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 Statistical Learning


Physics-guided machine learning predicts the planet-scale performance of solar farms with sparse, heterogeneous, public data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The photovoltaics (PV) technology landscape is evolving rapidly. To predict the potential and scalability of emerging PV technologies, a global understanding of these systems' performance is essential. Traditionally, experimental and computational studies at large national research facilities have focused on PV performance in specific regional climates. However, synthesizing these regional studies to understand the worldwide performance potential has proven difficult. Given the expense of obtaining experimental data, the challenge of coordinating experiments at national labs across a politically-divided world, and the data-privacy concerns of large commercial operators, however, a fundamentally different, data-efficient approach is desired. Here, we present a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) scheme to demonstrate that: (a) The world can be divided into a few PV-specific climate zones, called PVZones, illustrating that the relevant meteorological conditions are shared across continents; (b) by exploiting the climatic similarities, high-quality monthly energy yield data from as few as five locations can accurately predict yearly energy yield potential with high spatial resolution and a root mean square error of less than 8 kWhm$^{2}$, and (c) even with noisy, heterogeneous public PV performance data, the global energy yield can be predicted with less than 6% relative error compared to physics-based simulations provided that the dataset is representative. This PGML scheme is agnostic to PV technology and farm topology, making it adaptable to new PV technologies or farm configurations. The results encourage physics-guided, data-driven collaboration among national policymakers and research organizations to build efficient decision support systems for accelerated PV qualification and deployment across the world.


Sparse Incremental Aggregation in Multi-Hop Federated Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper investigates federated learning (FL) in a multi-hop communication setup, such as in constellations with inter-satellite links. In this setup, part of the FL clients are responsible for forwarding other client's results to the parameter server. Instead of using conventional routing, the communication efficiency can be improved significantly by using in-network model aggregation at each intermediate hop, known as incremental aggregation (IA). Prior works [1] have indicated diminishing gains for IA under gradient sparsification. Here we study this issue and propose several novel correlated sparsification methods for IA. Numerical results show that, for some of these algorithms, the full potential of IA is still available under sparsification without impairing convergence. We demonstrate a 15x improvement in communication efficiency over conventional routing and a 11x improvement over state-of-the-art (SoA) sparse IA.


IsUMap: Manifold Learning and Data Visualization leveraging Vietoris-Rips filtrations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work introduces IsUMap, a novel manifold learning technique that enhances data representation by integrating aspects of UMAP and Isomap with Vietoris-Rips filtrations. We present a systematic and detailed construction of a metric representation for locally distorted metric spaces that captures complex data structures more accurately than the previous schemes. Our approach addresses limitations in existing methods by accommodating non-uniform data distributions and intricate local geometries. We validate its performance through extensive experiments on examples of various geometric objects and benchmark real-world datasets, demonstrating significant improvements in representation quality.


Weighted Risk Invariance: Domain Generalization under Invariant Feature Shift

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning models whose predictions are invariant under multiple environments is a promising approach for out-of-distribution generalization. Such models are trained to extract features $X_{\text{inv}}$ where the conditional distribution $Y \mid X_{\text{inv}}$ of the label given the extracted features does not change across environments. Invariant models are also supposed to generalize to shifts in the marginal distribution $p(X_{\text{inv}})$ of the extracted features $X_{\text{inv}}$, a type of shift we call an $\textit{invariant covariate shift}$. However, we show that proposed methods for learning invariant models underperform under invariant covariate shift, either failing to learn invariant models$\unicode{x2014}$even for data generated from simple and well-studied linear-Gaussian models$\unicode{x2014}$or having poor finite-sample performance. To alleviate these problems, we propose $\textit{weighted risk invariance}$ (WRI). Our framework is based on imposing invariance of the loss across environments subject to appropriate reweightings of the training examples. We show that WRI provably learns invariant models, i.e. discards spurious correlations, in linear-Gaussian settings. We propose a practical algorithm to implement WRI by learning the density $p(X_{\text{inv}})$ and the model parameters simultaneously, and we demonstrate empirically that WRI outperforms previous invariant learning methods under invariant covariate shift.


An Iterative Approach to Topic Modelling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Topic modelling has become increasingly popular for summarizing text data, such as social media posts and articles. However, topic modelling is usually completed in one shot. Assessing the quality of resulting topics is challenging. No effective methods or measures have been developed for assessing the results or for making further enhancements to the topics. In this research, we propose we propose to use an iterative process to perform topic modelling that gives rise to a sense of completeness of the resulting topics when the process is complete. Using the BERTopic package, a popular method in topic modelling, we demonstrate how the modelling process can be applied iteratively to arrive at a set of topics that could not be further improved upon using one of the three selected measures for clustering comparison as the decision criteria. This demonstration is conducted using a subset of the COVIDSenti-A dataset. The early success leads us to believe that further research using in using this approach in conjunction with other topic modelling algorithms could be viable.


Self-Supervision Improves Diffusion Models for Tabular Data Imputation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The ubiquity of missing data has sparked considerable attention and focus on tabular data imputation methods. Diffusion models, recognized as the cutting-edge technique for data generation, demonstrate significant potential in tabular data imputation tasks. However, in pursuit of diversity, vanilla diffusion models often exhibit sensitivity to initialized noises, which hinders the models from generating stable and accurate imputation results. Additionally, the sparsity inherent in tabular data poses challenges for diffusion models in accurately modeling the data manifold, impacting the robustness of these models for data imputation. To tackle these challenges, this paper introduces an advanced diffusion model named Self-supervised imputation Diffusion Model (SimpDM for brevity), specifically tailored for tabular data imputation tasks. To mitigate sensitivity to noise, we introduce a self-supervised alignment mechanism that aims to regularize the model, ensuring consistent and stable imputation predictions. Furthermore, we introduce a carefully devised state-dependent data augmentation strategy within SimpDM, enhancing the robustness of the diffusion model when dealing with limited data. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SimpDM matches or outperforms state-of-the-art imputation methods across various scenarios.


Maximum Entropy On-Policy Actor-Critic via Entropy Advantage Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Entropy Regularisation is a widely adopted technique that enhances policy optimisation performance and stability. A notable form of entropy regularisation is augmenting the objective with an entropy term, thereby simultaneously optimising the expected return and the entropy. This framework, known as maximum entropy reinforcement learning (MaxEnt RL), has shown theoretical and empirical successes. However, its practical application in straightforward on-policy actor-critic settings remains surprisingly underexplored. We hypothesise that this is due to the difficulty of managing the entropy reward in practice. This paper proposes a simple method of separating the entropy objective from the MaxEnt RL objective, which facilitates the implementation of MaxEnt RL in on-policy settings. Our empirical evaluations demonstrate that extending Proximal Policy Optimisation (PPO) and Trust Region Policy Optimisation (TRPO) within the MaxEnt framework improves policy optimisation performance in both MuJoCo and Procgen tasks. Additionally, our results highlight MaxEnt RL's capacity to enhance generalisation.


Mew: Multiplexed Immunofluorescence Image Analysis through an Efficient Multiplex Network

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advancements in graph-based approaches for multiplexed immunofluorescence (mIF) images have significantly propelled the field forward, offering deeper insights into patient-level phenotyping. However, current graph-based methodologies encounter two primary challenges: (1) Cellular Heterogeneity, where existing approaches fail to adequately address the inductive biases inherent in graphs, particularly the homophily characteristic observed in cellular connectivity and; (2) Scalability, where handling cellular graphs from high-dimensional images faces difficulties in managing a high number of cells. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Mew, a novel framework designed to efficiently process mIF images through the lens of multiplex network. Mew innovatively constructs a multiplex network comprising two distinct layers: a Voronoi network for geometric information and a Cell-type network for capturing cell-wise homogeneity. This framework equips a scalable and efficient Graph Neural Network (GNN), capable of processing the entire graph during training. Furthermore, Mew integrates an interpretable attention module that autonomously identifies relevant layers for image classification. Extensive experiments on a real-world patient dataset from various institutions highlight Mew's remarkable efficacy and efficiency, marking a significant advancement in mIF image analysis. The source code of Mew can be found here: \url{https://github.com/UNITES-Lab/Mew}


A Sensitivity Analysis of Cellular Automata and Heterogeneous Topology Networks: Partially-Local Cellular Automata and Homogeneous Homogeneous Random Boolean Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Elementary Cellular Automata (ECA) are a well-studied computational universe that is, despite its simple configurations, capable of impressive computational variety. Harvesting this computation in a useful way has historically shown itself to be difficult, but if combined with reservoir computing (RC), this becomes much more feasible. Furthermore, RC and ECA enable energy-efficient AI, making the combination a promising concept for Edge AI. In this work, we contrast ECA to substrates of Partially-Local CA (PLCA) and Homogeneous Homogeneous Random Boolean Networks (HHRBN). They are, in comparison, the topological heterogeneous counterparts of ECA. This represents a step from ECA towards more biological-plausible substrates. We analyse these substrates by testing on an RC benchmark (5-bit memory), using Temporal Derrida plots to estimate the sensitivity and assess the defect collapse rate. We find that, counterintuitively, disordered topology does not necessarily mean disordered computation. There are countering computational "forces" of topology imperfections leading to a higher collapse rate (order) and yet, if accounted for, an increased sensitivity to the initial condition. These observations together suggest a shrinking critical range.


Estimating the number of clusters of a Block Markov Chain

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Clustering algorithms frequently require the number of clusters to be chosen in advance, but it is usually not clear how to do this. To tackle this challenge when clustering within sequential data, we present a method for estimating the number of clusters when the data is a trajectory of a Block Markov Chain. Block Markov Chains are Markov Chains that exhibit a block structure in their transition matrix. The method considers a matrix that counts the number of transitions between different states within the trajectory, and transforms this into a spectral embedding whose dimension is set via singular value thresholding. The number of clusters is subsequently estimated via density-based clustering of this spectral embedding, an approach inspired by literature on the Stochastic Block Model. By leveraging and augmenting recent results on the spectral concentration of random matrices with Markovian dependence, we show that the method is asymptotically consistent - in spite of the dependencies between the count matrix's entries, and even when the count matrix is sparse. We also present a numerical evaluation of our method, and compare it to alternatives.