We study the problem of robust multivariate polynomial regression: let $p\colon\mathbb{R}^n\to\mathbb{R}$ be an unknown $n$-variate polynomial of degree at most $d$ in each variable. We are given as input a set of random samples $(\mathbf{x}_i,y_i) \in [-1,1]^n \times \mathbb{R}$ that are noisy versions of $(\mathbf{x}_i,p(\mathbf{x}_i))$. More precisely, each $\mathbf{x}_i$ is sampled independently from some distribution $\chi$ on $[-1,1]^n$, and for each $i$ independently, $y_i$ is arbitrary (i.e., an outlier) with probability at most $\rho < 1/2$, and otherwise satisfies $|y_i-p(\mathbf{x}_i)|\leq\sigma$. The goal is to output a polynomial $\hat{p}$, of degree at most $d$ in each variable, within an $\ell_\infty$-distance of at most $O(\sigma)$ from $p$. Kane, Karmalkar, and Price [FOCS'17] solved this problem for $n=1$. We generalize their results to the $n$-variate setting, showing an algorithm that achieves a sample complexity of $O_n(d^n\log d)$, where the hidden constant depends on $n$, if $\chi$ is the $n$-dimensional Chebyshev distribution. The sample complexity is $O_n(d^{2n}\log d)$, if the samples are drawn from the uniform distribution instead. The approximation error is guaranteed to be at most $O(\sigma)$, and the run-time depends on $\log(1/\sigma)$. In the setting where each $\mathbf{x}_i$ and $y_i$ are known up to $N$ bits of precision, the run-time's dependence on $N$ is linear. We also show that our sample complexities are optimal in terms of $d^n$. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to have the run-time be independent of $1/\sigma$, at the cost of a higher sample complexity.

We study general coordinate-wise MCMC schemes (such as Metropolis-within-Gibbs samplers), which are commonly used to fit Bayesian non-conjugate hierarchical models. We relate their convergence properties to the ones of the corresponding (potentially not implementable) Gibbs sampler through the notion of conditional conductance. This allows us to study the performances of popular Metropolis-within-Gibbs schemes for non-conjugate hierarchical models, in high-dimensional regimes where both number of datapoints and parameters increase. Given random data-generating assumptions, we establish dimension-free convergence results, which are in close accordance with numerical evidences. Applications to Bayesian models for binary regression with unknown hyperparameters and discretely observed diffusions are also discussed. Motivated by such statistical applications, auxiliary results of independent interest on approximate conductances and perturbation of Markov operators are provided.

Causal discovery, i.e., learning the causal graph from data, is often the first step toward the identification and estimation of causal effects, a key requirement in numerous scientific domains. Causal discovery is hampered by two main challenges: limited data results in errors in statistical testing and the computational complexity of the learning task is daunting. This paper builds upon and extends four of our prior publications (Mokhtarian et al., 2021; Akbari et al., 2021; Mokhtarian et al., 2022, 2023a). These works introduced the concept of removable variables, which are the only variables that can be removed recursively for the purpose of causal discovery. Presence and identification of removable variables allow recursive approaches for causal discovery, a promising solution that helps to address the aforementioned challenges by reducing the problem size successively. This reduction not only minimizes conditioning sets in each conditional independence (CI) test, leading to fewer errors but also significantly decreases the number of required CI tests. The worst-case performances of these methods nearly match the lower bound. In this paper, we present a unified framework for the proposed algorithms, refined with additional details and enhancements for a coherent presentation. A comprehensive literature review is also included, comparing the computational complexity of our methods with existing approaches, showcasing their state-of-the-art efficiency. Another contribution of this paper is the release of RCD, a Python package that efficiently implements these algorithms. This package is designed for practitioners and researchers interested in applying these methods in practical scenarios. The package is available at github.com/ban-epfl/rcd, with comprehensive documentation provided at rcdpackage.com.

Model selection aims to find the best model in terms of accuracy, interpretability or simplicity, preferably all at once. In this work, we focus on evaluating model performance of Gaussian process models, i.e. finding a metric that provides the best trade-off between all those criteria. While previous work considers metrics like the likelihood, AIC or dynamic nested sampling, they either lack performance or have significant runtime issues, which severely limits applicability. We address these challenges by introducing multiple metrics based on the Laplace approximation, where we overcome a severe inconsistency occuring during naive application of the Laplace approximation. Experiments show that our metrics are comparable in quality to the gold standard dynamic nested sampling without compromising for computational speed. Our model selection criteria allow significantly faster and high quality model selection of Gaussian process models.

Concept Bottleneck Model (CBM) is a methods for explaining neural networks. In CBM, concepts which correspond to reasons of outputs are inserted in the last intermediate layer as observed values. It is expected that we can interpret the relationship between the output and concept similar to linear regression. However, this interpretation requires observing all concepts and decreases the generalization performance of neural networks. Partial CBM (PCBM), which uses partially observed concepts, has been devised to resolve these difficulties. Although some numerical experiments suggest that the generalization performance of PCBMs is almost as high as that of the original neural networks, the theoretical behavior of its generalization error has not been yet clarified since PCBM is singular statistical model. In this paper, we reveal the Bayesian generalization error in PCBM with a three-layered and linear architecture. The result indcates that the structure of partially observed concepts decreases the Bayesian generalization error compared with that of CBM (full-observed concepts).

We present a comprehensive analysis of singular vector and singular subspace perturbations in the context of the signal plus random Gaussian noise matrix model. Assuming a low-rank signal matrix, we extend the Wedin-Davis-Kahan theorem in a fully generalized manner, applicable to any unitarily invariant matrix norm, extending previous results of O'Rourke, Vu and the author. We also obtain the fine-grained results, which encompass the $\ell_\infty$ analysis of singular vectors, the $\ell_{2, \infty}$ analysis of singular subspaces, as well as the exploration of linear and bilinear functions related to the singular vectors. Moreover, we explore the practical implications of these findings, in the context of the Gaussian mixture model and the submatrix localization problem.

Sparse Subspace Clustering (SSC) and Low-Rank Representation (LRR) are both considered as the state-of-the-art methods for subspace clustering. The two methods are fundamentally similar in that both are convex optimizations exploiting the intuition of "Self-Expressiveness".

We establish theoretical results concerning local optima of regularized M-estimators, where both loss and penalty functions are allowed to be nonconvex. Our results show that as long as the loss satisfies restricted strong convexity and the penalty satisfies suitable regularity conditions, any local optimum of the composite objective lies within statistical precision of the true parameter vector. Our theory covers a broad class of nonconvex objective functions, including corrected versions of the Lasso for errors-in-variables linear models and regression in generalized linear models using nonconvex regularizers such as SCAD and MCP.

Discriminative methods for learning structured models have enabled wide-spread use of very rich feature representations. However, the computational cost of feature extraction is prohibitive for large-scale or time-sensitive applications, often dominating the cost of inference in the models. Significant efforts have been devoted to sparsity-based model selection to decrease this cost. Such feature selection methods control computation statically and miss the opportunity to finetune feature extraction to each input at run-time. We address the key challenge of learning to control fine-grained feature extraction adaptively, exploiting nonhomogeneity of the data. We propose an architecture that uses a rich feedback loop between extraction and prediction. The run-time control policy is learned using efficient value-function approximation, which adaptively determines the value of information of features at the level of individual variables for each input. We demonstrate significant speedups over state-of-the-art methods on two challenging datasets. For articulated pose estimation in video, we achieve a more accurate state-of-the-art model that is also faster, with similar results on an OCR task.

Principal geodesic analysis (PGA) is a generalization of principal component analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction of data on a Riemannian manifold. Currently PGA is defined as a geometric fit to the data, rather than as a probabilistic model. Inspired by probabilistic PCA, we present a latent variable model for PGA that provides a probabilistic framework for factor analysis on manifolds. To compute maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in our model, we develop a Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization algorithm, where the expectation is approximated by Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling of the latent variables. We demonstrate the ability of our method to recover the ground truth parameters in simulated sphere data, as well as its effectiveness in analyzing shape variability of a corpus callosum data set from human brain images.