Conformal prediction offers a practical framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification, providing finite-sample coverage guarantees under relatively mild assumptions on data exchangeability. However, these assumptions cease to hold for time series due to their temporally correlated nature. In this work, we present a novel use of conformal prediction for time series forecasting that incorporates time series decomposition. This approach allows us to model different temporal components individually. By applying specific conformal algorithms to each component and then merging the obtained prediction intervals, we customize our methods to account for the different exchangeability regimes underlying each component. Our decomposition-based approach is thoroughly discussed and empirically evaluated on synthetic and real-world data. We find that the method provides promising results on well-structured time series, but can be limited by factors such as the decomposition step for more complex data.

We consider learning in an adversarial environment, where an $\varepsilon$-fraction of samples from a distribution $P$ are arbitrarily modified (global corruptions) and the remaining perturbations have average magnitude bounded by $\rho$ (local corruptions). Given access to $n$ such corrupted samples, we seek a computationally efficient estimator $\hat{P}_n$ that minimizes the Wasserstein distance $\mathsf{W}_1(\hat{P}_n,P)$. In fact, we attack the fine-grained task of minimizing $\mathsf{W}_1(\Pi_\# \hat{P}_n, \Pi_\# P)$ for all orthogonal projections $\Pi \in \mathbb{R}^{d \times d}$, with performance scaling with $\mathrm{rank}(\Pi) = k$. This allows us to account simultaneously for mean estimation ($k=1$), distribution estimation ($k=d$), as well as the settings interpolating between these two extremes. We characterize the optimal population-limit risk for this task and then develop an efficient finite-sample algorithm with error bounded by $\sqrt{\varepsilon k} + \rho + \tilde{O}(d\sqrt{k}n^{-1/(k \lor 2)})$ when $P$ has bounded covariance. This guarantee holds uniformly in $k$ and is minimax optimal up to the sub-optimality of the plug-in estimator when $\rho = \varepsilon = 0$. Our efficient procedure relies on a novel trace norm approximation of an ideal yet intractable 2-Wasserstein projection estimator. We apply this algorithm to robust stochastic optimization, and, in the process, uncover a new method for overcoming the curse of dimensionality in Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization.

We propose a novel approach for estimating conditional or parametric expectations in the setting where obtaining samples or evaluating integrands is costly. Through the framework of probabilistic numerical methods (such as Bayesian quadrature), our novel approach allows to incorporates prior information about the integrands especially the prior smoothness knowledge about the integrands and the conditional expectation. As a result, our approach provides a way of quantifying uncertainty and leads to a fast convergence rate, which is confirmed both theoretically and empirically on challenging tasks in Bayesian sensitivity analysis, computational finance and decision making under uncertainty.

Traditional methods for point forecasting in univariate random walks often fail to surpass naive benchmarks due to data unpredictability. This study introduces a novel forecasting method that fuses movement prediction (binary classification) with naive forecasts for accurate one-step-ahead point forecasting. The method's efficacy is demonstrated through theoretical analysis, simulations, and real-world data experiments. It reliably exceeds naive forecasts with movement prediction accuracies as low as 0.55, outperforming baseline models like ARIMA, linear regression, MLP, and LSTM networks in forecasting the S\&P 500 index and Bitcoin prices. This method is particularly advantageous when accurate point predictions are challenging but accurate movement predictions are attainable, translating movement predictions into point forecasts in random walk contexts.

Fox News Flash top sports headlines are here. Check out what's clicking on Foxnews.com. Oakland Athletics reliever Sean Newcomb recorded his first win of the year on Friday night with zero batters faced. So, how did he do it? With the A's tied at 5 against the Minnesota Twins with two outs in the eighth inning and a man on first, Newcomb entered the game from the bullpen.

Many optimization problems are inherently multi-objective. To address them, we formalize Jacobian descent (JD), a direct generalization of gradient descent for vector-valued functions. Each step of this algorithm relies on a Jacobian matrix consisting of one gradient per objective. The aggregator, responsible for reducing this matrix into an update vector, characterizes JD. While the multi-task learning literature already contains a variety of aggregators, they often lack some natural properties. In particular, the update should not conflict with any objective and should scale proportionally to the norm of each gradient. We propose a new aggregator specifically designed to satisfy this. Emphasizing conflict between objectives, we then highlight direct applications for our methods. Most notably, we introduce instance-wise risk minimization (IWRM), a learning paradigm in which the loss of each training example is considered a separate objective. On simple image classification tasks, IWRM exhibits promising results compared to the direct minimization of the average loss. The performance of our aggregator in those experiments also corroborates our theoretical findings. Lastly, as speed is the main limitation of JD, we provide a path towards a more efficient implementation.

In the context of machine unlearning, the primary challenge lies in effectively removing traces of private data from trained models while maintaining model performance and security against privacy attacks like membership inference attacks. Traditional gradient-based unlearning methods often rely on extensive historical gradients, which becomes impractical with high unlearning ratios and may reduce the effectiveness of unlearning. Addressing these limitations, we introduce Mini-Unlearning, a novel approach that capitalizes on a critical observation: unlearned parameters correlate with retrained parameters through contraction mapping. Our method, Mini-Unlearning, utilizes a minimal subset of historical gradients and leverages this contraction mapping to facilitate scalable, efficient unlearning. This lightweight, scalable method significantly enhances model accuracy and strengthens resistance to membership inference attacks. Our experiments demonstrate that Mini-Unlearning not only works under higher unlearning ratios but also outperforms existing techniques in both accuracy and security, offering a promising solution for applications requiring robust unlearning capabilities.

We propose a novel time window-based analysis technique to investigate the convergence properties of the stochastic gradient descent method with momentum (SGDM) in nonconvex settings. Despite its popularity, the convergence behavior of SGDM remains less understood in nonconvex scenarios. This is primarily due to the absence of a sufficient descent property and challenges in simultaneously controlling the momentum and stochastic errors in an almost sure sense. To address these challenges, we investigate the behavior of SGDM over specific time windows, rather than examining the descent of consecutive iterates as in traditional studies. This time window-based approach simplifies the convergence analysis and enables us to establish the first iterate convergence result for SGDM under the Kurdyka-Lojasiewicz (KL) property. We further provide local convergence rates which depend on the underlying KL exponent and the utilized step size schemes.

Numerous studies have demonstrated the manifold benefits of tennis, such as increasing overall physical and mental health. Unfortunately, many children and youth from low-income families are unable to engage in this sport mainly due to financial constraints such as private lesson expenses as well as logistical concerns to and back from such lessons and clinics. While several tennis self-training systems exist, they are often tailored for professionals and are prohibitively expensive. The present study aims to classify tennis players' skill levels and classify tennis strokes into phases characterized by motion attributes for a future development of an AI-based tennis self-training model for affordable and convenient applications running on devices used in daily life such as an iPhone or an Apple Watch for tennis skill improvement. We collected motion data, including Motion Yaw, Roll and Pitch from inertial measurement units (IMUs) worn by participating junior tennis players. For this pilot study, data from twelve participants were processed using Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms. The SVM models demonstrated an overall accuracy of 77% in classifying players as beginners or intermediates, with low rates of false positives and false negatives, effectively distinguishing skill levels. Additionally, the tennis swings were successfully classified into five phases based on the collected motion data. These findings indicate that SVM-based classification can be a reliable foundation for developing an equitable and accessible AI-driven tennis training system.

This paper investigates the optimization of 2D and 3D composite structures using machine learning (ML) techniques, focusing on fracture toughness and crack propagation in the Double Cantilever Beam (DCB) test. By exploring the intricate relationship between microstructural arrangements and macroscopic properties of composites, the study demonstrates the potential of ML as a powerful tool to expedite the design optimization process, offering notable advantages over traditional finite element analysis. The research encompasses four distinct cases, examining crack propagation and fracture toughness in both 2D and 3D composite models. Through the application of ML algorithms, the study showcases the capability for rapid and accurate exploration of vast design spaces in composite materials. The findings highlight the efficiency of ML in predicting mechanical behaviors with limited training data, paving the way for broader applications in composite design and optimization. This work contributes to advancing the understanding of ML's role in enhancing the efficiency of composite material design processes.