Data Shapley provides a principled framework for attributing data's contribution within machine learning contexts. However, existing approaches require re-training models on different data subsets, which is computationally intensive, foreclosing their application to large-scale models. Furthermore, they produce the same attribution score for any models produced by running the learning algorithm, meaning they cannot perform targeted attribution towards a specific model obtained from a single run of the algorithm. This paper introduces In-Run Data Shapley, which addresses these limitations by offering scalable data attribution for a target model of interest. In its most efficient implementation, our technique incurs negligible additional runtime compared to standard model training. This dramatic efficiency improvement makes it possible to perform data attribution for the foundation model pretraining stage for the first time. We present several case studies that offer fresh insights into pretraining data's contribution and discuss their implications for copyright in generative AI and pretraining data curation.

International Journal of Forecasting, 2024.], a generalised exponential smoothing model was proposed that is able to capture strong trends and volatility in time series. This method achieved state-of-the-art performance in many forecasting tasks, but its fitting proce dure, which is based on the NUTS sampler, is very computationally expensive. In this work, w e propose several modifications to the original model, as well as a bespoke Gibbs sampler for p osterior exploration; these changes improve sampling time by an order of magnitude, thus rendering the model much more practically relevant. The new model, and sampler, are evalu ated on the M3 dataset and are shown to be competitive, or superior, in terms of accuracy to the original method, while being substantially faster to run.

In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) has deeply impacted various fields, including Earth system sciences. Here, AI improved weather forecasting, model emulation, parameter estimation, and the prediction of extreme events. However, the latter comes with specific challenges, such as developing accurate predictors from noisy, heterogeneous and limited annotated data. This paper reviews how AI is being used to analyze extreme events (like floods, droughts, wildfires and heatwaves), highlighting the importance of creating accurate, transparent, and reliable AI models. We discuss the hurdles of dealing with limited data, integrating information in real-time, deploying models, and making them understandable, all crucial for gaining the trust of stakeholders and meeting regulatory needs. We provide an overview of how AI can help identify and explain extreme events more effectively, improving disaster response and communication. We emphasize the need for collaboration across different fields to create AI solutions that are practical, understandable, and trustworthy for analyzing and predicting extreme events. Such collaborative efforts aim to enhance disaster readiness and disaster risk reduction.

A new particle-based sampling and approximate inference method, based on electrostatics and Newton mechanics principles, is introduced with theoretical ground, algorithm design and experimental validation. This method simulates an interacting particle system (IPS) where particles, i.e. the freely-moving negative charges and spatially-fixed positive charges with magnitudes proportional to the target distribution, interact with each other via attraction and repulsion induced by the resulting electric fields described by Poisson's equation. The IPS evolves towards a steady-state where the distribution of negative charges conforms to the target distribution. This physics-inspired method offers deterministic, gradient-free sampling and inference, achieving comparable performance as other particle-based and MCMC methods in benchmark tasks of inferring complex densities, Bayesian logistic regression and dynamical system identification. A discrete-time, discrete-space algorithmic design, readily extendable to continuous time and space, is provided for usage in more general inference problems occurring in probabilistic machine learning scenarios such as Bayesian inference, generative modelling, and beyond.

Enhancing the sparsity of data-driven reduced-order models (ROMs) has gained increasing attention in recent years. In this work, we analyze an efficient approach to identifying skillful ROMs with a sparse structure using an information-theoretic indicator called causation entropy. The causation entropy quantifies in a statistical way the additional contribution of each term to the underlying dynamics beyond the information already captured by all the other terms in the ansatz. By doing so, the causation entropy assesses the importance of each term to the dynamics before a parameter estimation procedure is performed. Thus, the approach can be utilized to eliminate terms with little dynamic impact, leading to a parsimonious structure that retains the essential physics. To circumvent the difficulty of estimating high-dimensional probability density functions (PDFs) involved in the causation entropy computation, we leverage Gaussian approximations for such PDFs, which are demonstrated to be sufficient even in the presence of highly non-Gaussian dynamics. The effectiveness of the approach is illustrated by the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation by building sparse causation-based ROMs for various purposes, such as recovering long-term statistics and inferring unobserved dynamics via data assimilation with partial observations.

Brain tumors are one of the most common diseases that lead to early death if not diagnosed at an early stage. Traditional diagnostic approaches are extremely time-consuming and prone to errors. In this context, computer vision-based approaches have emerged as an effective tool for accurate brain tumor classification. While some of the existing solutions demonstrate noteworthy accuracy, the models become infeasible to deploy in areas where computational resources are limited. This research addresses the need for accurate and fast classification of brain tumors with a priority of deploying the model in technologically underdeveloped regions. The research presents a novel architecture for precise brain tumor classification fusing pretrained ResNet152V2 and modified VGG16 models. The proposed architecture undergoes a diligent fine-tuning process that ensures fine gradients are preserved in deep neural networks, which are essential for effective brain tumor classification. The proposed solution incorporates various image processing techniques to improve image quality and achieves an astounding accuracy of 98.36% and 98.04% in Figshare and Kaggle datasets respectively. This architecture stands out for having a streamlined profile, with only 2.8 million trainable parameters. We have leveraged 8-bit quantization to produce a model of size 73.881 MB, significantly reducing it from the previous size of 289.45 MB, ensuring smooth deployment in edge devices even in resource-constrained areas. Additionally, the use of Grad-CAM improves the interpretability of the model, offering insightful information regarding its decision-making process. Owing to its high discriminative ability, this model can be a reliable option for accurate brain tumor classification.

Frontier AI systems, including large language models (LLMs), hold increasing influence over the epistemology of human users. Such influence can reinforce prevailing societal values, potentially contributing to the lock-in of misguided moral beliefs and, consequently, the perpetuation of problematic moral practices on a broad scale. We introduce progress alignment as a technical solution to mitigate this imminent risk. Progress alignment algorithms learn to emulate the mechanics of human moral progress, thereby addressing the susceptibility of existing alignment methods to contemporary moral blindspots. To empower research in progress alignment, we introduce ProgressGym, an experimental framework allowing the learning of moral progress mechanics from history, in order to facilitate future progress in real-world moral decisions. Leveraging 9 centuries of historical text and 18 historical LLMs, ProgressGym enables codification of real-world progress alignment challenges into concrete benchmarks. Specifically, we introduce three core challenges: tracking evolving values (PG-Follow), preemptively anticipating moral progress (PG-Predict), and regulating the feedback loop between human and AI value shifts (PG-Coevolve). Alignment methods without a temporal dimension are inapplicable to these tasks. In response, we present lifelong and extrapolative algorithms as baseline methods of progress alignment, and build an open leaderboard soliciting novel algorithms and challenges. The framework and the leaderboard are available at https://github.com/PKU-Alignment/ProgressGym and https://huggingface.co/spaces/PKU-Alignment/ProgressGym-LeaderBoard respectively.

Topic models are widely used to analyze document collections. While they are valuable for discovering latent topics in a corpus when analysts are unfamiliar with the corpus, analysts also commonly start with an understanding of the content present in a corpus. This may be through categories obtained from an initial pass over the corpus or a desire to analyze the corpus through a predefined set of categories derived from a high level theoretical framework (e.g. political ideology). In these scenarios analysts desire a topic modeling approach which incorporates their understanding of the corpus while supporting various forms of interaction with the model. In this work, we present EdTM, as an approach for label name supervised topic modeling. EdTM models topic modeling as an assignment problem while leveraging LM/LLM based document-topic affinities and using optimal transport for making globally coherent topic-assignments. In experiments, we show the efficacy of our framework compared to few-shot LLM classifiers, and topic models based on clustering and LDA. Further, we show EdTM's ability to incorporate various forms of analyst feedback and while remaining robust to noisy analyst inputs.

Source Code Authorship Attribution (SCAA) is crucial for software classification because it provides insights into the origin and behavior of software. By accurately identifying the author or group behind a piece of code, experts can better understand the motivations and techniques of developers. In the cybersecurity era, this attribution helps trace the source of malicious software, identify patterns in the code that may indicate specific threat actors or groups, and ultimately enhance threat intelligence and mitigation strategies. This paper presents AuthAttLyzer-V2, a new source code feature extractor for SCAA, focusing on lexical, semantic, syntactic, and N-gram features. Our research explores author identification in C++ by examining 24,000 source code samples from 3,000 authors. Our methodology integrates Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost models, enhanced with SHAP for interpretability. The study demonstrates how ensemble models can effectively discern individual coding styles, offering insights into the unique attributes of code authorship. This approach is pivotal in understanding and interpreting complex patterns in authorship attribution, especially for malware classification.

The multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) genre has gained significant popularity and economic success, attracting considerable research interest within the Human-Computer Interaction community. Enhancing the gaming experience requires a deep understanding of player behavior, and a crucial aspect of MOBA games is matchmaking, which aims to assemble teams of comparable skill levels. However, existing matchmaking systems often neglect important factors such as players' position preferences and team assignment, resulting in imbalanced matches and reduced player satisfaction. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a novel framework called CUPID, which introduces a novel process called ``re-matchmaking'' to optimize team and position assignments to improve both fairness and player satisfaction. CUPID incorporates a pre-filtering step to ensure a minimum level of matchmaking quality, followed by a pre-match win-rate prediction model that evaluates the fairness of potential assignments. By simultaneously considering players' position satisfaction and game fairness, CUPID aims to provide an enhanced matchmaking experience. Extensive experiments were conducted on two large-scale, real-world MOBA datasets to validate the effectiveness of CUPID. The results surpass all existing state-of-the-art baselines, with an average relative improvement of 7.18% in terms of win prediction accuracy. Furthermore, CUPID has been successfully deployed in a popular online mobile MOBA game. The deployment resulted in significant improvements in match fairness and player satisfaction, as evidenced by critical Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) metrics covering usability, accessibility, and engagement, observed through A/B testing. To the best of our knowledge, CUPID is the first re-matchmaking system designed specifically for large-scale MOBA games.