, the musical preferences of elderly individuals may lean more towards Frank Sinatra, while Billie Eilish remains a favored choice among teenagers. These playlists thus become windows into the diverse and evolving facets of one's musical identity. In this work, we investigate the relationship between Spotify users' attributes and their public playlists. In particular, we focus on identifying recurring musical characteristics associated with users' individual attributes, such as demographics, habits, or personality traits. To this end, we conducted an online survey involving 739 Spotify users, yielding a dataset of 10,286 publicly shared playlists encompassing over 200,000 unique songs and 55,000 artists. Through extensive statistical analyses, we first assess a deep connection between a user's Spotify playlists and their real-life attributes. For instance, we found individuals high in openness often create playlists featuring a diverse array of artists, while female users prefer Pop and K-pop music genres. Building upon these observed associations, we create accurate predictive models for users' attributes, presenting a novel DeepSet application that outperforms baselines in most of these users' attributes.


Information Leakage Detection through Approximate Bayes-optimal Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In today's data-driven world, the proliferation of publicly available information intensifies the challenge of information leakage (IL), raising security concerns. IL involves unintentionally exposing secret (sensitive) information to unauthorized parties via systems' observable information. Conventional statistical approaches, which estimate mutual information (MI) between observable and secret information for detecting IL, face challenges such as the curse of dimensionality, convergence, computational complexity, and MI misestimation. Furthermore, emerging supervised machine learning (ML) methods, though effective, are limited to binary system-sensitive information and lack a comprehensive theoretical framework. To address these limitations, we establish a theoretical framework using statistical learning theory and information theory to accurately quantify and detect IL. We demonstrate that MI can be accurately estimated by approximating the log-loss and accuracy of the Bayes predictor. As the Bayes predictor is typically unknown in practice, we propose to approximate it with the help of automated machine learning (AutoML). First, we compare our MI estimation approaches against current baselines, using synthetic data sets generated using the multivariate normal (MVN) distribution with known MI. Second, we introduce a cut-off technique using one-sided statistical tests to detect IL, employing the Holm-Bonferroni correction to increase confidence in detection decisions. Our study evaluates IL detection performance on real-world data sets, highlighting the effectiveness of the Bayes predictor's log-loss estimation, and finds our proposed method to effectively estimate MI on synthetic data sets and thus detect ILs accurately.


Producing Plankton Classifiers that are Robust to Dataset Shift

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern plankton high-throughput monitoring relies on deep learning classifiers for species recognition in water ecosystems. Despite satisfactory nominal performances, a significant challenge arises from Dataset Shift, which causes performances to drop during deployment. In our study, we integrate the ZooLake dataset with manually-annotated images from 10 independent days of deployment, serving as test cells to benchmark Out-Of-Dataset (OOD) performances. Our analysis reveals instances where classifiers, initially performing well in In-Dataset conditions, encounter notable failures in practical scenarios. For example, a MobileNet with a 92% nominal test accuracy shows a 77% OOD accuracy. We systematically investigate conditions leading to OOD performance drops and propose a preemptive assessment method to identify potential pitfalls when classifying new data, and pinpoint features in OOD images that adversely impact classification. We present a three-step pipeline: (i) identifying OOD degradation compared to nominal test performance, (ii) conducting a diagnostic analysis of degradation causes, and (iii) providing solutions. We find that ensembles of BEiT vision transformers, with targeted augmentations addressing OOD robustness, geometric ensembling, and rotation-based test-time augmentation, constitute the most robust model, which we call BEsT model. It achieves an 83% OOD accuracy, with errors concentrated on container classes. Moreover, it exhibits lower sensitivity to dataset shift, and reproduces well the plankton abundances. Our proposed pipeline is applicable to generic plankton classifiers, contingent on the availability of suitable test cells. By identifying critical shortcomings and offering practical procedures to fortify models against dataset shift, our study contributes to the development of more reliable plankton classification technologies.


Interpretable Solutions for Breast Cancer Diagnosis with Grammatical Evolution and Data Augmentation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Medical imaging diagnosis increasingly relies on Machine Learning (ML) models. This is a task that is often hampered by severely imbalanced datasets, where positive cases can be quite rare. Their use is further compromised by their limited interpretability, which is becoming increasingly important. While post-hoc interpretability techniques such as SHAP and LIME have been used with some success on so-called black box models, the use of inherently understandable models makes such endeavors more fruitful. This paper addresses these issues by demonstrating how a relatively new synthetic data generation technique, STEM, can be used to produce data to train models produced by Grammatical Evolution (GE) that are inherently understandable. STEM is a recently introduced combination of the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE), Edited Nearest Neighbour (ENN), and Mixup; it has previously been successfully used to tackle both between class and within class imbalance issues. We test our technique on the Digital Database for Screening Mammography (DDSM) and the Wisconsin Breast Cancer (WBC) datasets and compare Area Under the Curve (AUC) results with an ensemble of the top three performing classifiers from a set of eight standard ML classifiers with varying degrees of interpretability. We demonstrate that the GE-derived models present the best AUC while still maintaining interpretable solutions.


Enhanced Labeling Technique for Reddit Text and Fine-Tuned Longformer Models for Classifying Depression Severity in English and Luganda

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Depression is a global burden and one of the most challenging mental health conditions to control. Experts can detect its severity early using the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) questionnaire, administer appropriate medication to patients, and impede its progression. Due to the fear of potential stigmatization, many patients turn to social media platforms like Reddit for advice and assistance at various stages of their journey. This research extracts text from Reddit to facilitate the diagnostic process. It employs a proposed labeling approach to categorize the text and subsequently fine-tunes the Longformer model. The model's performance is compared against baseline models, including Naive Bayes, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and Gradient Boosting. Our findings reveal that the Longformer model outperforms the baseline models in both English (48%) and Luganda (45%) languages on a custom-made dataset.


A Modular Approach to Automatic Cyber Threat Attribution using Opinion Pools

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cyber threat attribution can play an important role in increasing resilience against digital threats. Recent research focuses on automating the threat attribution process and on integrating it with other efforts, such as threat hunting. To support increasing automation of the cyber threat attribution process, this paper proposes a modular architecture as an alternative to current monolithic automated approaches. The modular architecture can utilize opinion pools to combine the output of concrete attributors. The proposed solution increases the tractability of the threat attribution problem and offers increased usability and interpretability, as opposed to monolithic alternatives. In addition, a Pairing Aggregator is proposed as an aggregation method that forms pairs of attributors based on distinct features to produce intermediary results before finally producing a single Probability Mass Function (PMF) as output. The Pairing Aggregator sequentially applies both the logarithmic opinion pool and the linear opinion pool. An experimental validation suggests that the modular approach does not result in decreased performance and can even enhance precision and recall compared to monolithic alternatives. The results also suggest that the Pairing Aggregator can improve precision over the linear and logarithmic opinion pools. Furthermore, the improved k-accuracy in the experiment suggests that forensic experts can leverage the resulting PMF during their manual attribution processes to enhance their efficiency.


Novel application of Relief Algorithm in cascaded artificial neural network to predict wind speed for wind power resource assessment in India

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wind power generated by wind has non-schedule nature due to stochastic nature of meteorological variable. Hence energy business and control of wind power generation requires prediction of wind speed (WS) from few seconds to different time steps in advance. To deal with prediction shortcomings, various WS prediction methods have been used. Predictive data mining offers variety of methods for WS predictions where artificial neural network (ANN) is one of the reliable and accurate methods. It is observed from the result of this study that ANN gives better accuracy in comparison conventional model. The accuracy of WS prediction models is found to be dependent on input parameters and architecture type algorithms utilized. So the selection of most relevant input parameters is important research area in WS predicton field. The objective of the paper is twofold: first extensive review of ANN for wind power and WS prediction is carried out. Discussion and analysis of feature selection using Relief Algorithm (RA) in WS prediction are considered for different Indian sites. RA identify atmospheric pressure, solar radiation and relative humidity are relevant input variables. Based on relevant input variables Cascade ANN model is developed and prediction accuracy is evaluated. It is found that root mean square error (RMSE) for comparison between predicted and measured WS for training and testing wind speed are found to be 1.44 m/s and 1.49 m/s respectively. The developed cascade ANN model can be used to predict wind speed for sites where there are not WS measuring instruments are installed in India.


DNA Sequence Classification with Compressors

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent studies in DNA sequence classification have leveraged sophisticated machine learning techniques, achieving notable accuracy in categorizing complex genomic data. Among these, methods such as k-mer counting have proven effective in distinguishing sequences from varied species like chimpanzees, dogs, and humans, becoming a staple in contemporary genomic research. However, these approaches often demand extensive computational resources, posing a challenge in terms of scalability and efficiency. Addressing this issue, our study introduces a novel adaptation of Jiang et al.'s compressor-based, parameter-free classification method, specifically tailored for DNA sequence analysis. This innovative approach utilizes a variety of compression algorithms, such as Gzip, Brotli, and LZMA, to efficiently process and classify genomic sequences. Not only does this method align with the current state-of-the-art in terms of accuracy, but it also offers a more resource-efficient alternative to traditional machine learning methods. Our comprehensive evaluation demonstrates the proposed method's effectiveness in accurately classifying DNA sequences from multiple species. We present a detailed analysis of the performance of each algorithm used, highlighting the strengths and limitations of our approach in various genomic contexts. Furthermore, we discuss the broader implications of our findings for bioinformatics, particularly in genomic data processing and analysis. The results of our study pave the way for more efficient and scalable DNA sequence classification methods, offering significant potential for advancements in genomic research and applications.


Evaluating the Determinants of Mode Choice Using Statistical and Machine Learning Techniques in the Indian Megacity of Bengaluru

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The decision making involved behind the mode choice is critical for transportation planning. While statistical learning techniques like discrete choice models have been used traditionally, machine learning (ML) models have gained traction recently among the transportation planners due to their higher predictive performance. However, the black box nature of ML models pose significant interpretability challenges, limiting their practical application in decision and policy making. This study utilised a dataset of $1350$ households belonging to low and low-middle income bracket in the city of Bengaluru to investigate mode choice decision making behaviour using Multinomial logit model and ML classifiers like decision trees, random forests, extreme gradient boosting and support vector machines. In terms of accuracy, random forest model performed the best ($0.788$ on training data and $0.605$ on testing data) compared to all the other models. This research has adopted modern interpretability techniques like feature importance and individual conditional expectation plots to explain the decision making behaviour using ML models. A higher travel costs significantly reduce the predicted probability of bus usage compared to other modes (a $0.66\%$ and $0.34\%$ reduction using Random Forests and XGBoost model for $10\%$ increase in travel cost). However, reducing travel time by $10\%$ increases the preference for the metro ($0.16\%$ in Random Forests and 0.42% in XGBoost). This research augments the ongoing research on mode choice analysis using machine learning techniques, which would help in improving the understanding of the performance of these models with real-world data in terms of both accuracy and interpretability.