In recent years, attention-based transformers have achieved tremendous success across a variety of disciplines including natural languages. A key ingredient behind their success is the generative pretraining procedure, during which these models are trained on a large text corpus in an auto-regressive manner. To shed light on this phenomenon, we propose a new framework that allows both theory and systematic experiments to study the sequential modeling capabilities of transformers through the lens of Markov chains. Inspired by the Markovianity of natural languages, we model the data as a Markovian source and utilize this framework to systematically study the interplay between the data-distributional properties, the transformer architecture, the learnt distribution, and the final model performance. In particular, we theoretically characterize the loss landscape of single-layer transformers and show the existence of global minima and bad local minima contingent upon the specific data characteristics and the transformer architecture. Backed by experiments, we demonstrate that our theoretical findings are in congruence with the empirical results. We further investigate these findings in the broader context of higher order Markov chains and deeper architectures, and outline open problems in this arena. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/Bond1995/Markov}.

Recent works have shown that by using large pre-trained models along with learnable prompts, rehearsal-free methods for class-incremental learning (CIL) settings can achieve superior performance to prominent rehearsal-based ones. Rehearsal-free CIL methods struggle with distinguishing classes from different tasks, as those are not trained together. In this work we propose a regularization method based on virtual outliers to tighten decision boundaries of the classifier, such that confusion of classes among different tasks is mitigated. Recent prompt-based methods often require a pool of task-specific prompts, in order to prevent overwriting knowledge of previous tasks with that of the new task, leading to extra computation in querying and composing an appropriate prompt from the pool. This additional cost can be eliminated, without sacrificing accuracy, as we reveal in the paper. We illustrate that a simplified prompt-based method can achieve results comparable to previous state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods equipped with a prompt pool, using much less learnable parameters and lower inference cost. Our regularization method has demonstrated its compatibility with different prompt-based methods, boosting those previous SOTA rehearsal-free CIL methods' accuracy on the ImageNet-R and CIFAR-100 benchmarks. Our source code is available at https://github.com/jpmorganchase/ovor.

EU directives stipulate a systematic follow-up of train delays. In Sweden, the Swedish Transport Administration registers and assigns an appropriate delay attribution code. However, this delay attribution code is assigned manually, which is a complex task. In this paper, a machine learning-based decision support for assigning delay attribution codes based on event descriptions is investigated. The text is transformed using TF-IDF, and two models, Random Forest and Support Vector Machine, are evaluated against a random uniform classifier and the classification performance of the Swedish Transport Administration. Further, the problem is modeled as both a hierarchical and flat approach. The results indicate that a hierarchical approach performs better than a flat approach. Both approaches perform better than the random uniform classifier but perform worse than the manual classification.

Recently, peoples awareness of online purchases has significantly risen. This has given rise to online retail platforms and the need for a better understanding of customer purchasing behaviour. Retail companies are pressed with the need to deal with a high volume of customer purchases, which requires sophisticated approaches to perform more accurate and efficient customer segmentation. Customer segmentation is a marketing analytical tool that aids customer-centric service and thus enhances profitability. In this paper, we aim to develop a customer segmentation model to improve decision-making processes in the retail market industry. To achieve this, we employed a UK-based online retail dataset obtained from the UCI machine learning repository. The retail dataset consists of 541,909 customer records and eight features. Our study adopted the RFM (recency, frequency, and monetary) framework to quantify customer values. Thereafter, we compared several state-of-the-art (SOTA) clustering algorithms, namely, K-means clustering, the Gaussian mixture model (GMM), density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN), agglomerative clustering, and balanced iterative reducing and clustering using hierarchies (BIRCH). The results showed the GMM outperformed other approaches, with a Silhouette Score of 0.80.

Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) has gained popularity for its remarkable zero-shot capacity. Recent research has focused on developing efficient fine-tuning methods, such as prompt learning and adapter, to enhance CLIP's performance in downstream tasks. However, these methods still require additional training time and computational resources, which is undesirable for devices with limited resources. In this paper, we revisit a classical algorithm, Gaussian Discriminant Analysis (GDA), and apply it to the downstream classification of CLIP. Typically, GDA assumes that features of each class follow Gaussian distributions with identical covariance. By leveraging Bayes' formula, the classifier can be expressed in terms of the class means and covariance, which can be estimated from the data without the need for training. To integrate knowledge from both visual and textual modalities, we ensemble it with the original zero-shot classifier within CLIP. Extensive results on 17 datasets validate that our method surpasses or achieves comparable results with state-of-the-art methods on few-shot classification, imbalanced learning, and out-of-distribution generalization. In addition, we extend our method to base-to-new generalization and unsupervised learning, once again demonstrating its superiority over competing approaches. Our code is publicly available at \url{https://github.com/mrflogs/ICLR24}.

The multi-head attention layer is one of the key components of the transformer architecture that sets it apart from traditional feed-forward models. Given a sequence length $k$, attention matrices $\mathbf{\Theta}_1,\ldots,\mathbf{\Theta}_m\in\mathbb{R}^{d\times d}$, and projection matrices $\mathbf{W}_1,\ldots,\mathbf{W}_m\in\mathbb{R}^{d\times d}$, the corresponding multi-head attention layer $F: \mathbb{R}^{k\times d}\to \mathbb{R}^{k\times d}$ transforms length-$k$ sequences of $d$-dimensional tokens $\mathbf{X}\in\mathbb{R}^{k\times d}$ via $F(\mathbf{X}) \triangleq \sum^m_{i=1} \mathrm{softmax}(\mathbf{X}\mathbf{\Theta}_i\mathbf{X}^\top)\mathbf{X}\mathbf{W}_i$. In this work, we initiate the study of provably learning a multi-head attention layer from random examples and give the first nontrivial upper and lower bounds for this problem: - Provided $\{\mathbf{W}_i, \mathbf{\Theta}_i\}$ satisfy certain non-degeneracy conditions, we give a $(dk)^{O(m^3)}$-time algorithm that learns $F$ to small error given random labeled examples drawn uniformly from $\{\pm 1\}^{k\times d}$. - We prove computational lower bounds showing that in the worst case, exponential dependence on $m$ is unavoidable. We focus on Boolean $\mathbf{X}$ to mimic the discrete nature of tokens in large language models, though our techniques naturally extend to standard continuous settings, e.g. Gaussian. Our algorithm, which is centered around using examples to sculpt a convex body containing the unknown parameters, is a significant departure from existing provable algorithms for learning feedforward networks, which predominantly exploit algebraic and rotation invariance properties of the Gaussian distribution. In contrast, our analysis is more flexible as it primarily relies on various upper and lower tail bounds for the input distribution and "slices" thereof.

An accurate prediction of house prices is a fundamental requirement for various sectors including real estate and mortgage lending. It is widely recognized that a property value is not solely determined by its physical attributes but is significantly influenced by its surrounding neighbourhood. Meeting the diverse housing needs of individuals while balancing budget constraints is a primary concern for real estate developers. To this end, we addressed the house price prediction problem as a regression task and thus employed various machine learning techniques capable of expressing the significance of independent variables. We made use of the housing dataset of Ames City in Iowa, USA to compare support vector regressor, random forest regressor, XGBoost, multilayer perceptron and multiple linear regression algorithms for house price prediction. Afterwards, we identified the key factors that influence housing costs. Our results show that XGBoost is the best performing model for house price prediction.

Link prediction with knowledge graphs has been thoroughly studied in graph machine learning, leading to a rich landscape of graph neural network architectures with successful applications. Nonetheless, it remains challenging to transfer the success of these architectures to link prediction with relational hypergraphs. The presence of relational hyperedges makes link prediction a task between $k$ nodes for varying choices of $k$, which is substantially harder than link prediction with knowledge graphs, where every relation is binary ($k=2$). In this paper, we propose two frameworks for link prediction with relational hypergraphs and conduct a thorough analysis of the expressive power of the resulting model architectures via corresponding relational Weisfeiler-Leman algorithms, and also via some natural logical formalisms. Through extensive empirical analysis, we validate the power of the proposed model architectures on various relational hypergraph benchmarks. The resulting model architectures substantially outperform every baseline for inductive link prediction, and lead to state-of-the-art results for transductive link prediction. Our study therefore unlocks applications of graph neural networks to fully relational structures.

We introduce a new framework for studying meta-learning methods using PAC-Bayesian theory. Its main advantage over previous work is that it allows for more flexibility in how the transfer of knowledge between tasks is realized. For previous approaches, this could only happen indirectly, by means of learning prior distributions over models. In contrast, the new generalization bounds that we prove express the process of meta-learning much more directly as learning the learning algorithm that should be used for future tasks. The flexibility of our framework makes it suitable to analyze a wide range of meta-learning mechanisms and even design new mechanisms. Other than our theoretical contributions we also show empirically that our framework improves the prediction quality in practical meta-learning mechanisms.

Recently, Ainsworth et al. showed that using weight matching (WM) to minimize the $L_2$ distance in a permutation search of model parameters effectively identifies permutations that satisfy linear mode connectivity (LMC), in which the loss along a linear path between two independently trained models with different seeds remains nearly constant. This paper provides a theoretical analysis of LMC using WM, which is crucial for understanding stochastic gradient descent's effectiveness and its application in areas like model merging. We first experimentally and theoretically show that permutations found by WM do not significantly reduce the $L_2$ distance between two models and the occurrence of LMC is not merely due to distance reduction by WM in itself. We then provide theoretical insights showing that permutations can change the directions of the singular vectors, but not the singular values, of the weight matrices in each layer. This finding shows that permutations found by WM mainly align the directions of singular vectors associated with large singular values across models. This alignment brings the singular vectors with large singular values, which determine the model functionality, closer between pre-merged and post-merged models, so that the post-merged model retains functionality similar to the pre-merged models, making it easy to satisfy LMC. Finally, we analyze the difference between WM and straight-through estimator (STE), a dataset-dependent permutation search method, and show that WM outperforms STE, especially when merging three or more models.