Statistical Learning
Painful intelligence: What AI can tell us about human suffering
This book uses the modern theory of artificial intelligence (AI) to understand human suffering or mental pain. Both humans and sophisticated AI agents process information about the world in order to achieve goals and obtain rewards, which is why AI can be used as a model of the human brain and mind. This book intends to make the theory accessible to a relatively general audience, requiring only some relevant scientific background. The book starts with the assumption that suffering is mainly caused by frustration. Frustration means the failure of an agent (whether AI or human) to achieve a goal or a reward it wanted or expected. Frustration is inevitable because of the overwhelming complexity of the world, limited computational resources, and scarcity of good data. In particular, such limitations imply that an agent acting in the real world must cope with uncontrollability, unpredictability, and uncertainty, which all lead to frustration. Fundamental in such modelling is the idea of learning, or adaptation to the environment. While AI uses machine learning, humans and animals adapt by a combination of evolutionary mechanisms and ordinary learning. Even frustration is fundamentally an error signal that the system uses for learning. This book explores various aspects and limitations of learning algorithms and their implications regarding suffering. At the end of the book, the computational theory is used to derive various interventions or training methods that will reduce suffering in humans. The amount of frustration is expressed by a simple equation which indicates how it can be reduced. The ensuing interventions are very similar to those proposed by Buddhist and Stoic philosophy, and include mindfulness meditation. Therefore, this book can be interpreted as an exposition of a computational theory justifying why such philosophies and meditation reduce human suffering.
Robust Clustering on High-Dimensional Data with Stochastic Quantization
Kozyriev, Anton, Norkin, Vladimir
This paper addresses the limitations of traditional vector quantization (clustering) algorithms, particularly K-Means and its variant K-Means++, and explores the Stochastic Quantization (SQ) algorithm as a scalable alternative for high-dimensional unsupervised and semi-supervised learning problems. Some traditional clustering algorithms suffer from inefficient memory utilization during computation, necessitating the loading of all data samples into memory, which becomes impractical for large-scale datasets. While variants such as Mini-Batch K-Means partially mitigate this issue by reducing memory usage, they lack robust theoretical convergence guarantees due to the non-convex nature of clustering problems. In contrast, the Stochastic Quantization algorithm provides strong theoretical convergence guarantees, making it a robust alternative for clustering tasks. We demonstrate the computational efficiency and rapid convergence of the algorithm on an image classification problem with partially labeled data, comparing model accuracy across various ratios of labeled to unlabeled data. To address the challenge of high dimensionality, we trained Triplet Network to encode images into low-dimensional representations in a latent space, which serve as a basis for comparing the efficiency of both the Stochastic Quantization algorithm and traditional quantization algorithms. Furthermore, we enhance the algorithm's convergence speed by introducing modifications with an adaptive learning rate.
Practical Forecasting of Cryptocoins Timeseries using Correlation Patterns
De Rosa, Pasquale, Felber, Pascal, Schiavoni, Valerio
Cryptocoins (i.e., Bitcoin, Ether, Litecoin) are tradable digital assets. Ownerships of cryptocoins are registered on distributed ledgers (i.e., blockchains). Secure encryption techniques guarantee the security of the transactions (transfers of coins among owners), registered into the ledger. Cryptocoins are exchanged for specific trading prices. The extreme volatility of such trading prices across all different sets of crypto-assets remains undisputed. However, the relations between the trading prices across different cryptocoins remains largely unexplored. Major coin exchanges indicate trend correlation to advise for sells or buys. However, price correlations remain largely unexplored. We shed some light on the trend correlations across a large variety of cryptocoins, by investigating their coin/price correlation trends over the past two years. We study the causality between the trends, and exploit the derived correlations to understand the accuracy of state-of-the-art forecasting techniques for time series modeling (e.g., GBMs, LSTM and GRU) of correlated cryptocoins. Our evaluation shows (i) strong correlation patterns between the most traded coins (e.g., Bitcoin and Ether) and other types of cryptocurrencies, and (ii) state-of-the-art time series forecasting algorithms can be used to forecast cryptocoins price trends. We released datasets and code to reproduce our analysis to the research community.
Structural adaptation via directional regularity: rate accelerated estimation in multivariate functional data
Kassi, Omar, Wang, Sunny G. W.
We introduce directional regularity, a new definition of anisotropy for multivariate functional data. Instead of taking the conventional view which determines anisotropy as a notion of smoothness along a dimension, directional regularity additionally views anisotropy through the lens of directions. We show that faster rates of convergence can be obtained through a change-of-basis by adapting to the directional regularity of a multivariate process. An algorithm for the estimation and identification of the change-of-basis matrix is constructed, made possible due to the unique replication structure of functional data. Non-asymptotic bounds are provided for our algorithm, supplemented by numerical evidence from an extensive simulation study. We discuss two possible applications of the directional regularity approach, and advocate its consideration as a standard pre-processing step in multivariate functional data analysis.
Average Causal Effect Estimation in DAGs with Hidden Variables: Extensions of Back-Door and Front-Door Criteria
The identification theory for causal effects in directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) with hidden variables is well-developed, but methods for estimating and inferring functionals beyond the g-formula remain limited. Previous studies have proposed semiparametric estimators for identifiable functionals in a broad class of DAGs with hidden variables. While demonstrating double robustness in some models, existing estimators face challenges, particularly with density estimation and numerical integration for continuous variables, and their estimates may fall outside the parameter space of the target estimand. Their asymptotic properties are also underexplored, especially when using flexible statistical and machine learning models for nuisance estimation. This study addresses these challenges by introducing novel one-step corrected plug-in and targeted minimum loss-based estimators of causal effects for a class of DAGs that extend classical back-door and front-door criteria (known as the treatment primal fixability criterion in prior literature). These estimators leverage machine learning to minimize modeling assumptions while ensuring key statistical properties such as asymptotic linearity, double robustness, efficiency, and staying within the bounds of the target parameter space. We establish conditions for nuisance functional estimates in terms of L2(P)-norms to achieve root-n consistent causal effect estimates. To facilitate practical application, we have developed the flexCausal package in R.
Can We Theoretically Quantify the Impacts of Local Updates on the Generalization Performance of Federated Learning?
Ju, Peizhong, Yang, Haibo, Liu, Jia, Liang, Yingbin, Shroff, Ness
Federated Learning (FL) has gained significant popularity due to its effectiveness in training machine learning models across diverse sites without requiring direct data sharing. While various algorithms along with their optimization analyses have shown that FL with local updates is a communication-efficient distributed learning framework, the generalization performance of FL with local updates has received comparatively less attention. This lack of investigation can be attributed to the complex interplay between data heterogeneity and infrequent communication due to the local updates within the FL framework. This motivates us to investigate a fundamental question in FL: Can we quantify the impact of data heterogeneity and local updates on the generalization performance for FL as the learning process evolves? To this end, we conduct a comprehensive theoretical study of FL's generalization performance using a linear model as the first step, where the data heterogeneity is considered for both the stationary and online/non-stationary cases. By providing closed-form expressions of the model error, we rigorously quantify the impact of the number of the local updates (denoted as $K$) under three settings ($K=1$, $K<\infty$, and $K=\infty$) and show how the generalization performance evolves with the number of rounds $t$. Our investigation also provides a comprehensive understanding of how different configurations (including the number of model parameters $p$ and the number of training samples $n$) contribute to the overall generalization performance, thus shedding new insights (such as benign overfitting) for implementing FL over networks.
DART2: a robust multiple testing method to smartly leverage helpful or misleading ancillary information
In many applications of multiple testing, ancillary information is available, reflecting the hypothesis null or alternative status. Several methods have been developed to leverage this ancillary information to enhance testing power, typically requiring the ancillary information is helpful enough to ensure favorable performance. In this paper, we develop a robust and effective distance-assisted multiple testing procedure named DART2, designed to be powerful and robust regardless of the quality of ancillary information. When the ancillary information is helpful, DART2 can asymptotically control FDR while improving power; otherwise, DART2 can still control FDR and maintain power at least as high as ignoring the ancillary information. We demonstrated DART2's superior performance compared to existing methods through numerical studies under various settings. In addition, DART2 has been applied to a gene association study where we have shown its superior accuracy and robustness under two different types of ancillary information.
Exploratory Visual Analysis for Increasing Data Readiness in Artificial Intelligence Projects
Tiger, Mattias, Jakobsson, Daniel, Ynnerman, Anders, Heintz, Fredrik, Jönsson, Daniel
We present experiences and lessons learned from increasing data readiness of heterogeneous data for artificial intelligence projects using visual analysis methods. Increasing the data readiness level involves understanding both the data as well as the context in which it is used, which are challenges well suitable to visual analysis. For this purpose, we contribute a mapping between data readiness aspects and visual analysis techniques suitable for different data types. We use the defined mapping to increase data readiness levels in use cases involving time-varying data, including numerical, categorical, and text. In addition to the mapping, we extend the data readiness concept to better take aspects of the task and solution into account and explicitly address distribution shifts during data collection time. We report on our experiences in using the presented visual analysis techniques to aid future artificial intelligence projects in raising the data readiness level.
Optimizing Feature Selection with Genetic Algorithms: A Review of Methods and Applications
Taha, Zhila Yaseen, Abdullah, Abdulhady Abas, Rashid, Tarik A.
Analyzing large datasets to select optimal features is one of the most important research areas in machine learning and data mining. This feature selection procedure involves dimensionality reduction which is crucial in enhancing the performance of the model, making it less complex. Recently, several types of attribute selection methods have been proposed that use different approaches to obtain representative subsets of the attributes. However, population-based evolutionary algorithms like Genetic Algorithms (GAs) have been proposed to provide remedies for these drawbacks by avoiding local optima and improving the selection process itself. This manuscript presents a sweeping review on GA-based feature selection techniques in applications and their effectiveness across different domains. This review was conducted using the PRISMA methodology; hence, the systematic identification, screening, and analysis of relevant literature were performed. Thus, our results hint that the field's hybrid GA methodologies including, but not limited to, GA-Wrapper feature selector and HGA-neural networks, have substantially improved their potential through the resolution of problems such as exploration of unnecessary search space, accuracy performance problems, and complexity. The conclusions of this paper would result in discussing the potential that GAs bear in feature selection and future research directions for their enhancement in applicability and performance.
Incorporating dense metric depth into neural 3D representations for view synthesis and relighting
Chaudhury, Arkadeep Narayan, Vasiljevic, Igor, Zakharov, Sergey, Guizilini, Vitor, Ambrus, Rares, Narasimhan, Srinivasa, Atkeson, Christopher G.
Synthesizing accurate geometry and photo-realistic appearance of small scenes is an active area of research with compelling use cases in gaming, virtual reality, robotic-manipulation, autonomous driving, convenient product capture, and consumer-level photography. When applying scene geometry and appearance estimation techniques to robotics, we found that the narrow cone of possible viewpoints due to the limited range of robot motion and scene clutter caused current estimation techniques to produce poor quality estimates or even fail. On the other hand, in robotic applications, dense metric depth can often be measured directly using stereo and illumination can be controlled. Depth can provide a good initial estimate of the object geometry to improve reconstruction, while multi-illumination images can facilitate relighting. In this work we demonstrate a method to incorporate dense metric depth into the training of neural 3D representations and address an artifact observed while jointly refining geometry and appearance by disambiguating between texture and geometry edges. We also discuss a multi-flash stereo camera system developed to capture the necessary data for our pipeline and show results on relighting and view synthesis with a few training views.