Modeling time series data remains a pervasive issue as the temporal dimension is inherent to numerous domains. Despite significant strides in time series forecasting, high noise-to-signal ratio, non-normality, non-stationarity, and lack of data continue challenging practitioners. In response, we leverage a simple representation augmentation technique to overcome these challenges. Our augmented representation acts as a statistical-space prior encoded at each time step. In response, we name our method Statistical-space Augmented Representation (SSAR). The underlying high-dimensional data-generating process inspires our representation augmentation. We rigorously examine the empirical generalization performance on two data sets with two downstream temporal learning algorithms. Our approach significantly beats all five up-to-date baselines. Moreover, the highly modular nature of our approach can easily be applied to various settings. Lastly, fully-fledged theoretical perspectives are available throughout the writing for a clear and rigorous understanding.

Earthquakes are among the most immediate and deadly natural disasters that humans face. Accurately forecasting the extent of earthquake damage and assessing potential risks can be instrumental in saving numerous lives. In this study, we developed linear regression models capable of predicting seismic intensity distributions based on earthquake parameters: location, depth, and magnitude. Because it is completely data-driven, it can predict intensity distributions without geographical information. The dataset comprises seismic intensity data from earthquakes that occurred in the vicinity of Japan between 1997 and 2020, specifically containing 1,857 instances of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.0 or greater, sourced from the Japan Meteorological Agency. We trained both regression and classification models and combined them to take advantage of both to create a hybrid model. The proposed model outperformed commonly used Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) in terms of the correlation coefficient, F1 score, and MCC. Furthermore, the proposed model can predict even abnormal seismic intensity distributions, a task at conventional GMPEs often struggle.

In the last 5 years, the availability of large audio datasets in African countries has opened unlimited opportunities to build machine intelligence (MI) technologies that are closer to the people and speak, learn, understand, and do businesses in local languages, including for those who cannot read and write. Unfortunately, these audio datasets are not fully exploited by current MI tools, leaving several Africans out of MI business opportunities. Additionally, many state-of-the-art MI models are not culture-aware, and the ethics of their adoption indexes are questionable. The lack thereof is a major drawback in many applications in Africa. This paper summarizes recent developments in machine intelligence in Africa from a multi-layer multiscale and culture-aware ethics perspective, showcasing MI use cases in 54 African countries through 400 articles on MI research, industry, government actions, as well as uses in art, music, the informal economy, and small businesses in Africa. The survey also opens discussions on the reliability of MI rankings and indexes in the African continent as well as algorithmic definitions of unclear terms used in MI.

Online customer data provides valuable information for product design and marketing research, as it can reveal the preferences of customers. However, analyzing these data using artificial intelligence (AI) for data-driven design is a challenging task due to potential concealed patterns. Moreover, in these research areas, most studies are only limited to finding customers' needs. In this study, we propose a game theory machine learning (ML) method that extracts comprehensive design implications for product development. The method first uses a genetic algorithm to select, rank, and combine product features that can maximize customer satisfaction based on online ratings. Then, we use SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), a game theory method that assigns a value to each feature based on its contribution to the prediction, to provide a guideline for assessing the importance of each feature for the total satisfaction. We apply our method to a real-world dataset of laptops from Kaggle, and derive design implications based on the results. Our approach tackles a major challenge in the field of multi-criteria decision making and can help product designers and marketers, to understand customer preferences better with less data and effort. The proposed method outperforms benchmark methods in terms of relevant performance metrics.

In-Context Learning (ICL) empowers Large Language Models (LLMs) with the capacity to learn in context, achieving downstream generalization without gradient updates but with a few in-context examples. Despite the encouraging empirical success, the underlying mechanism of ICL remains unclear, and existing research offers various viewpoints of understanding. These studies propose intuition-driven and ad-hoc technical solutions for interpreting ICL, illustrating an ambiguous road map. In this paper, we leverage a data generation perspective to reinterpret recent efforts and demonstrate the potential broader usage of popular technical solutions, approaching a systematic angle. For a conceptual definition, we rigorously adopt the terms of skill learning and skill recognition. The difference between them is skill learning can learn new data generation functions from in-context data. We also provide a comprehensive study on the merits and weaknesses of different solutions, and highlight the uniformity among them given the perspective of data generation, establishing a technical foundation for future research to incorporate the strengths of different lines of research.

Change point detection is a typical task that aim to find changes in time series and can be tackled with two-sample test. Copula Entropy is a mathematical concept for measuring statistical independence and a two-sample test based on it was introduced recently. In this paper we propose a nonparametric multivariate method for multiple change point detection with the copula entropy-based two-sample test. The single change point detection is first proposed as a group of two-sample tests on every points of time series data and the change point is considered as with the maximum of the test statistics. The multiple change point detection is then proposed by combining the single change point detection method with binary segmentation strategy. We verified the effectiveness of our method and compared it with the other similar methods on the simulated univariate and multivariate data and the Nile data.

Digital images and videos play a very important role in everyday life. Nowadays, people have access the affordable mobile devices equipped with advanced integrated cameras and powerful image processing applications. Technological development facilitates not only the generation of multimedia content, but also the intentional modification of it, either with recreational or malicious purposes. This is where forensic techniques to detect manipulation of images and videos become essential. This paper proposes a forensic technique by analysing compression algorithms used by the H.264 coding. The presence of recompression uses information of macroblocks, a characteristic of the H.264-MPEG4 standard, and motion vectors. A Vector Support Machine is used to create the model that allows to accurately detect if a video has been recompressed.

In high-stakes systems such as healthcare, it is critical to understand the causal reasons behind unusual events, such as sudden changes in patient's health. Unveiling the causal reasons helps with quick diagnoses and precise treatment planning. In this paper, we propose an automated method for uncovering "if-then" logic rules to explain observational events. We introduce temporal point processes to model the events of interest, and discover the set of latent rules to explain the occurrence of events. To achieve this, we employ an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. In the E-step, we calculate the likelihood of each event being explained by each discovered rule. In the M-step, we update both the rule set and model parameters to enhance the likelihood function's lower bound. Notably, we optimize the rule set in a differential manner. Our approach demonstrates accurate performance in both discovering rules and identifying root causes. We showcase its promising results using synthetic and real healthcare datasets.

Active learning (AL) aims to improve model performance within a fixed labeling budget by choosing the most informative data points to label. Existing AL focuses on the single-domain setting, where all data come from the same domain (e.g., the same dataset). However, many real-world tasks often involve multiple domains. For example, in visual recognition, it is often desirable to train an image classifier that works across different environments (e.g., different backgrounds), where images from each environment constitute one domain. Such a multi-domain AL setting is challenging for prior methods because they (1) ignore the similarity among different domains when assigning labeling budget and (2) fail to handle distribution shift of data across different domains. In this paper, we propose the first general method, dubbed composite active learning (CAL), for multi-domain AL. Our approach explicitly considers the domain-level and instance-level information in the problem; CAL first assigns domain-level budgets according to domain-level importance, which is estimated by optimizing an upper error bound that we develop; with the domain-level budgets, CAL then leverages a certain instance-level query strategy to select samples to label from each domain. Our theoretical analysis shows that our method achieves a better error bound compared to current AL methods. Our empirical results demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art AL methods on both synthetic and real-world multi-domain datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/Wang-ML-Lab/multi-domain-active-learning.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have become a building block in graph data processing, with wide applications in critical domains. The growing needs to deploy GNNs in high-stakes applications necessitate explainability for users in the decision-making processes. A popular paradigm for the explainability of GNNs is to identify explainable subgraphs by comparing their labels with the ones of original graphs. This task is challenging due to the substantial distributional shift from the original graphs in the training set to the set of explainable subgraphs, which prevents accurate prediction of labels with the subgraphs. To address it, in this paper, we propose a novel method that generates proxy graphs for explainable subgraphs that are in the distribution of training data. We introduce a parametric method that employs graph generators to produce proxy graphs. A new training objective based on information theory is designed to ensure that proxy graphs not only adhere to the distribution of training data but also preserve essential explanatory factors. Such generated proxy graphs can be reliably used for approximating the predictions of the true labels of explainable subgraphs. Empirical evaluations across various datasets demonstrate our method achieves more accurate explanations for GNNs.