Statistical Learning
Analyzing Male Domestic Violence through Exploratory Data Analysis and Explainable Machine Learning Insights
Jahin, Md Abrar, Naife, Saleh Akram, Lima, Fatema Tuj Johora, Mridha, M. F., Shin, Jungpil
Domestic violence, which is often perceived as a gendered issue among female victims, has gained increasing attention in recent years. Despite this focus, male victims of domestic abuse remain primarily overlooked, particularly in Bangladesh. Our study represents a pioneering exploration of the underexplored realm of male domestic violence (MDV) within the Bangladeshi context, shedding light on its prevalence, patterns, and underlying factors. Existing literature predominantly emphasizes female victimization in domestic violence scenarios, leading to an absence of research on male victims. We collected data from the major cities of Bangladesh and conducted exploratory data analysis to understand the underlying dynamics. We implemented 11 traditional machine learning models with default and optimized hyperparameters, 2 deep learning, and 4 ensemble models. Despite various approaches, CatBoost has emerged as the top performer due to its native support for categorical features, efficient handling of missing values, and robust regularization techniques, achieving 76% accuracy. In contrast, other models achieved accuracy rates in the range of 58-75%. The eXplainable AI techniques, SHAP and LIME, were employed to gain insights into the decision-making of black-box machine learning models. By shedding light on this topic and identifying factors associated with domestic abuse, the study contributes to identifying groups of people vulnerable to MDV, raising awareness, and informing policies and interventions aimed at reducing MDV. Our findings challenge the prevailing notion that domestic abuse primarily affects women, thus emphasizing the need for tailored interventions and support systems for male victims. ML techniques enhance the analysis and understanding of the data, providing valuable insights for developing effective strategies to combat this pressing social issue.
Unifying Lane-Level Traffic Prediction from a Graph Structural Perspective: Benchmark and Baseline
Li, Shuhao, Cui, Yue, Xu, Jingyi, Li, Libin, Meng, Lingkai, Yang, Weidong, Zhang, Fan, Zhou, Xiaofang
Traffic prediction has long been a focal and pivotal area in research, witnessing both significant strides from city-level to road-level predictions in recent years. With the advancement of Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) technologies, autonomous driving, and large-scale models in the traffic domain, lane-level traffic prediction has emerged as an indispensable direction. However, further progress in this field is hindered by the absence of comprehensive and unified evaluation standards, coupled with limited public availability of data and code. This paper extensively analyzes and categorizes existing research in lane-level traffic prediction, establishes a unified spatial topology structure and prediction tasks, and introduces a simple baseline model, GraphMLP, based on graph structure and MLP networks. We have replicated codes not publicly available in existing studies and, based on this, thoroughly and fairly assessed various models in terms of effectiveness, efficiency, and applicability, providing insights for practical applications. Additionally, we have released three new datasets and corresponding codes to accelerate progress in this field, all of which can be found on https://github.com/ShuhaoLii/TITS24LaneLevel-Traffic-Benchmark.
The Effectiveness of Local Updates for Decentralized Learning under Data Heterogeneity
We revisit two fundamental decentralized optimization methods, Decentralized Gradient Tracking (DGT) and Decentralized Gradient Descent (DGD), with multiple local updates. We consider two settings and demonstrate that incorporating $K > 1$ local update steps can reduce communication complexity. Specifically, for $\mu$-strongly convex and $L$-smooth loss functions, we proved that local DGT achieves communication complexity $\tilde{\mathcal{O}} \Big(\frac{L}{\mu K} + \frac{\delta}{\mu (1 - \rho)} + \frac{\rho }{(1 - \rho)^2} \cdot \frac{L+ \delta}{\mu}\Big)$, where $\rho$ measures the network connectivity and $\delta$ measures the second-order heterogeneity of the local loss. Our result reveals the tradeoff between communication and computation and shows increasing $K$ can effectively reduce communication costs when the data heterogeneity is low and the network is well-connected. We then consider the over-parameterization regime where the local losses share the same minimums, we proved that employing local updates in DGD, even without gradient correction, can yield a similar effect as DGT in reducing communication complexity. Numerical experiments validate our theoretical results.
Piecewise-Linear Manifolds for Deep Metric Learning
Bhatnagar, Shubhang, Ahuja, Narendra
Unsupervised deep metric learning (UDML) focuses on learning a semantic representation space using only unlabeled data. This challenging problem requires accurately estimating the similarity between data points, which is used to supervise a deep network. For this purpose, we propose to model the high-dimensional data manifold using a piecewise-linear approximation, with each low-dimensional linear piece approximating the data manifold in a small neighborhood of a point. These neighborhoods are used to estimate similarity between data points. We empirically show that this similarity estimate correlates better with the ground truth than the similarity estimates of current state-of-the-art techniques. We also show that proxies, commonly used in supervised metric learning, can be used to model the piecewise-linear manifold in an unsupervised setting, helping improve performance. Our method outperforms existing unsupervised metric learning approaches on standard zero-shot image retrieval benchmarks.
Cascading Blackout Severity Prediction with Statistically-Augmented Graph Neural Networks
Gorka, Joe, Hsu, Tim, Li, Wenting, Maximov, Yury, Roald, Line
Higher variability in grid conditions, resulting from growing renewable penetration and increased incidence of extreme weather events, has increased the difficulty of screening for scenarios that may lead to catastrophic cascading failures. Traditional power-flow-based tools for assessing cascading blackout risk are too slow to properly explore the space of possible failures and load/generation patterns. We add to the growing literature of faster graph-neural-network (GNN)-based techniques, developing two novel techniques for the estimation of blackout magnitude from initial grid conditions. First we propose several methods for employing an initial classification step to filter out safe "non blackout" scenarios prior to magnitude estimation. Second, using insights from the statistical properties of cascading blackouts, we propose a method for facilitating non-local message passing in our GNN models. We validate these two approaches on a large simulated dataset, and show the potential of both to increase blackout size estimation performance.
A Temporally Disentangled Contrastive Diffusion Model for Spatiotemporal Imputation
Chen, Yakun, Shi, Kaize, Wu, Zhangkai, Chen, Juan, Wang, Xianzhi, McAuley, Julian, Xu, Guandong, Yu, Shui
Spatiotemporal data analysis is pivotal across various domains, such as transportation, meteorology, and healthcare. The data collected in real-world scenarios are often incomplete due to device malfunctions and network errors. Spatiotemporal imputation aims to predict missing values by exploiting the spatial and temporal dependencies in the observed data. Traditional imputation approaches based on statistical and machine learning techniques require the data to conform to their distributional assumptions, while graph and recurrent neural networks are prone to error accumulation problems due to their recurrent structures. Generative models, especially diffusion models, can potentially circumvent the reliance on inaccurate, previously imputed values for future predictions; However, diffusion models still face challenges in generating stable results. We propose to address these challenges by designing conditional information to guide the generative process and expedite the training process. We introduce a conditional diffusion framework called C$^2$TSD, which incorporates disentangled temporal (trend and seasonality) representations as conditional information and employs contrastive learning to improve generalizability. Our extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our approach compared to a number of state-of-the-art baselines.
Model Uncertainty in Evolutionary Optimization and Bayesian Optimization: A Comparative Analysis
Hao, Hao, Zhang, Xiaoqun, Zhou, Aimin
Black-box optimization problems, which are common in many real-world applications, require optimization through input-output interactions without access to internal workings. This often leads to significant computational resources being consumed for simulations. Bayesian Optimization (BO) and Surrogate-Assisted Evolutionary Algorithm (SAEA) are two widely used gradient-free optimization techniques employed to address such challenges. Both approaches follow a similar iterative procedure that relies on surrogate models to guide the search process. This paper aims to elucidate the similarities and differences in the utilization of model uncertainty between these two methods, as well as the impact of model inaccuracies on algorithmic performance. A novel model-assisted strategy is introduced, which utilizes unevaluated solutions to generate offspring, leveraging the population-based search capabilities of evolutionary algorithm to enhance the effectiveness of model-assisted optimization. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms mainstream Bayesian optimization algorithms in terms of accuracy and efficiency.
Large Language Model-informed ECG Dual Attention Network for Heart Failure Risk Prediction
Chen, Chen, Li, Lei, Beetz, Marcel, Banerjee, Abhirup, Gupta, Ramneek, Grau, Vicente
Heart failure (HF) poses a significant public health challenge, with a rising global mortality rate. Early detection and prevention of HF could significantly reduce its impact. We introduce a novel methodology for predicting HF risk using 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs). We present a novel, lightweight dual-attention ECG network designed to capture complex ECG features essential for early HF risk prediction, despite the notable imbalance between low and high-risk groups. This network incorporates a cross-lead attention module and twelve lead-specific temporal attention modules, focusing on cross-lead interactions and each lead's local dynamics. To further alleviate model overfitting, we leverage a large language model (LLM) with a public ECG-Report dataset for pretraining on an ECG-report alignment task. The network is then fine-tuned for HF risk prediction using two specific cohorts from the UK Biobank study, focusing on patients with hypertension (UKB-HYP) and those who have had a myocardial infarction (UKB-MI).The results reveal that LLM-informed pre-training substantially enhances HF risk prediction in these cohorts. The dual-attention design not only improves interpretability but also predictive accuracy, outperforming existing competitive methods with C-index scores of 0.6349 for UKB-HYP and 0.5805 for UKB-MI. This demonstrates our method's potential in advancing HF risk assessment with clinical complex ECG data.
Beyond Quantities: Machine Learning-based Characterization of Inequality in Infrastructure Quality Provision in Cities
The objective of this study is to characterize inequality in infrastructure quality across urban areas. While a growing of body of literature has recognized the importance of characterizing infrastructure inequality in cities and provided quantified metrics to inform urban development plans, the majority of the existing approaches focus primarily on measuring the quantity of infrastructure, assuming that more infrastructure is better. Also, the existing research focuses primarily on index-based approaches in which the status of infrastructure provision in urban areas is determined based on assumed subjective weights. The focus on infrastructure quantity and use of indices obtained from subjective weights has hindered the ability to properly examine infrastructure inequality as it pertains to urban inequality and environmental justice considerations. Recognizing this gap, we propose a machine learning-based approach in which infrastructure features that shape environmental hazard exposure are identified and we use the weights obtained by the model to calculate an infrastructure quality provision for spatial areas of cities and accordingly, quantify the extent of inequality in infrastructure quality. The implementation of the model in five metropolitan areas in the U.S. demonstrates the capability of the proposed approach in characterizing inequality in infrastructure quality and capturing city-specific differences in the weights of infrastructure features. The results also show that areas in which low-income populations reside have lower infrastructure quality provision, suggesting the lower infrastructure quality provision as a determinant of urban disparities. Accordingly, the proposed approach can be effectively used to inform integrated urban design strategies to promote infrastructure equity and environmental justice based on data-driven and machine intelligence-based insights.
Conformal online model aggregation
Gasparin, Matteo, Ramdas, Aaditya
Conformal prediction equips machine learning models with a reasonable notion of uncertainty quantification without making strong distributional assumptions. It wraps around any black-box prediction model and converts point predictions into set predictions that have a predefined marginal coverage guarantee. However, conformal prediction only works if we fix the underlying machine learning model in advance. A relatively unaddressed issue in conformal prediction is that of model selection and/or aggregation: for a given problem, which of the plethora of prediction methods (random forests, neural nets, regularized linear models, etc.) should we conformalize? This paper proposes a new approach towards conformal model aggregation in online settings that is based on combining the prediction sets from several algorithms by voting, where weights on the models are adapted over time based on past performance.