The self-attention mechanism in Transformer architecture, invariant to sequence order, necessitates positional embeddings to encode temporal order in time series prediction. We argue that this reliance on positional embeddings restricts the Transformer's ability to effectively represent temporal sequences, particularly when employing longer lookback windows. To address this, we introduce an innovative approach that combines Pyramid RNN embeddings(PRE) for univariate time series with the Transformer's capability to model multivariate dependencies. PRE, utilizing pyramidal one-dimensional convolutional layers, constructs multiscale convolutional features that preserve temporal order. Additionally, RNNs, layered atop these features, learn multiscale time series representations sensitive to sequence order. This integration into Transformer models with attention mechanisms results in significant performance enhancements. We present the PRformer, a model integrating PRE with a standard Transformer encoder, demonstrating state-of-the-art performance on various real-world datasets. This performance highlights the effectiveness of our approach in leveraging longer lookback windows and underscores the critical role of robust temporal representations in maximizing Transformer's potential for prediction tasks. Code is available at this repository: \url{https://github.com/usualheart/PRformer}.

The intermittent nature of photovoltaic (PV) solar energy, driven by variable weather, leads to power losses of 10-70% and an average energy production decrease of 25%. Accurate loss characterization and fault detection are crucial for reliable PV system performance and efficiency, integrating this data into control signal monitoring systems. Computational modeling of PV systems supports technological, economic, and performance analyses, but current models are often rigid, limiting advanced performance optimization and innovation. Conventional fault detection strategies are costly and often yield unreliable results due to complex data signal profiles. Artificial intelligence (AI), especially machine learning algorithms, offers improved fault detection by analyzing relationships between input parameters (e.g., meteorological and electrical) and output metrics (e.g., production). Once trained, these models can effectively identify faults by detecting deviations from expected performance. This research presents a computational model using the PVlib library in Python, incorporating a dynamic loss quantification algorithm that processes meteorological, operational, and technical data. An artificial neural network (ANN) trained on synthetic datasets with a five-minute resolution simulates real-world PV system faults. A dynamic threshold definition for fault detection is based on historical data from a PV system at Universidad de los Andes. Key contributions include: (i) a PV system model with a mean absolute error of 6.0% in daily energy estimation; (ii) dynamic loss quantification without specialized equipment; (iii) an AI-based algorithm for technical parameter estimation, avoiding special monitoring devices; and (iv) a fault detection model achieving 82.2% mean accuracy and 92.6% maximum accuracy.

The decisions traders make to buy or sell an asset depend on various analyses, with expertise required to identify patterns that can be exploited for profit. In this paper we identify novel features extracted from emergent and well-established financial markets using linear models and Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) with the aim of finding profitable opportunities. We used approximately six months of data consisting of minute candles from the Bitcoin, Pepecoin, and Nasdaq markets to derive and compare the proposed novel features with commonly used ones. These features were extracted based on the previous 59 minutes for each market and used to identify predictions for the hour ahead. We explored the performance of various machine learning strategies, such as Random Forests (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) to classify market movements. A naive random approach to selecting trading decisions was used as a benchmark, with outcomes assumed to be equally likely. We used a temporal cross-validation approach using test sets of 40%, 30% and 20% of total hours to evaluate the learning algorithms' performances. Our results showed that filtering the time series facilitates algorithms' generalisation. The GMM filtering approach revealed that the KNN and RF algorithms produced higher average returns than the random algorithm.

Graph clustering is a crucial task in network analysis with widespread applications, focusing on partitioning nodes into distinct groups with stronger intra-group connections than inter-group ones. Recently, contrastive learning has achieved significant progress in graph clustering. However, most methods suffer from the following issues: 1) an over-reliance on meticulously designed data augmentation strategies, which can undermine the potential of contrastive learning. 2) overlooking cluster-oriented structural information, particularly the higher-order cluster(community) structure information, which could unveil the mesoscopic cluster structure information of the network. In this study, Structure-enhanced Contrastive Learning (SECL) is introduced to addresses these issues by leveraging inherent network structures. SECL utilizes a cross-view contrastive learning mechanism to enhance node embeddings without elaborate data augmentations, a structural contrastive learning module for ensuring structural consistency, and a modularity maximization strategy for harnessing clustering-oriented information. This comprehensive approach results in robust node representations that greatly enhance clustering performance. Extensive experiments on six datasets confirm SECL's superiority over current state-of-the-art methods, indicating a substantial improvement in the domain of graph clustering.

The dynamic nature of open-world scenarios has attracted more attention to class incremental learning (CIL). However, existing CIL methods typically presume the availability of complete ground-truth labels throughout the training process, an assumption rarely met in practical applications. Consequently, this paper explores a more challenging problem of unsupervised class incremental learning (UCIL). The essence of addressing this problem lies in effectively capturing comprehensive feature representations and discovering unknown novel classes. To achieve this, we first model the knowledge of class distribution by exploiting fine-grained prototypes. Subsequently, a granularity alignment technique is introduced to enhance the unsupervised class discovery. Additionally, we proposed a strategy to minimize overlap between novel and existing classes, thereby preserving historical knowledge and mitigating the phenomenon of catastrophic forgetting. Extensive experiments on the five datasets demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art methods, indicating the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Decentralized learning recently has received increasing attention in machine learning due to its advantages in implementation simplicity and system robustness, data privacy. Meanwhile, the adaptive gradient methods show superior performances in many machine learning tasks such as training neural networks. Although some works focus on studying decentralized optimization algorithms with adaptive learning rates, these adaptive decentralized algorithms still suffer from high sample complexity. To fill these gaps, we propose a class of faster adaptive decentralized algorithms (i.e., AdaMDOS and AdaMDOF) for distributed nonconvex stochastic and finite-sum optimization, respectively. Moreover, we provide a solid convergence analysis framework for our methods. In particular, we prove that our AdaMDOS obtains a near-optimal sample complexity of $\tilde{O}(\epsilon^{-3})$ for finding an $\epsilon$-stationary solution of nonconvex stochastic optimization. Meanwhile, our AdaMDOF obtains a near-optimal sample complexity of $O(\sqrt{n}\epsilon^{-2})$ for finding an $\epsilon$-stationary solution of nonconvex finite-sum optimization, where $n$ denotes the sample size. To the best of our knowledge, our AdaMDOF algorithm is the first adaptive decentralized algorithm for nonconvex finite-sum optimization. Some experimental results demonstrate efficiency of our algorithms.

Density-based clustering methods by mode-seeking usually achieve clustering by using local density estimation to mine structural information, such as local dependencies from lower density points to higher neighbors. However, they often rely too heavily on \emph{local} structures and neglect \emph{global} characteristics, which can lead to significant errors in peak selection and dependency establishment. Although introducing more hyperparameters that revise dependencies can help mitigate this issue, tuning them is challenging and even impossible on real-world datasets. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm (TANGO) to establish local dependencies by exploiting a global-view \emph{typicality} of points, which is obtained by mining further the density distributions and initial dependencies. TANGO then obtains sub-clusters with the help of the adjusted dependencies, and characterizes the similarity between sub-clusters by incorporating path-based connectivity. It achieves final clustering by employing graph-cut on sub-clusters, thus avoiding the challenging selection of cluster centers. Moreover, this paper provides theoretical analysis and an efficient method for the calculation of typicality. Experimental results on several synthetic and $16$ real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of TANGO.

This paper analyzes the statistical performance of a robust spectral clustering method for latent structure recovery in noisy data matrices. We consider eigenvector-based clustering applied to a matrix of nonparametric rank statistics that is derived entrywise from the raw, original data matrix. This approach is robust in the sense that, unlike traditional spectral clustering procedures, it can provably recover population-level latent block structure even when the observed data matrix includes heavy-tailed entries and has a heterogeneous variance profile. Our main theoretical contributions are threefold and hold under flexible data generating conditions. First, we establish that robust spectral clustering with rank statistics can consistently recover latent block structure, viewed as communities of nodes in a graph, in the sense that unobserved community memberships for all but a vanishing fraction of nodes are correctly recovered with high probability when the data matrix is large. Second, we refine the former result and further establish that, under certain conditions, the community membership of any individual, specified node of interest can be asymptotically exactly recovered with probability tending to one in the large-data limit. Third, we establish asymptotic normality results associated with the truncated eigenstructure of matrices whose entries are rank statistics, made possible by synthesizing contemporary entrywise matrix perturbation analysis with the classical nonparametric theory of so-called simple linear rank statistics. Collectively, these results demonstrate the statistical utility of rank-based data transformations when paired with spectral techniques for dimensionality reduction. Additionally, for a dataset of human connectomes, our approach yields parsimonious dimensionality reduction and improved recovery of ground-truth neuroanatomical cluster structure.

Differentially private stochastic gradient descent (DP-SGD) has been instrumental in privately training deep learning models by providing a framework to control and track the privacy loss incurred during training. At the core of this computation lies a subsampling method that uses a privacy amplification lemma to enhance the privacy guarantees provided by the additive noise. Fixed size subsampling is appealing for its constant memory usage, unlike the variable sized minibatches in Poisson subsampling. It is also of interest in addressing class imbalance and federated learning. However, the current computable guarantees for fixed-size subsampling are not tight and do not consider both add/remove and replace-one adjacency relationships. We present a new and holistic R{\'e}nyi differential privacy (RDP) accountant for DP-SGD with fixed-size subsampling without replacement (FSwoR) and with replacement (FSwR). For FSwoR we consider both add/remove and replace-one adjacency. Our FSwoR results improves on the best current computable bound by a factor of $4$. We also show for the first time that the widely-used Poisson subsampling and FSwoR with replace-one adjacency have the same privacy to leading order in the sampling probability. Accordingly, our work suggests that FSwoR is often preferable to Poisson subsampling due to constant memory usage. Our FSwR accountant includes explicit non-asymptotic upper and lower bounds and, to the authors' knowledge, is the first such analysis of fixed-size RDP with replacement for DP-SGD. We analytically and empirically compare fixed size and Poisson subsampling, and show that DP-SGD gradients in a fixed-size subsampling regime exhibit lower variance in practice in addition to memory usage benefits.

Confirmation bias, the tendency to interpret information in a way that aligns with one's preconceptions, can profoundly impact scientific research, leading to conclusions that reflect the researcher's hypotheses even when the observational data do not support them. This issue is especially critical in scientific fields involving highly noisy observations, such as cryo-electron microscopy. This study investigates confirmation bias in Gaussian mixture models. We consider the following experiment: A team of scientists assumes they are analyzing data drawn from a Gaussian mixture model with known signals (hypotheses) as centroids. However, in reality, the observations consist entirely of noise without any informative structure. The researchers use a single iteration of the K-means or expectation-maximization algorithms, two popular algorithms to estimate the centroids. Despite the observations being pure noise, we show that these algorithms yield biased estimates that resemble the initial hypotheses, contradicting the unbiased expectation that averaging these noise observations would converge to zero. Namely, the algorithms generate estimates that mirror the postulated model, although the hypotheses (the presumed centroids of the Gaussian mixture) are not evident in the observations. Specifically, among other results, we prove a positive correlation between the estimates produced by the algorithms and the corresponding hypotheses. We also derive explicit closed-form expressions of the estimates for a finite and infinite number of hypotheses. This study underscores the risks of confirmation bias in low signal-to-noise environments, provides insights into potential pitfalls in scientific methodologies, and highlights the importance of prudent data interpretation.