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 Statistical Learning


Enhancing Time Series Forecasting through Selective Representation Spaces: APatch Perspective

Neural Information Processing Systems

Time Series Forecasting has made significant progress with the help of Patching technique, which partitions time series into multiple patches to effectively retain contextual semantic information into a representation space beneficial for modeling long-term dependencies. However, conventional patching partitions a time series into adjacent patches, which causes a fixed representation space, thus resulting in insufficiently expressful representations. In this paper, we pioneer the exploration of constructing a selective representation space to flexibly include the most informative patches for forecasting. Specifically, we propose the Selective Representation Space (SRS) module, which utilizes the learnable Selective Patching and Dynamic Reassembly techniques to adaptively select and shuffle the patches from the contextual time series, aiming at fully exploiting the information of contextual time series to enhance the forecasting performance of patch-based models. To demonstrate the effectiveness of SRS module, we propose a simple yet effective SRSNet consisting of SRS and an MLP head, which achieves state-of-the-art performance on real-world datasets from multiple domains. Furthermore, as a novel plug-and-play module, SRS can also enhance the performance of existing patch-based models.


Minimizing False-Positive Attributions in Explanations of Non-Linear Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Suppressor variables can influence model predictions without being dependent on the target outcome, and they pose a significant challenge for Explainable AI (XAI) methods. These variables may cause false-positive feature attributions, undermining the utility of explanations. Although effective remedies exist for linear models, their extension to non-linear models and instance-based explanations has remained limited. We introduce PatternLocal, a novel XAI technique that addresses this gap. PatternLocal begins with a locally linear surrogate, e.g., LIME, KernelSHAP, or gradient-based methods, and transforms the resulting discriminative model weights into a generative representation, thereby suppressing the influence of suppressor variables while preserving local fidelity. In extensive hyperparameter optimization on the XAI-TRIS benchmark, PatternLocal consistently outperformed other XAI methods and reduced false-positive attributions when explaining non-linear tasks, thereby enabling more reliable and actionable insights. We further evaluate PatternLocal on an EEG motor imagery dataset, demonstrating physiologically plausible explanations.


ASingle-Loop Gradient Algorithm for Pessimistic Bilevel Optimization via Smooth Approximation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Bilevel optimization has garnered significant attention in the machine learning community recently, particularly regarding the development of efficient numerical methods. While substantial progress has been made in developing efficient algorithms for optimistic bilevel optimization, the study of methods for solving Pessimistic Bilevel Optimization (PBO) remains relatively less explored, especially the design of fully first-order, single-loop gradient-based algorithms. This paper aims to bridge this research gap. We first propose a novel smooth approximation to the PBO problem, using penalization and regularization techniques. Building upon this approximation, we then propose SiPBA (Single-loop Pessimistic Bilevel Algorithm), a new gradient-based method specifically designed for PBO which avoids second-order derivative information or inner-loop iterations for subproblem solving. We provide theoretical validation for the proposed smooth approximation scheme and establish theoretical convergence for the algorithm SiPBA. Numerical experiments on synthetic examples and practical applications demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of SiPBA.


Fair Representation Learning with Controllable High Confidence Guarantees via Adversarial Inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

Representation learning is increasingly applied to generate representations that generalize well across multiple downstream tasks. Ensuring fairness guarantees in representation learning is crucial to prevent unfairness toward specific demographic groups in downstream tasks. In this work, we formally introduce the task of learning representations that achieve high-confidence fairness. We aim to guarantee that demographic disparity in every downstream prediction remains bounded by a user-defined error threshold ฮต, with controllable high probability. To this end, we propose the Fair Representation learning with high-confidence Guarantees (FRG) framework, which provides these high-confidence fairness guarantees by leveraging an optimized adversarial model. We empirically evaluate FRG on three real-world datasets, comparing its performance to six state-of-the-art fair representation learning methods. Our results demonstrate that FRG consistently bounds unfairness across a range of downstream models and tasks. The source code for FRG is available at: https://github.com/JamesLuoyh/FRG.


Parallelizing MCMCAcross the Sequence Length

Neural Information Processing Systems

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are foundational algorithms for Bayesian inference and probabilistic modeling. However, most MCMC algorithms are inherently sequential and their time complexity scales linearly with the sequence length. Previous work on adapting MCMC to modern hardware has therefore focused on running many independent chains in parallel. Here, we take an alternative approach: we propose algorithms to evaluate MCMC samplers in parallel across the chain length. To do this, we build on recent methods for parallel evaluation of nonlinear recursions that formulate the state sequence as a solution to a fixed-point problem and solve for the fixed-point using a parallel form of Newton's method. We show how this approach can be used to parallelize Gibbs, Metropolis-adjusted Langevin, and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling across the sequence length. In several examples, we demonstrate the simulation of up to hundreds of thousands of MCMC samples with only tens of parallel Newton iterations. Additionally, we develop two new parallel quasi-Newton methods to evaluate nonlinear recursions with lower memory costs and reduced runtime. We find that the proposed parallel algorithms accelerate MCMC sampling across multiple examples, in some cases by more than an order of magnitude compared to sequential evaluation.


Tight High-Probability Bounds for Nonconvex Heavy-Tailed Scenario under Weaker Assumptions

Neural Information Processing Systems

Gradient clipping is increasingly important in centralized learning (CL) and federated learning (FL). Many works focus on its optimization properties under strong assumptions involving Gaussian noise and standard smoothness. However, practical machine learning tasks often only satisfy weaker conditions, such as heavy-tailed noise and (L0,L1)-smoothness. To bridge this gap, we propose a high-probability analysis for clipped Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) under these weaker assumptions. Our findings show a better convergence rate than existing ones can be achieved, and our high-probability analysis does not rely on the bounded gradient assumption. Moreover, we extend our analysis to FL, where a gap remains between expected and high-probability convergence, which the naive clipped SGD can not bridge. Thus, we design a new Federated Clipped Batched Gradient (FedCBG) algorithm, and prove the convergence and generalization bounds with high probability for the first time. Our analysis reveals the trade-offs between the optimization and generalization performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FedCBG can generalize better to unseen client distributions than state-of-the-art baselines.


Approximate Domain Unlearning for Vision-Language Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) exhibit strong generalization capabilities, enabling them to recognize a wide range of objects across diverse domains without additional training. However, they often retain irrelevant information beyond the requirements of specific target downstream tasks, raising concerns about computational efficiency and potential information leakage. This has motivated growing interest in approximate unlearning, which aims to selectively remove unnecessary knowledge while preserving overall model performance. Existing approaches to approximate unlearning have primarily focused on class unlearning, where a VLM is retrained to fail to recognize specified object classes while maintaining accuracy for others. However, merely forgetting object classes is often insufficient in practical applications.



Iterative Missing Data Imputation with Model Form Adaptation and Non-Missing Feature Supervision

Neural Information Processing Systems

Iterative imputation is a prevalent method for missing data imputation, where each feature is imputed iteratively by treating it as a target variable estimated from all other features. However, iterative imputation method suffers from two principal limitations: it imposes a single parametric model form to impute all features, neglecting the potential for optimal models to vary among features, which risks model misspecification; and it assumes every feature contains missing values, overlooking the potential presence of non-missing features, termed as oracle features, which are informative for imputation. To address these limitations, we propose kernel point imputation (KPI), a bi-level optimization framework for iterative missing data imputation. At the inner level, KPI adaptively learns the optimal model form for each feature within a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, addressing limitation . At the outer level, KPI utilizes oracle features as supervisory signals to iteratively refine the imputations, addressing limitation . Experiments demonstrate that KPI outperforms competitive imputation methods. Code is available at https://github.com/FMLYD/kpi.git.


OmniFC: Rethinking Federated Clustering via Lossless and Secure Distance Reconstruction

Neural Information Processing Systems

Federated clustering (FC) aims to discover global cluster structures across decentralized clients without sharing raw data, making privacy preservation a fundamental requirement. There are two critical challenges: (1) privacy leakage during collaboration, and (2) robustness degradation due to aggregation of proxy information from non-independent and identically distributed (Non-IID) local data, leading to inaccurate or inconsistent global clustering. Existing solutions typically rely on model-specific local proxies, which are sensitive to data heterogeneity and inherit inductive biases from their centralized counterparts, thus limiting robustness and generality. We propose Omni Federated Clustering (OmniFC), a unified and modelagnostic framework. Leveraging Lagrange coded computing, our method enables clients to share only encoded data, allowing exact reconstruction of the global distance matrix--a fundamental representation of sample relationships--without leaking private information, even under client collusion. This construction is naturally resilient to Non-IID data distributions. This approach decouples FC from model-specific proxies, providing a unified extension mechanism applicable to diverse centralized clustering methods. Theoretical analysis confirms both reconstruction fidelity and privacy guarantees, while comprehensive experiments demonstrate OmniFC's superior robustness, effectiveness, and generality across various benchmarks compared to state-of-the-art methods.