Identifying patient subgroups with different treatment responses is an important task to inform medical recommendations, guidelines, and the design of future clinical trials. Existing approaches for subgroup analysis primarily focus on Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs), in which treatment assignment is randomised. Furthermore, the patient cohort of an RCT is often constrained by cost, and is not representative of the heterogeneity of patients likely to receive treatment in real-world clinical practice. Therefore, when applied to observational studies, such approaches suffer from significant statistical biases because of the non-randomisation of treatment. Our work introduces a novel, outcome-guided method for identifying treatment response subgroups in observational studies. Our approach assigns each patient to a subgroup associated with two time-to-event distributions: one under treatment and one under control regime. It hence positions itself in between individualised and average treatment effect estimation. The assumptions of our model result in a simple correction of the statistical bias from treatment non-randomisation through inverse propensity weighting. In experiments, our approach significantly outperforms the current state-of-the-art method for outcome-guided subgroup analysis in both randomised and observational treatment regimes.

Estimation of the Fisher Information Metric (FIM-estimation) is an important task that arises in unsupervised learning of phase transitions, a problem proposed by physicists. This work completes the definition of the task by defining rigorous evaluation metrics distMSE, distMSEPS, and distRE and introduces ClassiFIM, a novel machine learning method designed to solve the FIM-estimation task. Unlike existing methods for unsupervised learning of phase transitions, ClassiFIM directly estimates a well-defined quantity (the FIM), allowing it to be rigorously compared to any present and future other methods that estimate the same. ClassiFIM transforms a dataset for the FIM-estimation task into a dataset for an auxiliary binary classification task and involves selecting and training a model for the latter. We prove that the output of ClassiFIM approaches the exact FIM in the limit of infinite dataset size and under certain regularity conditions. We implement ClassiFIM on multiple datasets, including datasets describing classical and quantum phase transitions, and find that it achieves a good ground truth approximation with modest computational resources. Furthermore, we independently implement two alternative state-of-the-art methods for unsupervised estimation of phase transition locations on the same datasets and find that ClassiFIM predicts such locations at least as well as these other methods. To emphasize the generality of our method, we also propose and generate the MNIST-CNN dataset, which consists of the output of CNNs trained on MNIST for different hyperparameter choices. Using ClassiFIM on this dataset suggests there is a phase transition in the distribution of image-prediction pairs for CNNs trained on MNIST, demonstrating the broad scope of FIM-estimation beyond physics.

High quality spatiotemporal signal is vitally important for real application scenarios like energy management, traffic planning and cyber security. Due to the uncontrollable factors like abrupt sensors breakdown or communication fault, the spatiotemporal signal collected by sensors is always incomplete. A dynamic graph convolutional network (DGCN) is effective for processing spatiotemporal signal recovery. However, it adopts a static GCN and a sequence neural network to explore the spatial and temporal patterns, separately. Such a separated two-step processing is loose spatiotemporal, thereby failing to capture the complex inner spatiotemporal correlation. To address this issue, this paper proposes a Compact-Dynamic Graph Convolutional Network (CDGCN) for spatiotemporal signal recovery with the following two-fold ideas: a) leveraging the tensor M-product to build a unified tensor graph convolution framework, which considers both spatial and temporal patterns simultaneously; and b) constructing a differential smoothness-based objective function to reduce the noise interference in spatiotemporal signal, thereby further improve the recovery accuracy. Experiments on real-world spatiotemporal datasets demonstrate that the proposed CDGCN significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art models in terms of recovery accuracy.

Databases are increasingly embracing AI to provide autonomous system optimization and intelligent in-database analytics, aiming to relieve end-user burdens across various industry sectors. Nonetheless, most existing approaches fail to account for the dynamic nature of databases, which renders them ineffective for real-world applications characterized by evolving data and workloads. This paper introduces NeurDB, an AI-powered autonomous database that deepens the fusion of AI and databases with adaptability to data and workload drift. NeurDB establishes a new in-database AI ecosystem that seamlessly integrates AI workflows within the database. This integration enables efficient and effective in-database AI analytics and fast-adaptive learned system components. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that NeurDB substantially outperforms existing solutions in managing AI analytics tasks, with the proposed learned components more effectively handling environmental dynamism than state-of-the-art approaches.

First-order methods, such as gradient descent (GD) and stochastic gradient descent (SGD), have been proven effective in training neural networks. In the context of over-parameterization, there is a line of work demonstrating that randomly initialized (stochastic) gradient descent converges to a globally optimal solution at a linear convergence rate for the quadratic loss function. However, the learning rate of GD for training two-layer neural networks exhibits poor dependence on the sample size and the Gram matrix, leading to a slow training process. In this paper, we show that for the $L^2$ regression problems, the learning rate can be improved from $\mathcal{O}(\lambda_0/n^2)$ to $\mathcal{O}(1/\|\bm{H}^{\infty}\|_2)$, which implies that GD actually enjoys a faster convergence rate. Furthermore, we generalize the method to GD in training two-layer Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), showing a similar improvement for the learning rate. Although the improved learning rate has a mild dependence on the Gram matrix, we still need to set it small enough in practice due to the unknown eigenvalues of the Gram matrix. More importantly, the convergence rate is tied to the least eigenvalue of the Gram matrix, which can lead to slow convergence. In this work, we provide the convergence analysis of natural gradient descent (NGD) in training two-layer PINNs, demonstrating that the learning rate can be $\mathcal{O}(1)$, and at this rate, the convergence rate is independent of the Gram matrix.

Evaluating the decision-making system is indispensable in developing autonomous vehicles, while realistic and challenging safety-critical test scenarios play a crucial role. Obtaining these scenarios is non-trivial, thanks to the long-tailed distribution, sparsity, and rarity in real-world data sets. To tackle this problem, in this paper, we introduce a natural adversarial scenario generation solution using naturalistic human driving priors and reinforcement learning techniques. By doing this, we can obtain large-scale test scenarios that are both diverse and realistic. Specifically, we build a simulation environment that mimics natural traffic interaction scenarios. Informed by this environment, we implement a two-stage procedure. The first stage incorporates conventional rule-based models, e.g., IDM~(Intelligent Driver Model) and MOBIL~(Minimizing Overall Braking Induced by Lane changes) model, to coarsely and discretely capture and calibrate key control parameters from the real-world dataset. Next, we leverage GAIL~(Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning) to represent driver behaviors continuously. The derived GAIL can be further used to design a PPO~(Proximal Policy Optimization)-based actor-critic network framework to fine-tune the reward function, and then optimizes our natural adversarial scenario generation solution. Extensive experiments have been conducted in the NGSIM dataset including the trajectory of 3,000 vehicles. Essential traffic parameters were measured in comparison with the baseline model, e.g., the collision rate, accelerations, steering, and the number of lane changes. Our findings demonstrate that the proposed model can generate realistic safety-critical test scenarios covering both naturalness and adversariality, which can be a cornerstone for the development of autonomous vehicles.

Bank credit risk is a significant challenge in modern financial transactions, and the ability to identify qualified credit card holders among a large number of applicants is crucial for the profitability of a bank'sbank's credit card business. In the past, screening applicants'applicants' conditions often required a significant amount of manual labor, which was time-consuming and labor-intensive. Although the accuracy and reliability of previously used ML models have been continuously improving, the pursuit of more reliable and powerful AI intelligent models is undoubtedly the unremitting pursuit by major banks in the financial industry. In this study, we used a dataset of over 40,000 records provided by a commercial bank as the research object. We compared various dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA and T-SNE for preprocessing high-dimensional datasets and performed in-depth adaptation and tuning of distributed models such as LightGBM and XGBoost, as well as deep models like Tabnet. After a series of research and processing, we obtained excellent research results by combining SMOTEENN with these techniques. The experiments demonstrated that LightGBM combined with PCA and SMOTEENN techniques can assist banks in accurately predicting potential high-quality customers, showing relatively outstanding performance compared to other models.

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is a currently incurable neurodegeneartive disease. Accurately detecting AD, especially in the early stage, represents a high research priority. AD is characterized by progressive cognitive impairments that are related to alterations in brain functional connectivity (FC). Based on this association, many studies have been published over the decades using FC and machine learning to differentiate AD from healthy aging. The most recent development in this detection method highlights the use of graph neural network (GNN) as the brain functionality analysis. In this paper, we proposed a stack of spatio-temporal feature extraction and graph generation based AD classification model using resting state fMRI. The proposed multi-level generated connectome (MLC) based graph convolutional network (GCN) (MLC-GCN) contains a multi-graph generation block and a GCN prediction block. The multi-graph generation block consists of a hierarchy of spatio-temporal feature extraction layers for extracting spatio-temporal rsfMRI features at different depths and building the corresponding connectomes. The GCN prediction block takes the learned multi-level connectomes to build and optimize GCNs at each level and concatenates the learned graphical features as the final predicting features for AD classification. Through independent cohort validations, MLC-GCN shows better performance for differentiating MCI, AD, and normal aging than state-of-art GCN and rsfMRI based AD classifiers. The proposed MLC-GCN also showed high explainability in terms of learning clinically reasonable connectome node and connectivity features from two independent datasets. While we only tested MLC-GCN on AD, the basic rsfMRI-based multi-level learned GCN based outcome prediction strategy is valid for other diseases or clinical outcomes.

In the field of EEG-based gaze prediction, the application of deep learning to interpret complex neural data poses significant challenges. This study evaluates the effectiveness of pre-processing techniques and the effect of additional depthwise separable convolution on EEG vision transformers (ViTs) in a pretrained model architecture. We introduce a novel method, the EEG Deeper Clustered Vision Transformer (EEG-DCViT), which combines depthwise separable convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with vision transformers, enriched by a pre-processing strategy involving data clustering. The new approach demonstrates superior performance, establishing a new benchmark with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 51.6 mm. This achievement underscores the impact of pre-processing and model refinement in enhancing EEG-based applications.

In this article, we describe an algorithm for solving Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization problems on the Intel Loihi 2 neuromorphic processor. The solver is based on a hardware-aware fine-grained parallel simulated annealing algorithm developed for Intel's neuromorphic research chip Loihi 2. Preliminary results show that our approach can generate feasible solutions in as little as 1 ms and up to 37x more energy efficient compared to two baseline solvers running on a CPU. These advantages could be especially relevant for size-, weight-, and power-constrained edge computing applications.