Despite the rise of mobile robot deployments in home and work settings, perceived safety of users and bystanders is understudied in the human-robot interaction (HRI) literature. To address this, we present a study designed to identify elements of a human-robot encounter that correlate with observed stress response. Stress is a key component of perceived safety and is strongly associated with human physiological response. In this study a Boston Dynamics Spot and a Unitree Go1 navigate autonomously through a shared environment occupied by human participants wearing multimodal physiological sensors to track their electrocardiography (ECG) and electrodermal activity (EDA). The encounters are varied through several trials and participants self-rate their stress levels after each encounter. The study resulted in a multidimensional dataset archiving various objective and subjective aspects of a human-robot encounter, containing insights for understanding perceived safety in such encounters. To this end, acute stress responses were decoded from the human participants' ECG and EDA and compared across different human-robot encounter conditions. Statistical analysis of data indicate that on average (1) participants feel more stress during encounters compared to baselines, (2) participants feel more stress encountering multiple robots compared to a single robot and (3) participants stress increases during navigation behavior compared with search behavior.

In-context learning has become a popular paradigm in natural language processing. However, its performance can be significantly influenced by the order of in-context demonstration examples. In this paper, we found that causal language models (CausalLMs) are more sensitive to this order compared to prefix language models (PrefixLMs). We attribute this phenomenon to the auto-regressive attention masks within CausalLMs, which restrict each token from accessing information from subsequent tokens. This results in different receptive fields for samples at different positions, thereby leading to representation disparities across positions. To tackle this challenge, we introduce an unsupervised fine-tuning method, termed the Information-Augmented and Consistency-Enhanced approach. This approach utilizes contrastive learning to align representations of in-context examples across different positions and introduces a consistency loss to ensure similar representations for inputs with different permutations. This enhances the model's predictive consistency across permutations. Experimental results on five benchmarks suggest that our proposed method can reduce the sensitivity of CausalLMs to the order of in-context examples and exhibit robust generalizability, particularly when demonstrations are sourced from a candidate pool different from that used in the training phase, or when the number of in-context examples differs from what is used during training.

We demonstrate a substantial gap between the privacy guarantees of the Adaptive Batch Linear Queries (ABLQ) mechanism under different types of batch sampling: (i) Shuffling, and (ii) Poisson subsampling; the typical analysis of Differentially Private Stochastic Gradient Descent (DP-SGD) follows by interpreting it as a post-processing of ABLQ. While shuffling-based DP-SGD is more commonly used in practical implementations, it has not been amenable to easy privacy analysis, either analytically or even numerically. On the other hand, Poisson subsampling-based DP-SGD is challenging to scalably implement, but has a well-understood privacy analysis, with multiple open-source numerically tight privacy accountants available. This has led to a common practice of using shuffling-based DP-SGD in practice, but using the privacy analysis for the corresponding Poisson subsampling version. Our result shows that there can be a substantial gap between the privacy analysis when using the two types of batch sampling, and thus advises caution in reporting privacy parameters for DP-SGD.

High-dimensional Bayesian optimization (BO) tasks such as molecular design often require > 10,000 function evaluations before obtaining meaningful results. While methods like sparse variational Gaussian processes (SVGPs) reduce computational requirements in these settings, the underlying approximations result in suboptimal data acquisitions that slow the progress of optimization. In this paper we modify SVGPs to better align with the goals of BO: targeting informed data acquisition rather than global posterior fidelity. Using the framework of utility-calibrated variational inference, we unify GP approximation and data acquisition into a joint optimization problem, thereby ensuring optimal decisions under a limited computational budget. Our approach can be used with any decision-theoretic acquisition function and is compatible with trust region methods like TuRBO. We derive efficient joint objectives for the expected improvement and knowledge gradient acquisition functions in both the standard and batch BO settings. Our approach outperforms standard SVGPs on high-dimensional benchmark tasks in control and molecular design.

This work presents the first large-scale neutral benchmark experiment focused on single-event, right-censored, low-dimensional survival data. Benchmark experiments are essential in methodological research to scientifically compare new and existing model classes through proper empirical evaluation. Existing benchmarks in the survival literature are often narrow in scope, focusing, for example, on high-dimensional data. Additionally, they may lack appropriate tuning or evaluation procedures, or are qualitative reviews, rather than quantitative comparisons. This comprehensive study aims to fill the gap by neutrally evaluating a broad range of methods and providing generalizable conclusions. We benchmark 18 models, ranging from classical statistical approaches to many common machine learning methods, on 32 publicly available datasets. The benchmark tunes for both a discrimination measure and a proper scoring rule to assess performance in different settings. Evaluating on 8 survival metrics, we assess discrimination, calibration, and overall predictive performance of the tested models. Using discrimination measures, we find that no method significantly outperforms the Cox model. However, (tuned) Accelerated Failure Time models were able to achieve significantly better results with respect to overall predictive performance as measured by the right-censored log-likelihood. Machine learning methods that performed comparably well include Oblique Random Survival Forests under discrimination, and Cox-based likelihood-boosting under overall predictive performance. We conclude that for predictive purposes in the standard survival analysis setting of low-dimensional, right-censored data, the Cox Proportional Hazards model remains a simple and robust method, sufficient for practitioners.

Stochastic gradient descent with momentum, also known as Stochastic Heavy Ball method (SHB), is one of the most popular algorithms for solving large-scale stochastic optimization problems in various machine learning tasks. In practical scenarios, tuning the step-size and momentum parameters of the method is a prohibitively expensive and time-consuming process. In this work, inspired by the recent advantages of stochastic Polyak step-size in the performance of stochastic gradient descent (SGD), we propose and explore new Polyak-type variants suitable for the update rule of the SHB method. In particular, using the Iterate Moving Average (IMA) viewpoint of SHB, we propose and analyze three novel step-size selections: MomSPS$_{\max}$, MomDecSPS, and MomAdaSPS. For MomSPS$_{\max}$, we provide convergence guarantees for SHB to a neighborhood of the solution for convex and smooth problems (without assuming interpolation). If interpolation is also satisfied, then using MomSPS$_{\max}$, SHB converges to the true solution at a fast rate matching the deterministic HB. The other two variants, MomDecSPS and MomAdaSPS, are the first adaptive step-sizes for SHB that guarantee convergence to the exact minimizer without prior knowledge of the problem parameters and without assuming interpolation. The convergence analysis of SHB is tight and obtains the convergence guarantees of SGD with stochastic Polyak step-sizes as a special case. We supplement our analysis with experiments that validate the theory and demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the new algorithms.

Prediction-powered inference (PPI) is a method that improves statistical estimates based on limited human-labeled data. PPI achieves this by combining small amounts of human-labeled data with larger amounts of data labeled by a reasonably accurate -- but potentially biased -- automatic system, in a way that results in tighter confidence intervals for certain parameters of interest (e.g., the mean performance of a language model). In this paper, we propose a method called Stratified Prediction-Powered Inference (StratPPI), in which we show that the basic PPI estimates can be considerably improved by employing simple data stratification strategies. Without making any assumptions on the underlying automatic labeling system or data distribution, we derive an algorithm for computing provably valid confidence intervals for population parameters (such as averages) that is based on stratified sampling. In particular, we show both theoretically and empirically that, with appropriate choices of stratification and sample allocation, our approach can provide substantially tighter confidence intervals than unstratified approaches. Specifically, StratPPI is expected to improve in cases where the performance of the autorater varies across different conditional distributions of the target data.

The diffusion bridge is a type of diffusion process that conditions on hitting a specific state within a finite time period. It has broad applications in fields such as Bayesian inference, financial mathematics, control theory, and shape analysis. However, simulating the diffusion bridge for natural data can be challenging due to both the intractability of the drift term and continuous representations of the data. Although several methods are available to simulate finite-dimensional diffusion bridges, infinite-dimensional cases remain unresolved. In the paper, we present a solution to this problem by merging score-matching techniques with operator learning, enabling a direct approach to score-matching for the infinite-dimensional bridge. We construct the score to be discretization invariant, which is natural given the underlying spatially continuous process. We conduct a series of experiments, ranging from synthetic examples with closed-form solutions to the stochastic nonlinear evolution of real-world biological shape data, and our method demonstrates high efficacy, particularly due to its ability to adapt to any resolution without extra training.

Weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models play a central role in solar energy forecasting, where a cascade of physics-based models is used in a model chain approach to convert forecasts of solar irradiance to solar power production, using additional weather variables as auxiliary information. Ensemble weather forecasts aim to quantify uncertainty in the future development of the weather, and can be used to propagate this uncertainty through the model chain to generate probabilistic solar energy predictions. However, ensemble prediction systems are known to exhibit systematic errors, and thus require post-processing to obtain accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts. The overarching aim of our study is to systematically evaluate different strategies to apply post-processing methods in model chain approaches: Not applying any post-processing at all; post-processing only the irradiance predictions before the conversion; post-processing only the solar power predictions obtained from the model chain; or applying post-processing in both steps. In a case study based on a benchmark dataset for the Jacumba solar plant in the U.S., we develop statistical and machine learning methods for post-processing ensemble predictions of global horizontal irradiance and solar power generation. Further, we propose a neural network-based model for direct solar power forecasting that bypasses the model chain. Our results indicate that post-processing substantially improves the solar power generation forecasts, in particular when post-processing is applied to the power predictions. The machine learning methods for post-processing yield slightly better probabilistic forecasts, and the direct forecasting approach performs comparable to the post-processing strategies.

Scaling hyperparameter optimisation to very large datasets remains an open problem in the Gaussian process community. This paper focuses on iterative methods, which use linear system solvers, like conjugate gradients, alternating projections or stochastic gradient descent, to construct an estimate of the marginal likelihood gradient. We discuss three key improvements which are applicable across solvers: (i) a pathwise gradient estimator, which reduces the required number of solver iterations and amortises the computational cost of making predictions, (ii) warm starting linear system solvers with the solution from the previous step, which leads to faster solver convergence at the cost of negligible bias, (iii) early stopping linear system solvers after a limited computational budget, which synergises with warm starting, allowing solver progress to accumulate over multiple marginal likelihood steps. These techniques provide speed-ups of up to $72\times$ when solving to tolerance, and decrease the average residual norm by up to $7\times$ when stopping early.