This paper addresses intervention-based causal representation learning (CRL) under a general nonparametric latent causal model and an unknown transformation that maps the latent variables to the observed variables. Linear and general transformations are investigated. The paper addresses both the \emph{identifiability} and \emph{achievability} aspects. Identifiability refers to determining algorithm-agnostic conditions that ensure recovering the true latent causal variables and the latent causal graph underlying them. Achievability refers to the algorithmic aspects and addresses designing algorithms that achieve identifiability guarantees. By drawing novel connections between \emph{score functions} (i.e., the gradients of the logarithm of density functions) and CRL, this paper designs a \emph{score-based class of algorithms} that ensures both identifiability and achievability. First, the paper focuses on \emph{linear} transformations and shows that one stochastic hard intervention per node suffices to guarantee identifiability. It also provides partial identifiability guarantees for soft interventions, including identifiability up to ancestors for general causal models and perfect latent graph recovery for sufficiently non-linear causal models. Secondly, it focuses on \emph{general} transformations and shows that two stochastic hard interventions per node suffice for identifiability. Notably, one does \emph{not} need to know which pair of interventional environments have the same node intervened.

Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in Wi-Fi-based gesture recognition. However, existing works have predominantly focused on closed-set paradigms, where all testing gestures are predefined during training. This poses a significant challenge in real-world applications, as unseen gestures might be misclassified as known classes during testing. To address this issue, we propose WiOpen, a robust Wi-Fi-based Open-Set Gesture Recognition (OSGR) framework. Implementing OSGR requires addressing challenges caused by the unique uncertainty in Wi-Fi sensing. This uncertainty, resulting from noise and domains, leads to widely scattered and irregular data distributions in collected Wi-Fi sensing data. Consequently, data ambiguity between classes and challenges in defining appropriate decision boundaries to identify unknowns arise. To tackle these challenges, WiOpen adopts a two-fold approach to eliminate uncertainty and define precise decision boundaries. Initially, it addresses uncertainty induced by noise during data preprocessing by utilizing the CSI ratio. Next, it designs the OSGR network based on an uncertainty quantification method. Throughout the learning process, this network effectively mitigates uncertainty stemming from domains. Ultimately, the network leverages relationships among samples' neighbors to dynamically define open-set decision boundaries, successfully realizing OSGR. Comprehensive experiments on publicly accessible datasets confirm WiOpen's effectiveness. Notably, WiOpen also demonstrates superiority in cross-domain tasks when compared to state-of-the-art approaches.

Signal quality assessment (SQA) is required for monitoring the reliability of data acquisition systems, especially in AI-driven Predictive Maintenance (PMx) application contexts. SQA is vital for addressing "silent failures" of data acquisition hardware and software, which when unnoticed, misinform the users of data, creating the risk for incorrect decisions with unintended or even catastrophic consequences. We have developed an open-source software implementation of signal quality indices (SQIs) for the analysis of time-series data. We codify a range of SQIs, demonstrate them using established benchmark data, and show that they can be effective for signal quality assessment. We also study alternative approaches to denoising time-series data in an attempt to improve the quality of the already degraded signal, and evaluate them empirically on relevant real-world data. To our knowledge, our software toolkit is the first to provide an open source implementation of a broad range of signal quality assessment and improvement techniques validated on publicly available benchmark data for ease of reproducibility. The generality of our framework can be easily extended to assessing reliability of arbitrary time-series measurements in complex systems, especially when morphological patterns of the waveform shapes and signal periodicity are of key interest in downstream analyses.

In practice, it is observed that transformer-based models can learn concepts in context in the inference stage. While existing literature, e.g., \citet{zhang2023trained,huang2023context}, provide theoretical explanations on this in-context learning ability, they assume the input $x_i$ and the output $y_i$ for each sample are embedded in the same token (i.e., structured data). However, in reality, they are presented in two tokens (i.e., unstructured data \cite{wibisono2023role}). In this case, this paper conducts experiments in linear regression tasks to study the benefits of the architecture of transformers and provides some corresponding theoretical intuitions to explain why the transformer can learn from unstructured data. We study the exact components in a transformer that facilitate the in-context learning. In particular, we observe that (1) a transformer with two layers of softmax (self-)attentions with look-ahead attention mask can learn from the prompt if $y_i$ is in the token next to $x_i$ for each example; (2) positional encoding can further improve the performance; and (3) multi-head attention with a high input embedding dimension has a better prediction performance than single-head attention.

Predictive multiplicity refers to the phenomenon in which classification tasks may admit multiple competing models that achieve almost-equally-optimal performance, yet generate conflicting outputs for individual samples. This presents significant concerns, as it can potentially result in systemic exclusion, inexplicable discrimination, and unfairness in practical applications. Measuring and mitigating predictive multiplicity, however, is computationally challenging due to the need to explore all such almost-equally-optimal models, known as the Rashomon set, in potentially huge hypothesis spaces. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework that utilizes dropout techniques for exploring models in the Rashomon set. We provide rigorous theoretical derivations to connect the dropout parameters to properties of the Rashomon set, and empirically evaluate our framework through extensive experimentation. Numerical results show that our technique consistently outperforms baselines in terms of the effectiveness of predictive multiplicity metric estimation, with runtime speedup up to $20\times \sim 5000\times$. With efficient Rashomon set exploration and metric estimation, mitigation of predictive multiplicity is then achieved through dropout ensemble and model selection.

One well motivated explanation method for classifiers leverages counterfactuals which are hypothetical events identical to real observations in all aspects except for one categorical feature. Constructing such counterfactual poses specific challenges for texts, however, as some attribute values may not necessarily align with plausible real-world events. In this paper we propose a simple method for generating counterfactuals by intervening in the space of text representations which bypasses this limitation. We argue that our interventions are minimally disruptive and that they are theoretically sound as they align with counterfactuals as defined in Pearl's causal inference framework. To validate our method, we first conduct experiments on a synthetic dataset of counterfactuals, allowing for a direct comparison between classifier predictions based on ground truth counterfactuals (obtained through explicit text interventions) and our counterfactuals, derived through interventions in the representation space. Second, we study a real world scenario where our counterfactuals can be leveraged both for explaining a classifier and for bias mitigation.

This study explores the usefulness of machine learning classifiers for modeling freight mode choice. We investigate eight commonly used machine learning classifiers, namely Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural Network, K-Nearest Neighbors, Classification and Regression Tree, Random Forest, Boosting and Bagging, along with the classical Multinomial Logit model. US 2012 Commodity Flow Survey data are used as the primary data source; we augment it with spatial attributes from secondary data sources. The performance of the classifiers is compared based on prediction accuracy results. The current research also examines the role of sample size and training-testing data split ratios on the predictive ability of the various approaches. In addition, the importance of variables is estimated to determine how the variables influence freight mode choice. The results show that the tree-based ensemble classifiers perform the best. Specifically, Random Forest produces the most accurate predictions, closely followed by Boosting and Bagging. With regard to variable importance, shipment characteristics, such as shipment distance, industry classification of the shipper and shipment size, are the most significant factors for freight mode choice decisions.

Unlabeled data is a key component of modern machine learning. In general, the role of unlabeled data is to impose a form of smoothness, usually from the similarity information encoded in a base kernel, such as the $\epsilon$-neighbor kernel or the adjacency matrix of a graph. This work revisits the classical idea of spectrally transformed kernel regression (STKR), and provides a new class of general and scalable STKR estimators able to leverage unlabeled data. Intuitively, via spectral transformation, STKR exploits the data distribution for which unlabeled data can provide additional information. First, we show that STKR is a principled and general approach, by characterizing a universal type of "target smoothness", and proving that any sufficiently smooth function can be learned by STKR. Second, we provide scalable STKR implementations for the inductive setting and a general transformation function, while prior work is mostly limited to the transductive setting. Third, we derive statistical guarantees for two scenarios: STKR with a known polynomial transformation, and STKR with kernel PCA when the transformation is unknown. Overall, we believe that this work helps deepen our understanding of how to work with unlabeled data, and its generality makes it easier to inspire new methods.

We research into the clinical, biochemical and neuroimaging factors associated with the outcome of stroke patients to generate a predictive model using machine learning techniques for prediction of mortality and morbidity 3 months after admission. The dataset consisted of patients with ischemic stroke (IS) and non-traumatic intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) admitted to Stroke Unit of a European Tertiary Hospital prospectively registered. We identified the main variables for machine learning Random Forest (RF), generating a predictive model that can estimate patient mortality/morbidity. In conclusion, machine learning algorithms RF can be effectively used in stroke patients for long-term outcome prediction of mortality and morbidity.

Quantifying the causal relationships from purely observational data between variables in a system is a problem that has attracted great attention in the fields of statistics and machine learning. Full knowledge of the causal relations allows predicting the outcome of direct manipulations on the system, which can generally only be known from interventional data obtained by performing experiments such as randomized controlled trials (Eberhardt and Scheines, 2007). Predicting the effect of such manipulations without the need of costly or infeasible experiments is of great practical relevance, specifically in the fields of computational biology (Sachs et al., 2005), medicine (Richens et al., 2020) or AI (Schölkopf, 2022), since a central question concerns how a complex system will react to some treatment or outside influence of the user. Pearl's rules of do-calculus (Pearl, 2000) allow computing the intervention distributions resulting from these external manipulations from the joint distribution of the set of random variables together with a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG). The DAG represents the qualitative causal relationships among the variables; each node in the graph represents a variable and a directed edge indicates a direct causal effect. Probabilistic models that are based on such DAGs, commonly called causal Bayesian Networks (BNs), provide conventional grounds for probabilistic causal inference, due to their compact representation of the joint distribution and their intuitive graphical description of the causal structure.