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 Statistical Learning


Target inductive methods for zero-shot regression

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This research arises from the need to predict the amount of air pollutants in meteorological stations. Air pollution depends on the location of the stations (weather conditions and activities in the surroundings). Frequently, the surrounding information is not considered in the learning process. This information is known beforehand in the absence of unobserved weather conditions and remains constant for the same station. Considering the surrounding information as side information facilitates the generalization for predicting pollutants in new stations, leading to a zero-shot regression scenario. Available methods in zero-shot typically lean towards classification, and are not easily extensible to regression. This paper proposes two zero-shot methods for regression. The first method is a similarity based approach that learns models from features and aggregates them using side information. However, potential knowledge of the feature models may be lost in the aggregation. The second method overcomes this drawback by replacing the aggregation procedure and learning the correspondence between side information and feature-induced models, instead. Both proposals are compared with a baseline procedure using artificial datasets, UCI repository communities and crime datasets, and the pollutants. Both approaches outperform the baseline method, but the parameter learning approach manifests its superiority over the similarity based method.


Beyond the Request: Harnessing HTTP Response Headers for Cross-Browser Web Tracker Classification in an Imbalanced Setting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The World Wide Web's connectivity is greatly attributed to the HTTP protocol, with HTTP messages offering informative header fields that appeal to disciplines like web security and privacy, especially concerning web tracking. Despite existing research employing HTTP/S request messages to identify web trackers, HTTP/S response headers are often overlooked. This study endeavors to design effective machine learning classifiers for web tracker detection using HTTP/S response headers. Data from the Chrome, Firefox, and Brave browsers, obtained through the traffic monitoring browser extension T.EX, serves as our data set. Eleven supervised models were trained on Chrome data and tested across all browsers. The results demonstrated high accuracy, F1-score, precision, recall, and minimal log-loss error for Chrome and Firefox, but subpar performance on Brave, potentially due to its distinct data distribution and feature set. The research suggests that these classifiers are viable for detecting web trackers in Chrome and Firefox. However, real-world application testing remains pending, and the distinction between tracker types and broader label sources could be explored in future studies.


Flexible Variational Information Bottleneck: Achieving Diverse Compression with a Single Training

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Information Bottleneck (IB) is a widely used framework that enables the extraction of information related to a target random variable from a source random variable. In the objective function, IB controls the trade-off between data compression and predictiveness through the Lagrange multiplier $\beta$. Traditionally, to find the trade-off to be learned, IB requires a search for $\beta$ through multiple training cycles, which is computationally expensive. In this study, we introduce Flexible Variational Information Bottleneck (FVIB), an innovative framework for classification task that can obtain optimal models for all values of $\beta$ with single, computationally efficient training. We theoretically demonstrate that across all values of reasonable $\beta$, FVIB can simultaneously maximize an approximation of the objective function for Variational Information Bottleneck (VIB), the conventional IB method. Then we empirically show that FVIB can learn the VIB objective as effectively as VIB. Furthermore, in terms of calibration performance, FVIB outperforms other IB and calibration methods by enabling continuous optimization of $\beta$. Our codes are available at https://github.com/sotakudo/fvib.


Comparative Evaluation of Weather Forecasting using Machine Learning Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Gaining a deeper understanding of weather and being able to predict its future conduct have always been considered important endeavors for the growth of our society. This research paper explores the advancements in understanding and predicting nature's behavior, particularly in the context of weather forecasting, through the application of machine learning algorithms. By leveraging the power of machine learning, data mining, and data analysis techniques, significant progress has been made in this field. This study focuses on analyzing the contributions of various machine learning algorithms in predicting precipitation and temperature patterns using a 20-year dataset from a single weather station in Dhaka city. Algorithms such as Gradient Boosting, AdaBoosting, Artificial Neural Network, Stacking Random Forest, Stacking Neural Network, and Stacking KNN are evaluated and compared based on their performance metrics, including Confusion matrix measurements. The findings highlight remarkable achievements and provide valuable insights into their performances and features correlation.


Few-Shot Class-Incremental Learning with Prior Knowledge

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

To tackle the issues of catastrophic forgetting and overfitting in few-shot class-incremental learning (FSCIL), previous work has primarily concentrated on preserving the memory of old knowledge during the incremental phase. The role of pre-trained model in shaping the effectiveness of incremental learning is frequently underestimated in these studies. Therefore, to enhance the generalization ability of the pre-trained model, we propose Learning with Prior Knowledge (LwPK) by introducing nearly free prior knowledge from a few unlabeled data of subsequent incremental classes. We cluster unlabeled incremental class samples to produce pseudo-labels, then jointly train these with labeled base class samples, effectively allocating embedding space for both old and new class data. Experimental results indicate that LwPK effectively enhances the model resilience against catastrophic forgetting, with theoretical analysis based on empirical risk minimization and class distance measurement corroborating its operational principles. The source code of LwPK is publicly available at: \url{https://github.com/StevenJ308/LwPK}.


Truncated Non-Uniform Quantization for Distributed SGD

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

To address the communication bottleneck challenge in distributed learning, our work introduces a novel two-stage quantization strategy designed to enhance the communication efficiency of distributed Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD). The proposed method initially employs truncation to mitigate the impact of long-tail noise, followed by a non-uniform quantization of the post-truncation gradients based on their statistical characteristics. We provide a comprehensive convergence analysis of the quantized distributed SGD, establishing theoretical guarantees for its performance. Furthermore, by minimizing the convergence error, we derive optimal closed-form solutions for the truncation threshold and non-uniform quantization levels under given communication constraints. Both theoretical insights and extensive experimental evaluations demonstrate that our proposed algorithm outperforms existing quantization schemes, striking a superior balance between communication efficiency and convergence performance.


Limited Memory Online Gradient Descent for Kernelized Pairwise Learning with Dynamic Averaging

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Pairwise learning, an important domain within machine learning, addresses loss functions defined on pairs of training examples, including those in metric learning and AUC maximization. Acknowledging the quadratic growth in computation complexity accompanying pairwise loss as the sample size grows, researchers have turned to online gradient descent (OGD) methods for enhanced scalability. Recently, an OGD algorithm emerged, employing gradient computation involving prior and most recent examples, a step that effectively reduces algorithmic complexity to $O(T)$, with $T$ being the number of received examples. This approach, however, confines itself to linear models while assuming the independence of example arrivals. We introduce a lightweight OGD algorithm that does not require the independence of examples and generalizes to kernel pairwise learning. Our algorithm builds the gradient based on a random example and a moving average representing the past data, which results in a sub-linear regret bound with a complexity of $O(T)$. Furthermore, through the integration of $O(\sqrt{T}{\log{T}})$ random Fourier features, the complexity of kernel calculations is effectively minimized. Several experiments with real-world datasets show that the proposed technique outperforms kernel and linear algorithms in offline and online scenarios.


Low-Tubal-Rank Tensor Recovery via Factorized Gradient Descent

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper considers the problem of recovering a tensor with an underlying low-tubal-rank structure from a small number of corrupted linear measurements. Traditional approaches tackling such a problem require the computation of tensor Singular Value Decomposition (t-SVD), that is a computationally intensive process, rendering them impractical for dealing with large-scale tensors. Aim to address this challenge, we propose an efficient and effective low-tubal-rank tensor recovery method based on a factorization procedure akin to the Burer-Monteiro (BM) method. Precisely, our fundamental approach involves decomposing a large tensor into two smaller factor tensors, followed by solving the problem through factorized gradient descent (FGD). This strategy eliminates the need for t-SVD computation, thereby reducing computational costs and storage requirements. We provide rigorous theoretical analysis to ensure the convergence of FGD under both noise-free and noisy situations. Additionally, it is worth noting that our method does not require the precise estimation of the tensor tubal-rank. Even in cases where the tubal-rank is slightly overestimated, our approach continues to demonstrate robust performance. A series of experiments have been carried out to demonstrate that, as compared to other popular ones, our approach exhibits superior performance in multiple scenarios, in terms of the faster computational speed and the smaller convergence error.


The Bigger the Better? Rethinking the Effective Model Scale in Long-term Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) represents a critical frontier in time series analysis, distinguished by its focus on extensive input sequences, in contrast to the constrained lengths typical of traditional approaches. While longer sequences inherently convey richer information, potentially enhancing predictive precision, prevailing techniques often respond by escalating model complexity. These intricate models can inflate into millions of parameters, incorporating parameter-intensive elements like positional encodings, feed-forward networks and self-attention mechanisms. This complexity, however, leads to prohibitive model scale, particularly given the time series data's semantic simplicity. Motivated by the pursuit of parsimony, our research employs conditional correlation and auto-correlation as investigative tools, revealing significant redundancies within the input data. Leveraging these insights, we introduce the HDformer, a lightweight Transformer variant enhanced with hierarchical decomposition. This novel architecture not only inverts the prevailing trend toward model expansion but also accomplishes precise forecasting with drastically fewer computations and parameters. Remarkably, HDformer outperforms existing state-of-the-art LTSF models, while requiring over 99\% fewer parameters. Through this work, we advocate a paradigm shift in LTSF, emphasizing the importance to tailor the model to the inherent dynamics of time series data-a timely reminder that in the realm of LTSF, bigger is not invariably better.


Do We Really Even Need Data?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more accessible, and scientists face new obstacles to data collection (e.g. rising costs, declining survey response rates), researchers increasingly use predictions from pre-trained algorithms as outcome variables. Though appealing for financial and logistical reasons, using standard tools for inference can misrepresent the association between independent variables and the outcome of interest when the true, unobserved outcome is replaced by a predicted value. In this paper, we characterize the statistical challenges inherent to this so-called ``inference with predicted data'' problem and elucidate three potential sources of error: (i) the relationship between predicted outcomes and their true, unobserved counterparts, (ii) robustness of the machine learning model to resampling or uncertainty about the training data, and (iii) appropriately propagating not just bias but also uncertainty from predictions into the ultimate inference procedure.