Statistical Learning
Topology Reorganized Graph Contrastive Learning with Mitigating Semantic Drift
Zhang, Jiaqiang, Chen, Songcan
Graph contrastive learning (GCL) is an effective paradigm for node representation learning in graphs. The key components hidden behind GCL are data augmentation and positive-negative pair selection. Typical data augmentations in GCL, such as uniform deletion of edges, are generally blind and resort to local perturbation, which is prone to producing under-diversity views. Additionally, there is a risk of making the augmented data traverse to other classes. Moreover, most methods always treat all other samples as negatives. Such a negative pairing naturally results in sampling bias and likewise may make the learned representation suffer from semantic drift. Therefore, to increase the diversity of the contrastive view, we propose two simple and effective global topological augmentations to compensate current GCL. One is to mine the semantic correlation between nodes in the feature space. The other is to utilize the algebraic properties of the adjacency matrix to characterize the topology by eigen-decomposition. With the help of both, we can retain important edges to build a better view. To reduce the risk of semantic drift, a prototype-based negative pair selection is further designed which can filter false negative samples. Extensive experiments on various tasks demonstrate the advantages of the model compared to the state-of-the-art methods.
Stochastic Variance-Reduced Iterative Hard Thresholding in Graph Sparsity Optimization
Fox, Derek, Hernandez, Samuel, Tong, Qianqian
Stochastic optimization algorithms are widely used for large-scale data analysis due to their low per-iteration costs, but they often suffer from slow asymptotic convergence caused by inherent variance. Variance-reduced techniques have been therefore used to address this issue in structured sparse models utilizing sparsity-inducing norms or $\ell_0$-norms. However, these techniques are not directly applicable to complex (non-convex) graph sparsity models, which are essential in applications like disease outbreak monitoring and social network analysis. In this paper, we introduce two stochastic variance-reduced gradient-based methods to solve graph sparsity optimization: GraphSVRG-IHT and GraphSCSG-IHT. We provide a general framework for theoretical analysis, demonstrating that our methods enjoy a linear convergence speed. Extensive experiments validate
STATE: A Robust ATE Estimator of Heavy-Tailed Metrics for Variance Reduction in Online Controlled Experiments
Zhou, Hao, Sun, Kun, Li, Shaoming, Fan, Yangfeng, Jiang, Guibin, Zheng, Jiaqi, Li, Tao
Online controlled experiments play a crucial role in enabling data-driven decisions across a wide range of companies. Variance reduction is an effective technique to improve the sensitivity of experiments, achieving higher statistical power while using fewer samples and shorter experimental periods. However, typical variance reduction methods (e.g., regression-adjusted estimators) are built upon the intuitional assumption of Gaussian distributions and cannot properly characterize the real business metrics with heavy-tailed distributions. Furthermore, outliers diminish the correlation between pre-experiment covariates and outcome metrics, greatly limiting the effectiveness of variance reduction. In this paper, we develop a novel framework that integrates the Student's t-distribution with machine learning tools to fit heavy-tailed metrics and construct a robust average treatment effect estimator in online controlled experiments, which we call STATE. By adopting a variational EM method to optimize the loglikehood function, we can infer a robust solution that greatly eliminates the negative impact of outliers and achieves significant variance reduction. Moreover, we extend the STATE method from count metrics to ratio metrics by utilizing linear transformation that preserves unbiased estimation, whose variance reduction is more complex but less investigated in existing works. Finally, both simulations on synthetic data and long-term empirical results on Meituan experiment platform demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. Compared with the state-of-the-art estimators (CUPAC/MLRATE), STATE achieves over 50% variance reduction, indicating it can reach the same statistical power with only half of the observations, or half the experimental duration.
Assessing In-context Learning and Fine-tuning for Topic Classification of German Web Data
Schelb, Julian, Ulloa, Roberto, Spitz, Andreas
Researchers in the political and social sciences often rely on classification models to analyze trends in information consumption by examining browsing histories of millions of webpages. Automated scalable methods are necessary due to the impracticality of manual labeling. In this paper, we model the detection of topic-related content as a binary classification task and compare the accuracy of fine-tuned pre-trained encoder models against in-context learning strategies. Using only a few hundred annotated data points per topic, we detect content related to three German policies in a database of scraped webpages. We compare multilingual and monolingual models, as well as zero and few-shot approaches, and investigate the impact of negative sampling strategies and the combination of URL & content-based features. Our results show that a small sample of annotated data is sufficient to train an effective classifier. Fine-tuning encoder-based models yields better results than in-context learning. Classifiers using both URL & content-based features perform best, while using URLs alone provides adequate results when content is unavailable.
Data-Driven Optimal Feedback Laws via Kernel Mean Embeddings
Bevanda, Petar, Hoischen, Nicolas, Sosnowski, Stefan, Hirche, Sandra, Houska, Boris
This paper proposes a fully data-driven approach for optimal control of nonlinear control-affine systems represented by a stochastic diffusion. The focus is on the scenario where both the nonlinear dynamics and stage cost functions are unknown, while only control penalty function and constraints are provided. Leveraging the theory of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, we introduce novel kernel mean embeddings (KMEs) to identify the Markov transition operators associated with controlled diffusion processes. The KME learning approach seamlessly integrates with modern convex operator-theoretic Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman recursions. Thus, unlike traditional dynamic programming methods, our approach exploits the ``kernel trick'' to break the curse of dimensionality. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through numerical examples, highlighting its ability to solve a large class of nonlinear optimal control problems.
TimeInf: Time Series Data Contribution via Influence Functions
Zhang, Yizi, Shen, Jingyan, Xiong, Xiaoxue, Kwon, Yongchan
Evaluating the contribution of individual data points to a model's prediction is critical for interpreting model predictions and improving model performance. Existing data contribution methods have been applied to various data types, including tabular data, images, and texts; however, their primary focus has been on i.i.d. settings. Despite the pressing need for principled approaches tailored to time series datasets, the problem of estimating data contribution in such settings remains unexplored, possibly due to challenges associated with handling inherent temporal dependencies. This paper introduces TimeInf, a data contribution estimation method for time-series datasets. TimeInf uses influence functions to attribute model predictions to individual time points while preserving temporal structures. Our extensive empirical results demonstrate that TimeInf outperforms state-of-the-art methods in identifying harmful anomalies and helpful time points for forecasting. Additionally, TimeInf offers intuitive and interpretable attributions of data values, allowing us to easily distinguish diverse anomaly patterns through visualizations.
Provable Benefit of Annealed Langevin Monte Carlo for Non-log-concave Sampling
Guo, Wei, Tao, Molei, Chen, Yongxin
We address the outstanding problem of sampling from an unnormalized density that may be non-log-concave and multimodal. To enhance the performance of simple Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, techniques of annealing type have been widely used. However, quantitative theoretical guarantees of these techniques are under-explored. This study takes a first step toward providing a non-asymptotic analysis of annealed MCMC. Specifically, we establish, for the first time, an oracle complexity of $\widetilde{O}\left(\frac{d\beta^2{\cal A}^2}{\varepsilon^6}\right)$ for simple annealed Langevin Monte Carlo algorithm to achieve $\varepsilon^2$ accuracy in Kullback-Leibler divergence to the target distribution $\pi\propto{\rm e}^{-V}$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$ with $\beta$-smooth potential $V$. Here, ${\cal A}$ represents the action of a curve of probability measures interpolating the target distribution $\pi$ and a readily sampleable distribution.
A Geometry-Aware Algorithm to Learn Hierarchical Embeddings in Hyperbolic Space
Wang, Zhangyu, Xu, Lantian, Kong, Zhifeng, Wang, Weilong, Peng, Xuyu, Zheng, Enyang
Hyperbolic embeddings are a class of representation learning methods that offer competitive performances when data can be abstracted as a tree-like graph. However, in practice, learning hyperbolic embeddings of hierarchical data is difficult due to the different geometry between hyperbolic space and the Euclidean space. To address such difficulties, we first categorize three kinds of illness that harm the performance of the embeddings. Then, we develop a geometry-aware algorithm using a dilation operation and a transitive closure regularization to tackle these illnesses. We empirically validate these techniques and present a theoretical analysis of the mechanism behind the dilation operation. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets reveal superior performances of our algorithm.
Spurious Correlations in Concept Drift: Can Explanatory Interaction Help?
Lalletti, Cristiana, Teso, Stefano
Long-running machine learning models face the issue of concept drift (CD), whereby the data distribution changes over time, compromising prediction performance. Updating the model requires detecting drift by monitoring the data and/or the model for unexpected changes. We show that, however, spurious correlations (SCs) can spoil the statistics tracked by detection algorithms. Motivated by this, we introduce ebc-exstream, a novel detector that leverages model explanations to identify potential SCs and human feedback to correct for them. It leverages an entropy-based heuristic to reduce the amount of necessary feedback, cutting annotation costs. Our preliminary experiments on artificially confounded data highlight the promise of ebc-exstream for reducing the impact of SCs on detection.
BONES: a Benchmark fOr Neural Estimation of Shapley values
Napolitano, Davide, Cagliero, Luca
Shapley Values are concepts established for eXplainable AI. They are used to explain black-box predictive models by quantifying the features' contributions to the model's outcomes. Since computing the exact Shapley Values is known to be computationally intractable on real-world datasets, neural estimators have emerged as alternative, more scalable approaches to get approximated Shapley Values estimates. However, experiments with neural estimators are currently hard to replicate as algorithm implementations, explainer evaluators, and results visualizations are neither standardized nor promptly usable. To bridge this gap, we present BONES, a new benchmark focused on neural estimation of Shapley Value. It provides researchers with a suite of state-of-the-art neural and traditional estimators, a set of commonly used benchmark datasets, ad hoc modules for training black-box models, as well as specific functions to easily compute the most popular evaluation metrics and visualize results. The purpose is to simplify XAI model usage, evaluation, and comparison. In this paper, we showcase BONES results and visualizations for XAI model benchmarking on both tabular and image data. The open-source library is available at the following link: https://github.com/DavideNapolitano/BONES.