Intersection crossing represents one of the most dangerous sections of the road infrastructure and Connected Vehicles (CVs) can serve as a revolutionary solution to the problem. In this work, we present a novel framework that detects preemptively collisions at urban crossroads, exploiting the Multi-access Edge Computing (MEC) platform of 5G networks. At the MEC, an Intersection Manager (IM) collects information from both vehicles and the road infrastructure to create a holistic view of the area of interest. Based on the historical data collected, the IM leverages the capabilities of an encoder-decoder recurrent neural network to predict, with high accuracy, the future vehicles' trajectories. As, however, accuracy is not a sufficient measure of how much we can trust a model, trajectory predictions are additionally associated with a measure of uncertainty towards confident collision forecasting and avoidance. Hence, contrary to any other approach in the state of the art, an uncertainty-aware collision prediction framework is developed that is shown to detect well in advance (and with high reliability) if two vehicles are on a collision course. Subsequently, collision detection triggers a number of alarms that signal the colliding vehicles to brake. Under real-world settings, thanks to the preemptive capabilities of the proposed approach, all the simulated imminent dangers are averted.

Blockmodeling of a given problem represented by an $N\times N$ adjacency matrix can be found by swapping rows and columns of the matrix (i.e. multiplying matrix from left and right by a permutation matrix). Although classical matrix permutations can be efficiently done by swapping pointers for the permuted rows (or columns) of the matrix, by changing row-column order, a permutation changes the location of the matrix elements, which determines the membership of a group in the matrix based blockmodeling. Therefore, a brute force initial estimation of a fitness value for a candidate solution involving counting the memberships of the elements may require going through all the sum of the rows (or the columns). Similarly permutations can be also implemented efficiently on quantum computers, e.g. a NOT gate on a qubit. In this paper, using permutation matrices and qubit measurements, we show how to solve blockmodeling on quantum computers. In the model, the measurement outcomes of a small group of qubits are mapped to indicate the fitness value. However, if the number of qubits in the considered group is much less than $n=log(N)$, it is possible to find or update the fitness value based on the state tomography in $O(poly(log(N)))$. Therefore, when the number of iterations is less than $log(N)$ time and the size of the considered qubit group is small, we show that it may be possible to reach the solution very efficiently.

Urban research has long recognized that neighbourhoods are dynamic and relational. However, lack of data, methodologies, and computer processing power have hampered a formal quantitative examination of neighbourhood relational dynamics. To make progress on this issue, this study proposes a graph neural network (GNN) approach that permits combining and evaluating multiple sources of information about internal characteristics of neighbourhoods, their past characteristics, and flows of groups among them, potentially providing greater expressive power in predictive models. By exploring a public large-scale dataset from Yelp, we show the potential of our approach for considering structural connectedness in predicting neighbourhood attributes, specifically to predict local culture. Results are promising from a substantive and methodologically point of view. Substantively, we find that either local area information (e.g. area demographics) or group profiles (tastes of Yelp reviewers) give the best results in predicting local culture, and they are nearly equivalent in all studied cases. Methodologically, exploring group profiles could be a helpful alternative where finding local information for specific areas is challenging, since they can be extracted automatically from many forms of online data. Thus, our approach could empower researchers and policy-makers to use a range of data sources when other local area information is lacking.

Intelligent machine learning approaches are finding active use for event detection and identification that allow real-time situational awareness. Yet, such machine learning algorithms have been shown to be susceptible to adversarial attacks on the incoming telemetry data. This paper considers a physics-based modal decomposition method to extract features for event classification and focuses on interpretable classifiers including logistic regression and gradient boosting to distinguish two types of events: load loss and generation loss. The resulting classifiers are then tested against an adversarial algorithm to evaluate their robustness. The adversarial attack is tested in two settings: the white box setting, wherein the attacker knows exactly the classification model; and the gray box setting, wherein the attacker has access to historical data from the same network as was used to train the classifier, but does not know the classification model. Thorough experiments on the synthetic South Carolina 500-bus system highlight that a relatively simpler model such as logistic regression is more susceptible to adversarial attacks than gradient boosting.

In this study, we address the challenge of constructing continuous three-dimensional (3D) models that accurately represent uncertain surfaces, derived from noisy and incomplete LiDAR scanning data. Building upon our prior work, which utilized the Gaussian Process (GP) and Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) for structured building models, we introduce a more generalized approach tailored for complex surfaces in urban scenes, where GMM Regression and GP with derivative observations are applied. A Hierarchical GMM (HGMM) is employed to optimize the number of GMM components and speed up the GMM training. With the prior map obtained from HGMM, GP inference is followed for the refinement of the final map. Our approach models the implicit surface of the geo-object and enables the inference of the regions that are not completely covered by measurements. The integration of GMM and GP yields well-calibrated uncertainty estimates alongside the surface model, enhancing both accuracy and reliability. The proposed method is evaluated on real data collected by a mobile mapping system. Compared to the performance in mapping accuracy and uncertainty quantification of other methods, such as Gaussian Process Implicit Surface map (GPIS) and log-Gaussian Process Implicit Surface map (Log-GPIS), the proposed method achieves lower RMSEs, higher log-likelihood values and lower computational costs for the evaluated datasets.

We consider a variant of online binary classification where a learner sequentially assigns labels ($0$ or $1$) to items with unknown true class. If, but only if, the learner chooses label $1$ they immediately observe the true label of the item. The learner faces a trade-off between short-term classification accuracy and long-term information gain. This problem has previously been studied under the name of the `apple tasting' problem. We revisit this problem as a partial monitoring problem with side information, and focus on the case where item features are linked to true classes via a logistic regression model. Our principal contribution is a study of the performance of Thompson Sampling (TS) for this problem. Using recently developed information-theoretic tools, we show that TS achieves a Bayesian regret bound of an improved order to previous approaches. Further, we experimentally verify that efficient approximations to TS and Information Directed Sampling via P\'{o}lya-Gamma augmentation have superior empirical performance to existing methods.

Formulating dynamical models for physical phenomena is essential for understanding the interplay between the different mechanisms and predicting the evolution of physical states. However, a dynamical model alone is often insufficient to address these fundamental tasks, as it suffers from model errors and uncertainties. One common remedy is to rely on data assimilation, where the state estimate is updated with observations of the true system. Ensemble filters sequentially assimilate observations by updating a set of samples over time. They operate in two steps: a forecast step that propagates each sample through the dynamical model and an analysis step that updates the samples with incoming observations. For accurate and robust predictions of dynamical systems, discrete solutions must preserve their critical invariants. While modern numerical solvers satisfy these invariants, existing invariant-preserving analysis steps are limited to Gaussian settings and are often not compatible with classical regularization techniques of ensemble filters, e.g., inflation and covariance tapering. The present work focuses on preserving linear invariants, such as mass, stoichiometric balance of chemical species, and electrical charges. Using tools from measure transport theory (Spantini et al., 2022, SIAM Review), we introduce a generic class of nonlinear ensemble filters that automatically preserve desired linear invariants in non-Gaussian filtering problems. By specializing this framework to the Gaussian setting, we recover a constrained formulation of the Kalman filter. Then, we show how to combine existing regularization techniques for the ensemble Kalman filter (Evensen, 1994, J. Geophys. Res.) with the preservation of the linear invariants. Finally, we assess the benefits of preserving linear invariants for the ensemble Kalman filter and nonlinear ensemble filters.

Survival analysis is widely used as a technique to model time-to-event data when some data is censored, particularly in healthcare for predicting future patient risk. In such settings, survival models must be both accurate and interpretable so that users (such as doctors) can trust the model and understand model predictions. While most literature focuses on discrimination, interpretability is equally as important. A successful interpretable model should be able to describe how changing each feature impacts the outcome, and should only use a small number of features. In this paper, we present DyS (pronounced ``dice''), a new survival analysis model that achieves both strong discrimination and interpretability. DyS is a feature-sparse Generalized Additive Model, combining feature selection and interpretable prediction into one model. While DyS works well for all survival analysis problems, it is particularly useful for large (in $n$ and $p$) survival datasets such as those commonly found in observational healthcare studies. Empirical studies show that DyS competes with other state-of-the-art machine learning models for survival analysis, while being highly interpretable.

Automotive insurers increasingly have access to telematic information via black-box recorders installed in the insured vehicle, and wish to identify undesirable behaviour which may signify increased risk or uninsured activities. However, identification of such behaviour with machine learning is non-trivial, and results are far from perfect, requiring human investigation to verify suspected cases. An appropriately formed priority score, generated by automated analysis of GPS data, allows underwriters to make more efficient use of their time, improving detection of the behaviour under investigation. An example of such behaviour is the use of a privately insured vehicle for commercial purposes, such as delivering meals and parcels. We first make use of trip GPS and accelerometer data, augmented by geospatial information, to train an imperfect classifier for delivery driving on a per-trip basis. We make use of a mixture of Beta-Binomial distributions to model the propensity of a policyholder to undertake trips which result in a positive classification as being drawn from either a rare high-scoring or common low-scoring group, and learn the parameters of this model using MCMC. This model provides us with a posterior probability that any policyholder will be a regular generator of automated alerts given any number of trips and alerts. This posterior probability is converted to a priority score, which was used to select the most valuable candidates for manual investigation. Testing over a 1-year period ranked policyholders by likelihood of commercial driving activity on a weekly basis. The top 0.9% have been reviewed at least once by the underwriters at the time of writing, and of those 99.4% have been confirmed as correctly identified, showing the approach has achieved a significant improvement in efficiency of human resource allocation compared to manual searching.

We have developed the world's first canopy height map of the distribution area of world-level giant trees. This mapping is crucial for discovering more individual and community world-level giant trees, and for analyzing and quantifying the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation measures in the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon (YTGC) National Nature Reserve. We proposed a method to map the canopy height of the primeval forest within the world-level giant tree distribution area by using a spaceborne LiDAR fusion satellite imagery (Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI), ICESat-2, and Sentinel-2) driven deep learning modeling. And we customized a pyramid receptive fields depth separable CNN (PRFXception). PRFXception, a CNN architecture specifically customized for mapping primeval forest canopy height to infer the canopy height at the footprint level of GEDI and ICESat-2 from Sentinel-2 optical imagery with a 10-meter spatial resolution. We conducted a field survey of 227 permanent plots using a stratified sampling method and measured several giant trees using UAV-LS. The predicted canopy height was compared with ICESat-2 and GEDI validation data (RMSE =7.56 m, MAE=6.07 m, ME=-0.98 m, R^2=0.58 m), UAV-LS point clouds (RMSE =5.75 m, MAE =3.72 m, ME = 0.82 m, R^2= 0.65 m), and ground survey data (RMSE = 6.75 m, MAE = 5.56 m, ME= 2.14 m, R^2=0.60 m). We mapped the potential distribution map of world-level giant trees and discovered two previously undetected giant tree communities with an 89% probability of having trees 80-100 m tall, potentially taller than Asia's tallest tree. This paper provides scientific evidence confirming southeastern Tibet--northwestern Yunnan as the fourth global distribution center of world-level giant trees initiatives and promoting the inclusion of the YTGC giant tree distribution area within the scope of China's national park conservation.