The structure of data organization is widely recognized as having a substantial influence on the efficacy of machine learning algorithms, particularly in binary classification tasks. Our research provides a theoretical framework suggesting that the maximum potential of binary classifiers on a given dataset is primarily constrained by the inherent qualities of the data. Through both theoretical reasoning and empirical examination, we employed standard objective functions, evaluative metrics, and binary classifiers to arrive at two principal conclusions. Firstly, we show that the theoretical upper bound of binary classification performance on actual datasets can be theoretically attained. This upper boundary represents a calculable equilibrium between the learning loss and the metric of evaluation. Secondly, we have computed the precise upper bounds for three commonly used evaluation metrics, uncovering a fundamental uniformity with our overarching thesis: the upper bound is intricately linked to the dataset's characteristics, independent of the classifier in use. Additionally, our subsequent analysis uncovers a detailed relationship between the upper limit of performance and the level of class overlap within the binary classification data. This relationship is instrumental for pinpointing the most effective feature subsets for use in feature engineering.

Kernel methods are applied to many problems in pattern recognition, including subspace clustering (SC). That way, nonlinear problems in the input data space become linear in mapped high-dimensional feature space. Thereby, computationally tractable nonlinear algorithms are enabled through implicit mapping by the virtue of kernel trick. However, kernelization of linear algorithms is possible only if square of the Froebenious norm of the error term is used in related optimization problem. That, however, implies normal distribution of the error. That is not appropriate for non-Gaussian errors such as gross sparse corruptions that are modeled by -norm. Herein, to the best of our knowledge, we propose for the first time robust kernel sparse SC (RKSSC) algorithm for data with gross sparse corruptions. The concept, in principle, can be applied to other SC algorithms to achieve robustness to the presence of such type of corruption. We validated proposed approach on two well-known datasets with linear robust SSC algorithm as a baseline model. According to Wilcoxon test, clustering performance obtained by the RKSSC algorithm is statistically significantly better than corresponding performance obtained by the robust SSC algorithm. MATLAB code of proposed RKSSC algorithm is posted on https://github.com/ikopriva/RKSSC.

Yield curves are used for a wide variety of tasks in actuarial science and finance for deriving the present value of future cashflows within valuations that apply a market consistent approach. A market consistent approach is required by modern solvency regulations, such as Solvency II, while recently updated accounting standards, such as the recently introduced IFRS 17, require the use of credit and liquidity adjusted yield curves for discounting liabilities, including both life and non-life insurance liabilities. Insurers, and other entities, that report on their liabilities on a discounted basis are exposed to the risk of changes in the interest rates in their markets, which translate directly into changes in the solvency of these entities. Therefore, managing this risk of adverse changes in yield curves - which we refer to as interest rate risk in what follows - is an important task within actuarial work, which is usually considered in the context of corresponding changes in the asset portfolio backing these liabilities, changes in the value of which may act as an offset. This process is, therefore, usually referred to as Asset-Liability Management (ALM).

The growing popularity of Android requires malware detection systems that can keep up with the pace of new software being released. According to a recent study, a new piece of malware appears online every 12 seconds. To address this, we treat Android malware detection as a streaming data problem and explore the use of active online learning as a means of mitigating the problem of labelling applications in a timely and cost-effective manner. Our resulting framework achieves accuracies of up to 96\%, requires as little of 24\% of the training data to be labelled, and compensates for concept drift that occurs between the release and labelling of an application. We also consider the broader practicalities of online learning within Android malware detection, and systematically explore the trade-offs between using different static, dynamic and hybrid feature sets to classify malware.

This paper uses topological data analysis (TDA) tools and introduces a data-driven clustering-based stock selection strategy tailored for sparse portfolio construction. Our asset selection strategy exploits the topological features of stock price movements to select a subset of topologically similar (different) assets for a sparse index tracking (Markowitz) portfolio. We introduce new distance measures, which serve as an input to the clustering algorithm, on the space of persistence diagrams and landscapes that consider the time component of a time series. We conduct an empirical analysis on the S\&P index from 2009 to 2020, including a study on the COVID-19 data to validate the robustness of our methodology. Our strategy to integrate TDA with the clustering algorithm significantly enhanced the performance of sparse portfolios across various performance measures in diverse market scenarios.

We developed an artificial intelligence approach to predict the transfer fee of a football player. This model can help clubs make better decisions about which players to buy and sell, which can lead to improved performance and increased club budgets. Having collected data on player performance, transfer fees, and other factors that might affect a player's value, we then used this data to train a machine learning model that can accurately predict a player's impact on the game. We further passed the obtained results as one of the features to the predictor of transfer fees. The model can help clubs identify players who are undervalued and who could be sold for a profit. It can also help clubs avoid overpaying for players. We believe that our model can be a valuable tool for football clubs. It can help them make better decisions about player recruitment and transfers.

Training an effective Machine learning (ML) model is an iterative process that requires effort in multiple dimensions. Vertically, a single pipeline typically includes an initial ETL (Extract, Transform, Load) of raw datasets, a model training stage, and an evaluation stage where the practitioners obtain statistics of the model performance. Horizontally, many such pipelines may be required to find the best model within a search space of model configurations. Many practitioners resort to maintaining logs manually and writing simple glue code to automate the workflow. However, carrying out this process on the cloud is not a trivial task in terms of resource provisioning, data management, and bookkeeping of job histories to make sure the results are reproducible. We propose an end-to-end cloud-based machine learning platform, Accelerated Cloud for AI (ACAI), to help improve the productivity of ML practitioners. ACAI achieves this goal by enabling cloud-based storage of indexed, labeled, and searchable data, as well as automatic resource provisioning, job scheduling, and experiment tracking. Specifically, ACAI provides practitioners (1) a data lake for storing versioned datasets and their corresponding metadata, and (2) an execution engine for executing ML jobs on the cloud with automatic resource provisioning (auto-provision), logging and provenance tracking. To evaluate ACAI, we test the efficacy of our auto-provisioner on the MNIST handwritten digit classification task, and we study the usability of our system using experiments and interviews. We show that our auto-provisioner produces a 1.7x speed-up and 39% cost reduction, and our system reduces experiment time for ML scientists by 20% on typical ML use cases.

Sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) techniques have been recently proposed for dealing with simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods. They are devoted to learning the posterior from adaptively proposed simulations using neural network-based conditional density estimators. As a SNPE technique, the automatic posterior transformation (APT) method proposed by Greenberg et al. (2019) performs notably and scales to high dimensional data. However, the APT method bears the computation of an expectation of the logarithm of an intractable normalizing constant, i.e., a nested expectation. Although atomic APT was proposed to solve this by discretizing the normalizing constant, it remains challenging to analyze the convergence of learning. In this paper, we propose a nested APT method to estimate the involved nested expectation instead. This facilitates establishing the convergence analysis. Since the nested estimators for the loss function and its gradient are biased, we make use of unbiased multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimators for debiasing. To further reduce the excessive variance of the unbiased estimators, this paper also develops some truncated MLMC estimators by taking account of the trade-off between the bias and the average cost. Numerical experiments for approximating complex posteriors with multimodal in moderate dimensions are provided.

Weight quantization is an effective technique to compress deep neural networks for their deployment on edge devices with limited resources. Traditional loss-aware quantization methods commonly use the quantized gradient to replace the full-precision gradient. However, we discover that the gradient error will lead to an unexpected zig-zagging-like issue in the gradient descent learning procedures, where the gradient directions rapidly oscillate or zig-zag, and such issue seriously slows down the model convergence. Accordingly, this paper proposes a one-step forward and backtrack way for loss-aware quantization to get more accurate and stable gradient direction to defy this issue. During the gradient descent learning, a one-step forward search is designed to find the trial gradient of the next-step, which is adopted to adjust the gradient of current step towards the direction of fast convergence. After that, we backtrack the current step to update the full-precision and quantized weights through the current-step gradient and the trial gradient. A series of theoretical analysis and experiments on benchmark deep models have demonstrated the effectiveness and competitiveness of the proposed method, and our method especially outperforms others on the convergence performance.

Training machine learning and statistical models often involves optimizing a data-driven risk criterion. The risk is usually computed with respect to the empirical data distribution, but this may result in poor and unstable out-of-sample performance due to distributional uncertainty. In the spirit of distributionally robust optimization, we propose a novel robust criterion by combining insights from Bayesian nonparametric (i.e., Dirichlet Process) theory and recent decision-theoretic models of smooth ambiguity-averse preferences. First, we highlight novel connections with standard regularized empirical risk minimization techniques, among which Ridge and LASSO regressions. Then, we theoretically demonstrate the existence of favorable finite-sample and asymptotic statistical guarantees on the performance of the robust optimization procedure. For practical implementation, we propose and study tractable approximations of the criterion based on well-known Dirichlet Process representations. We also show that the smoothness of the criterion naturally leads to standard gradient-based numerical optimization. Finally, we provide insights into the workings of our method by applying it to high-dimensional sparse linear regression and robust location parameter estimation tasks.