As artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning (ML) gain widespread adoption, practitioners are increasingly seeking means to quantify and control the risk these systems incur. This challenge is especially salient when such systems have autonomy to collect their own data, such as in black-box optimization and active learning, where their actions induce sequential feedback-loop shifts in the data distribution. Conformal prediction is a promising approach to uncertainty and risk quantification, but prior variants' validity guarantees have assumed some form of ``quasi-exchangeability'' on the data distribution, thereby excluding many types of sequential shifts. In this paper we prove that conformal prediction can theoretically be extended to \textit{any} joint data distribution, not just exchangeable or quasi-exchangeable ones. Although the most general case is exceedingly impractical to compute, for concrete practical applications we outline a procedure for deriving specific conformal algorithms for any data distribution, and we use this procedure to derive tractable algorithms for a series of AI/ML-agent-induced covariate shifts. We evaluate the proposed algorithms empirically on synthetic black-box optimization and active learning tasks.

Data visualization via dimensionality reduction is an important tool in exploratory data analysis. However, when the data are noisy, many existing methods fail to capture the underlying structure of the data. The method called Empirical Intrinsic Geometry (EIG) was previously proposed for performing dimensionality reduction on high dimensional dynamical processes while theoretically eliminating all noise. However, implementing EIG in practice requires the construction of high-dimensional histograms, which suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Here we propose a new data visualization method called Functional Information Geometry (FIG) for dynamical processes that adapts the EIG framework while using approaches from functional data analysis to mitigate the curse of dimensionality. We experimentally demonstrate that the resulting method outperforms a variant of EIG designed for visualization in terms of capturing the true structure, hyperparameter robustness, and computational speed. We then use our method to visualize EEG brain measurements of sleep activity.

In Data Assimilation, observations are fused with simulations to obtain an accurate estimate of the state and parameters for a given physical system. Combining data with a model, however, while accurately estimating uncertainty, is computationally expensive and infeasible to run in real-time for complex systems. Here, we present a novel particle filter methodology, the Deep Latent Space Particle filter or D-LSPF, that uses neural network-based surrogate models to overcome this computational challenge. The D-LSPF enables filtering in the low-dimensional latent space obtained using Wasserstein AEs with modified vision transformer layers for dimensionality reduction and transformers for parameterized latent space time stepping. As we demonstrate on three test cases, including leak localization in multi-phase pipe flow and seabed identification for fully nonlinear water waves, the D-LSPF runs orders of magnitude faster than a high-fidelity particle filter and 3-5 times faster than alternative methods while being up to an order of magnitude more accurate. The D-LSPF thus enables real-time data assimilation with uncertainty quantification for physical systems.

In this paper, we address the problem of uncertainty quantification for cellular network speed. It is a well-known fact that the actual internet speed experienced by a mobile phone can fluctuate significantly, even when remaining in a single location. This high degree of variability underscores that mere point estimation of network speed is insufficient. Rather, it is advantageous to establish a prediction interval that can encompass the expected range of speed variations. In order to build an accurate network estimation map, numerous mobile data need to be collected at different locations. Currently, public datasets rely on users to upload data through apps. Although massive data has been collected, the datasets suffer from significant noise due to the nature of cellular networks and various other factors. Additionally, the uneven distribution of population density affects the spatial consistency of data collection, leading to substantial uncertainty in the network quality maps derived from this data. We focus our analysis on large-scale internet-quality datasets provided by Ookla to construct an estimated map of connection quality. To improve the reliability of this map, we introduce a novel conformal prediction technique to build an uncertainty map. We identify regions with heightened uncertainty to prioritize targeted, manual data collection. In addition, the uncertainty map quantifies how reliable the prediction is in different areas. Our method also leads to a sampling strategy that guides researchers to selectively gather high-quality data that best complement the current dataset to improve the overall accuracy of the prediction model.

Financial organisations such as brokers face a significant challenge in servicing the investment needs of thousands of their traders worldwide. This task is further compounded since individual traders will have their own risk appetite and investment goals. Traders may look to capture short-term trends in the market which last only seconds to minutes, or they may have longer-term views which last several days to months. To reduce the complexity of this task, client trades can be clustered. By examining such clusters, we would likely observe many traders following common patterns of investment, but how do these patterns vary through time? Knowledge regarding the temporal distributions of such clusters may help financial institutions manage the overall portfolio of risk that accumulates from underlying trader positions. This study contributes to the field by demonstrating that the distribution of clusters derived from the real-world trades of 20k Foreign Exchange (FX) traders (from 2015 to 2017) is described in accordance with Ewens' Sampling Distribution. Further, we show that the Aggregating Algorithm (AA), an on-line prediction with expert advice algorithm, can be applied to the aforementioned real-world data in order to improve the returns of portfolios of trader risk. However we found that the AA 'struggles' when presented with too many trader ``experts'', especially when there are many trades with similar overall patterns. To help overcome this challenge, we have applied and compared the use of Statistically Validated Networks (SVN) with a hierarchical clustering approach on a subset of the data, demonstrating that both approaches can be used to significantly improve results of the AA in terms of profitability and smoothness of returns.

We introduce YOASOVI, an algorithm for performing fast, self-correcting stochastic optimization for Variational Inference (VI) on large Bayesian heirarchical models. To accomplish this, we take advantage of available information on the objective function used for stochastic VI at each iteration and replace regular Monte Carlo sampling with acceptance sampling. Rather than spend computational resources drawing and evaluating over a large sample for the gradient, we draw only one sample and accept it with probability proportional to the expected improvement in the objective. The following paper develops two versions of the algorithm: the first one based on a naive intuition, and another building up the algorithm as a Metropolis-type scheme. Empirical results based on simulations and benchmark datasets for multivariate Gaussian mixture models show that YOASOVI consistently converges faster (in clock time) and within better optimal neighborhoods than both regularized Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo VI algorithms.

Effective resistance is a distance between vertices of a graph that is both theoretically interesting and useful in applications. We study a variant of effective resistance called the biharmonic distance. While the effective resistance measures how well-connected two vertices are, we prove several theoretical results supporting the idea that the biharmonic distance measures how important an edge is to the global topology of the graph. Our theoretical results connect the biharmonic distance to well-known measures of connectivity of a graph like its total resistance and sparsity. Based on these results, we introduce two clustering algorithms using the biharmonic distance. Finally, we introduce a further generalization of the biharmonic distance that we call the $k$-harmonic distance. We empirically study the utility of biharmonic and $k$-harmonic distance for edge centrality and graph clustering.

Vertical Federated Learning (VFL) is a privacy-preserving distributed learning paradigm where different parties collaboratively learn models using partitioned features of shared samples, without leaking private data. Recent research has shown promising results addressing various challenges in VFL, highlighting its potential for practical applications in cross-domain collaboration. However, the corresponding research is scattered and lacks organization. To advance VFL research, this survey offers a systematic overview of recent developments. First, we provide a history and background introduction, along with a summary of the general training protocol of VFL. We then revisit the taxonomy in recent reviews and analyze limitations in-depth. For a comprehensive and structured discussion, we synthesize recent research from three fundamental perspectives: effectiveness, security, and applicability. Finally, we discuss several critical future research directions in VFL, which will facilitate the developments in this field. We provide a collection of research lists and periodically update them at https://github.com/shentt67/VFL_Survey.

Expansive Matching of Experts (EMOE) is a novel method that utilizes support-expanding, extrapolatory pseudo-labeling to improve prediction and uncertainty based rejection on out-of-distribution (OOD) points. We propose an expansive data augmentation technique that generates OOD instances in a latent space, and an empirical trial based approach to filter out augmented expansive points for pseudo-labeling. EMOE utilizes a diverse set of multiple base experts as pseudo-labelers on the augmented data to improve OOD performance through a shared MLP with multiple heads (one per expert). We demonstrate that EMOE achieves superior performance compared to state-of-the-art methods on tabular data.

In recent years, interest in gradient-based optimization over Riemannian manifolds has surged. However, a significant challenge lies in the reliance on hyperparameters, especially the learning rate, which requires meticulous tuning by practitioners to ensure convergence at a suitable rate. In this work, we introduce innovative learning-rate-free algorithms for stochastic optimization over Riemannian manifolds, eliminating the need for hand-tuning and providing a more robust and user-friendly approach. We establish high probability convergence guarantees that are optimal, up to logarithmic factors, compared to the best-known optimally tuned rate in the deterministic setting. Our approach is validated through numerical experiments, demonstrating competitive performance against learning-rate-dependent algorithms.