Statistical Learning
Robust Offline Active Learning on Graphs
We consider the problem of active learning on graphs, which has crucial applications in many real-world networks where labeling node responses is expensive. In this paper, we propose an offline active learning method that selects nodes to query by explicitly incorporating information from both the network structure and node covariates. Building on graph signal recovery theories and the random spectral sparsification technique, the proposed method adopts a two-stage biased sampling strategy that takes both informativeness and representativeness into consideration for node querying. Informativeness refers to the complexity of graph signals that are learnable from the responses of queried nodes, while representativeness refers to the capacity of queried nodes to control generalization errors given noisy node-level information. We establish a theoretical relationship between generalization error and the number of nodes selected by the proposed method. Our theoretical results demonstrate the trade-off between informativeness and representativeness in active learning. Extensive numerical experiments show that the proposed method is competitive with existing graph-based active learning methods, especially when node covariates and responses contain noises. Additionally, the proposed method is applicable to both regression and classification tasks on graphs.
Confidence-weighted integration of human and machine judgments for superior decision-making
Yรกรฑez, Felipe, Luo, Xiaoliang, Minero, Omar Valerio, Love, Bradley C.
Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools in various domains. Recent studies have shown that LLMs can surpass humans in certain tasks, such as predicting the outcomes of neuroscience studies. What role does this leave for humans in the overall decision process? One possibility is that humans, despite performing worse than LLMs, can still add value when teamed with them. A human and machine team can surpass each individual teammate when team members' confidence is well-calibrated and team members diverge in which tasks they find difficult (i.e., calibration and diversity are needed). We simplified and extended a Bayesian approach to combining judgments using a logistic regression framework that integrates confidence-weighted judgments for any number of team members. Using this straightforward method, we demonstrated in a neuroscience forecasting task that, even when humans were inferior to LLMs, their combination with one or more LLMs consistently improved team performance. Our hope is that this simple and effective strategy for integrating the judgments of humans and machines will lead to productive collaborations.
Localized Sparse Principal Component Analysis of Multivariate Time Series in Frequency Domain
Namdari, Jamshid, Manatunga, Amita, Ferrarelli, Fabio, Krafty, Robert
Since its first descriptions by Pearson (1901) and by Hotelling (1933), principal component analysis (PCA) has been one of the main multivariate analysis techniques for dimension reduction and feature extraction. PCA has become an essential tool for not just independent and identically distributed (iid) multivariate data, but also for serially correlated multivariate time series data in both the time and frequency domains. In the frequency domain, PCA as a sequential method for finding directions of maximum variability appeared in the work of Brillinger (1964) and Goodman (1967). Brillinger (1969) formulated the principal component series through an optimal linear filtering that transmit a p-dimensional signal through a d-dimensional channel and recovers it with minimum loss of information. A foundational discussion of theory and applications of PCA in frequency domain can be found in Brillinger (2001); recent applications of this framework include uncovering non-coherent block structures (Sundararajan, 2021), time-frequency analysis (Ombao et al., 2005) and change point detection (Jiao et al., 2021). PCA for the frequency domain analysis of high-dimensional multivariate time series faces several challenges. The first challenge, which is not unique to frequency domain PCA and is a challenge for PCA in general, is high-dimensionality. When the dimension is fixed, sample eigenvectors, and consequently sample estimates of the principal components, are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed (Anderson, 1958). However, in highdimensional regimes, where the dimension of the random variable grows, sample PCs fail to be consistent.
Interpretable Graph Neural Networks for Heterogeneous Tabular Data
Alkhatib, Amr, Bostrรถm, Henrik
Many machine learning algorithms for tabular data produce black-box models, which prevent users from understanding the rationale behind the model predictions. In their unconstrained form, graph neural networks fall into this category, and they have further limited abilities to handle heterogeneous data. To overcome these limitations, an approach is proposed, called IGNH (Interpretable Graph Neural Network for Heterogeneous tabular data), which handles both categorical and numerical features, while constraining the learning process to generate exact feature attributions together with the predictions. A large-scale empirical investigation is presented, showing that the feature attributions provided by IGNH align with Shapley values that are computed post hoc. Furthermore, the results show that IGNH outperforms two powerful machine learning algorithms for tabular data, Random Forests and TabNet, while reaching a similar level of performance as XGBoost.
End-to-end Semantic-centric Video-based Multimodal Affective Computing
Lin, Ronghao, Zeng, Ying, Mai, Sijie, Hu, Haifeng
In the pathway toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), understanding human's affection is essential to enhance machine's cognition abilities. For achieving more sensual human-AI interaction, Multimodal Affective Computing (MAC) in human-spoken videos has attracted increasing attention. However, previous methods are mainly devoted to designing multimodal fusion algorithms, suffering from two issues: semantic imbalance caused by diverse pre-processing operations and semantic mismatch raised by inconsistent affection content contained in different modalities comparing with the multimodal ground truth. Besides, the usage of manual features extractors make they fail in building end-to-end pipeline for multiple MAC downstream tasks. To address above challenges, we propose a novel end-to-end framework named SemanticMAC to compute multimodal semantic-centric affection for human-spoken videos. We firstly employ pre-trained Transformer model in multimodal data pre-processing and design Affective Perceiver module to capture unimodal affective information. Moreover, we present a semantic-centric approach to unify multimodal representation learning in three ways, including gated feature interaction, multi-task pseudo label generation, and intra-/inter-sample contrastive learning. Finally, SemanticMAC effectively learn specific- and shared-semantic representations in the guidance of semantic-centric labels. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our approach surpass the state-of-the-art methods on 7 public datasets in four MAC downstream tasks.
"Normalized Stress" is Not Normalized: How to Interpret Stress Correctly
Smelser, Kiran, Miller, Jacob, Kobourov, Stephen
Stress is among the most commonly employed quality metrics and optimization criteria for dimension reduction projections of high dimensional data. Complex, high dimensional data is ubiquitous across many scientific disciplines, including machine learning, biology, and the social sciences. One of the primary methods of visualizing these datasets is with two dimensional scatter plots that visually capture some properties of the data. Because visually determining the accuracy of these plots is challenging, researchers often use quality metrics to measure projection accuracy or faithfulness to the full data. One of the most commonly employed metrics, normalized stress, is sensitive to uniform scaling of the projection, despite this act not meaningfully changing anything about the projection. We investigate the effect of scaling on stress and other distance based quality metrics analytically and empirically by showing just how much the values change and how this affects dimension reduction technique evaluations. We introduce a simple technique to make normalized stress scale invariant and show that it accurately captures expected behavior on a small benchmark.
RTAT: A Robust Two-stage Association Tracker for Multi-Object Tracking
Guo, Song, Liu, Rujie, Abe, Narishige
Data association is an essential part in the tracking-by-detection based Multi-Object Tracking (MOT). Most trackers focus on how to design a better data association strategy to improve the tracking performance. The rule-based handcrafted association methods are simple and highly efficient but lack generalization capability to deal with complex scenes. While the learnt association methods can learn high-order contextual information to deal with various complex scenes, but they have the limitations of higher complexity and cost. To address these limitations, we propose a Robust Two-stage Association Tracker, named RTAT. The first-stage association is performed between tracklets and detections to generate tracklets with high purity, and the second-stage association is performed between tracklets to form complete trajectories. For the first-stage association, we use a simple data association strategy to generate tracklets with high purity by setting a low threshold for the matching cost in the assignment process. We conduct the tracklet association in the second-stage based on the framework of message-passing GNN. Our method models the tracklet association as a series of edge classification problem in hierarchical graphs, which can recursively merge short tracklets into longer ones. Our tracker RTAT ranks first on the test set of MOT17 and MOT20 benchmarks in most of the main MOT metrics: HOTA, IDF1, and AssA. We achieve 67.2 HOTA, 84.7 IDF1, and 69.7 AssA on MOT17, and 66.2 HOTA, 82.5 IDF1, and 68.1 AssA on MOT20.
MedTsLLM: Leveraging LLMs for Multimodal Medical Time Series Analysis
Chan, Nimeesha, Parker, Felix, Bennett, William, Wu, Tianyi, Jia, Mung Yao, Fackler, James, Ghobadi, Kimia
The complexity and heterogeneity of data in many real-world applications pose significant challenges for traditional machine learning and signal processing techniques. For instance, in medicine, effective analysis of diverse physiological signals is crucial for patient monitoring and clinical decision-making and yet highly challenging. We introduce MedTsLLM, a general multimodal large language model (LLM) framework that effectively integrates time series data and rich contextual information in the form of text to analyze physiological signals, performing three tasks with clinical relevance: semantic segmentation, boundary detection, and anomaly detection in time series. These critical tasks enable deeper analysis of physiological signals and can provide actionable insights for clinicians. We utilize a reprogramming layer to align embeddings of time series patches with a pretrained LLM's embedding space and make effective use of raw time series, in conjunction with textual context. Given the multivariate nature of medical datasets, we develop methods to handle multiple covariates. We additionally tailor the text prompt to include patient-specific information. Our model outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, including deep learning models, other LLMs, and clinical methods across multiple medical domains, specifically electrocardiograms and respiratory waveforms. MedTsLLM presents a promising step towards harnessing the power of LLMs for medical time series analysis that can elevate data-driven tools for clinicians and improve patient outcomes.
Battery GraphNets : Relational Learning for Lithium-ion Batteries(LiBs) Life Estimation
Srinivas, Sakhinana Sagar, Sarkar, Rajat Kumar, Runkana, Venkataramana
Battery life estimation is critical for optimizing battery performance and guaranteeing minimal degradation for better efficiency and reliability of battery-powered systems. The existing methods to predict the Remaining Useful Life(RUL) of Lithium-ion Batteries (LiBs) neglect the relational dependencies of the battery parameters to model the nonlinear degradation trajectories. We present the Battery GraphNets framework that jointly learns to incorporate a discrete dependency graph structure between battery parameters to capture the complex interactions and the graph-learning algorithm to model the intrinsic battery degradation for RUL prognosis. The proposed method outperforms several popular methods by a significant margin on publicly available battery datasets and achieves SOTA performance. We report the ablation studies to support the efficacy of our approach.
Ranking and Combining Latent Structured Predictive Scores without Labeled Data
Afshar, Shiva, Chen, Yinghan, Han, Shizhong, Lin, Ying
Combining multiple predictors obtained from distributed data sources to an accurate meta-learner is promising to achieve enhanced performance in lots of prediction problems. As the accuracy of each predictor is usually unknown, integrating the predictors to achieve better performance is challenging. Conventional ensemble learning methods assess the accuracy of predictors based on extensive labeled data. In practical applications, however, the acquisition of such labeled data can prove to be an arduous task. Furthermore, the predictors under consideration may exhibit high degrees of correlation, particularly when similar data sources or machine learning algorithms were employed during their model training. In response to these challenges, this paper introduces a novel structured unsupervised ensemble learning model (SUEL) to exploit the dependency between a set of predictors with continuous predictive scores, rank the predictors without labeled data and combine them to an ensembled score with weights. Two novel correlation-based decomposition algorithms are further proposed to estimate the SUEL model, constrained quadratic optimization (SUEL.CQO) and matrix-factorization-based (SUEL.MF) approaches. The efficacy of the proposed methods is rigorously assessed through both simulation studies and real-world application of risk genes discovery. The results compellingly demonstrate that the proposed methods can efficiently integrate the dependent predictors to an ensemble model without the need of ground truth data.