This study investigates how learners organize perceptual space in early phonetic acquisition by advancing previous studies in two key aspects. Firstly, it examines the shape of the learned hidden representation as well as its ability to categorize phonetic categories. Secondly, it explores the impact of training models on context-free acoustic information, without involving contextual cues, on phonetic acquisition, closely mimicking the early language learning stage. Using a cross-linguistic modeling approach, autoencoder models are trained on English and Mandarin and evaluated in both native and non-native conditions, following experimental conditions used in infant language perception studies. The results demonstrate that unsupervised bottom-up training on context-free acoustic information leads to comparable learned representations of perceptual space between native and non-native conditions for both English and Mandarin, resembling the early stage of universal listening in infants. These findings provide insights into the organization of perceptual space during early phonetic acquisition and contribute to our understanding of the formation and representation of phonetic categories.

Accurate forecasting of wind speed and direction is paramount across various domains, playing a pivotal role in weather prediction, renewable energy generation, agricultural management, and bushfire mitigation efforts. Accurate predictions enable meteorologists to deepen their understanding of atmospheric processes, leading to more precise weather forecasts and timely alerts for severe weather events [1]. In the realm of renewable energy, precise forecasts of wind conditions are indispensable to optimise the performance of wind farms and integrate wind energy efficiently into the power grid [2-4]. In agriculture, wind forecasts inform critical decisions such as crop spraying, sprinkler or central pivot irrigation timing, and pest control, ultimately improving crop yields and water management [5]. For bush-fire management, timely and accurate predictions of wind speed and direction are crucial for modelling fire behaviour, planning firefighter deployment, and planning evacuations, thereby reducing the impact of bushfires on communities and ecosystems [6, 7]. Given the multifaceted applications of wind forecasting, advancements in machine learning-based techniques for predicting wind speed and direction hold immense promise for bolstering societal resilience and fostering sustainable development. Traditionally, wind forecasting models fall into three categories: physical, statistical time series analysis and machine learning.

Operational disruptions can significantly impact companies performance. Ford, with its 37 plants globally, uses 17 billion parts annually to manufacture six million cars and trucks. With up to ten tiers of suppliers between the company and raw materials, any extended disruption in this supply chain can cause substantial financial losses. Therefore, the ability to forecast and identify such disruptions early is crucial for maintaining seamless operations. In this study, we demonstrate how we construct a dataset consisting of many multivariate time series to forecast first-tier supply chain disruptions, utilizing features related to capacity, inventory, utilization, and processing, as outlined in the classical Factory Physics framework. This dataset is technically challenging due to its vast scale of over five hundred thousand time series. Furthermore, these time series, while exhibiting certain similarities, also display heterogeneity within specific subgroups. To address these challenges, we propose a novel methodology that integrates an enhanced Attention Sequence to Sequence Deep Learning architecture, using Neural Network Embeddings to model group effects, with a Survival Analysis model. This model is designed to learn intricate heterogeneous data patterns related to operational disruptions. Our model has demonstrated a strong performance, achieving 0.85 precision and 0.8 recall during the Quality Assurance (QA) phase across Ford's five North American plants. Additionally, to address the common criticism of Machine Learning models as black boxes, we show how the SHAP framework can be used to generate feature importance from the model predictions. It offers valuable insights that can lead to actionable strategies and highlights the potential of advanced machine learning for managing and mitigating supply chain risks in the automotive industry.

Reference classes in healthcare establish healthy norms, such as pediatric growth charts of height and weight, and are used to chart deviations from these norms which represent potential clinical risk. How the demographics of the reference class influence clinical interpretation of deviations is unknown. Using normative modeling, a method for building reference classes, we evaluate the fairness (racial bias) in reference models of structural brain images that are widely used in psychiatry and neurology. We test whether including race in the model creates fairer models. We predict self-reported race using the deviation scores from three different reference class normative models, to better understand bias in an integrated, multivariate sense. Across all of these tasks, we uncover racial disparities that are not easily addressed with existing data or commonly used modeling techniques. Our work suggests that deviations from the norm could be due to demographic mismatch with the reference class, and assigning clinical meaning to these deviations should be done with caution. Our approach also suggests that acquiring more representative samples is an urgent research priority.

Computational preference elicitation methods are tools used to learn people's preferences quantitatively in a given context. Recent works on preference elicitation advocate for active learning as an efficient method to iteratively construct queries (framed as comparisons between context-specific cases) that are likely to be most informative about an agent's underlying preferences. In this work, we argue that the use of active learning for moral preference elicitation relies on certain assumptions about the underlying moral preferences, which can be violated in practice. Specifically, we highlight the following common assumptions (a) preferences are stable over time and not sensitive to the sequence of presented queries, (b) the appropriate hypothesis class is chosen to model moral preferences, and (c) noise in the agent's responses is limited. While these assumptions can be appropriate for preference elicitation in certain domains, prior research on moral psychology suggests they may not be valid for moral judgments. Through a synthetic simulation of preferences that violate the above assumptions, we observe that active learning can have similar or worse performance than a basic random query selection method in certain settings. Yet, simulation results also demonstrate that active learning can still be viable if the degree of instability or noise is relatively small and when the agent's preferences can be approximately represented with the hypothesis class used for learning. Our study highlights the nuances associated with effective moral preference elicitation in practice and advocates for the cautious use of active learning as a methodology to learn moral preferences.

Manually annotating nuclei from the gigapixel Hematoxylin and Eosin (H&E)-stained Whole Slide Images (WSIs) is a laborious and costly task, meaning automated algorithms for cell nuclei instance segmentation and classification could alleviate the workload of pathologists and clinical researchers and at the same time facilitate the automatic extraction of clinically interpretable features. But due to high intra- and inter-class variability of nuclei morphological and chromatic features, as well as H&E-stains susceptibility to artefacts, state-of-the-art algorithms cannot correctly detect and classify instances with the necessary performance. In this work, we hypothesise context and attention inductive biases in artificial neural networks (ANNs) could increase the generalization of algorithms for cell nuclei instance segmentation and classification. We conduct a thorough survey on context and attention methods for cell nuclei instance segmentation and classification from H&E-stained microscopy imaging, while providing a comprehensive discussion of the challenges being tackled with context and attention. Besides, we illustrate some limitations of current approaches and present ideas for future research. As a case study, we extend both a general instance segmentation and classification method (Mask-RCNN) and a tailored cell nuclei instance segmentation and classification model (HoVer-Net) with context- and attention-based mechanisms, and do a comparative analysis on a multi-centre colon nuclei identification and counting dataset. Although pathologists rely on context at multiple levels while paying attention to specific Regions of Interest (RoIs) when analysing and annotating WSIs, our findings suggest translating that domain knowledge into algorithm design is no trivial task, but to fully exploit these mechanisms, the scientific understanding of these methods should be addressed.

Federated learning (FL) enables clients to collaboratively train machine learning models under the coordination of a server in a privacy-preserving manner. One of the main challenges in FL is that the server may not receive local updates from each client in each round due to client resource limitations and intermittent network connectivity. The existence of unavailable clients severely deteriorates the overall FL performance. In this paper, we propose , a novel client update Approximation and Rectification algorithm for FL to address the client unavailability issue. FedAR can get all clients involved in the global model update to achieve a high-quality global model on the server, which also furnishes accurate predictions for each client. To this end, the server uses the latest update from each client as a surrogate for its current update. It then assigns a different weight to each client's surrogate update to derive the global model, in order to guarantee contributions from both available and unavailable clients. Our theoretical analysis proves that FedAR achieves optimal convergence rates on non-IID datasets for both convex and non-convex smooth loss functions. Extensive empirical studies show that FedAR comprehensively outperforms state-of-the-art FL baselines including FedAvg, MIFA, FedVARP and Scaffold in terms of the training loss, test accuracy, and bias mitigation. Moreover, FedAR also depicts impressive performance in the presence of a large number of clients with severe client unavailability.

Over the last ten years, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has organized an annual influenza forecasting challenge with the motivation that accurate probabilistic forecasts could improve situational awareness and yield more effective public health actions. Starting with the 2021/22 influenza season, the forecasting targets for this challenge have been based on hospital admissions reported in the CDC's National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) surveillance system. Reporting of influenza hospital admissions through NHSN began within the last few years, and as such only a limited amount of historical data are available for this signal. To produce forecasts in the presence of limited data for the target surveillance system, we augmented these data with two signals that have a longer historical record: 1) ILI+, which estimates the proportion of outpatient doctor visits where the patient has influenza; and 2) rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations at a selected set of healthcare facilities. Our model, Flusion, is an ensemble that combines gradient boosting quantile regression models with a Bayesian autoregressive model. The gradient boosting models were trained on all three data signals, while the autoregressive model was trained on only the target signal; all models were trained jointly on data for multiple locations. Flusion was the top-performing model in the CDC's influenza prediction challenge for the 2023/24 season. In this article we investigate the factors contributing to Flusion's success, and we find that its strong performance was primarily driven by the use of a gradient boosting model that was trained jointly on data from multiple surveillance signals and locations. These results indicate the value of sharing information across locations and surveillance signals, especially when doing so adds to the pool of available training data.

Recent studies of large-scale contrastive pretraining in the text embedding domain show that using single-source minibatches, rather than mixed-source minibatches, can substantially improve overall model accuracy. In this work, we explore extending training data stratification beyond source granularity by leveraging a pretrained text embedding model and the classic k-means clustering algorithm to further split training data apart by the semantic clusters within each source. Experimentally, we observe a notable increase in NDCG@10 when pretraining a BERT-based text embedding model on query-passage pairs from the MSMARCO passage retrieval dataset. Additionally, we conceptually connect our clustering approach to both the Topic Aware Sampling (TAS) aspect of the TAS-B methodology and the nearest-neighbor-based hard-negative mining aspect of the ANCE methodology and discuss how this unified view motivates future lines of research on the organization of contrastive pretraining data.

Causal discovery from observational data holds great promise, but existing methods rely on strong assumptions about the underlying causal structure, often requiring full observability of all relevant variables. We tackle these challenges by leveraging the score function $\nabla \log p(X)$ of observed variables for causal discovery and propose the following contributions. First, we generalize the existing results of identifiability with the score to additive noise models with minimal requirements on the causal mechanisms. Second, we establish conditions for inferring causal relations from the score even in the presence of hidden variables; this result is two-faced: we demonstrate the score's potential as an alternative to conditional independence tests to infer the equivalence class of causal graphs with hidden variables, and we provide the necessary conditions for identifying direct causes in latent variable models. Building on these insights, we propose a flexible algorithm for causal discovery across linear, nonlinear, and latent variable models, which we empirically validate.