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 Statistical Learning


Uncertainty and Generalizability in Foundation Models for Earth Observation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We take the perspective in which we want to design a downstream task (such as estimating vegetation coverage) on a certain area of interest (AOI) with a limited labeling budget. By leveraging an existing Foundation Model (FM) we must decide whether we train a downstream model on a different but label-rich AOI hoping it generalizes to our AOI, or we split labels in our AOI for training and validating. In either case, we face choices concerning what FM to use, how to sample our AOI for labeling, etc. which affect both the performance and uncertainty of the results. In this work, we perform a large ablative study using eight existing FMs on either Sentinel 1 or Sentinel 2 as input data, and the classes from the ESA World Cover product as downstream tasks across eleven AOIs. We do repeated sampling and training, resulting in an ablation of some 500K simple linear regression models. Our results show both the limits of spatial generalizability across AOIs and the power of FMs where we are able to get over 0.9 correlation coefficient between predictions and targets on different chip level predictive tasks. And still, performance and uncertainty vary greatly across AOIs, tasks and FMs. We believe this is a key issue in practice, because there are many design decisions behind each FM and downstream task (input modalities, sampling, architectures, pretraining, etc.) and usually a downstream task designer is aware of and can decide upon a few of them. Through this work, we advocate for the usage of the methodology herein described (large ablations on reference global labels and simple probes), both when publishing new FMs, and to make informed decisions when designing downstream tasks to use them.


Can Kans (re)discover predictive models for Direct-Drive Laser Fusion?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The domain of laser fusion presents a unique and challenging predictive modeling application landscape for machine learning methods due to high problem complexity and limited training data. Data-driven approaches utilizing prescribed functional forms, inductive biases and physics-informed learning (PIL) schemes have been successful in the past for achieving desired generalization ability and model interpretation that aligns with physics expectations. In complex multi-physics application domains, however, it is not always obvious how architectural biases or discriminative penalties can be formulated. In this work, focusing on nuclear fusion energy using high powered lasers, we present the use of Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) as an alternative to PIL for developing a new type of data-driven predictive model which is able to achieve high prediction accuracy and physics interpretability. A KAN based model, a MLP with PIL, and a baseline MLP model are compared in generalization ability and interpretation with a domain expert-derived symbolic regression model. Through empirical studies in this high physics complexity domain, we show that KANs can potentially provide benefits when developing predictive models for data-starved physics applications.


Average-Reward Maximum Entropy Reinforcement Learning for Underactuated Double Pendulum Tasks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This report presents a solution for the swing-up and stabilisation tasks of the acrobot and the pendubot, developed for the AI Olympics competition at IROS 2024. Our approach employs the Average-Reward Entropy Advantage Policy Optimization (AR-EAPO), a model-free reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm that combines average-reward RL and maximum entropy RL. Results demonstrate that our controller achieves improved performance and robustness scores compared to established baseline methods in both the acrobot and pendubot scenarios, without the need for a heavily engineered reward function or system model. The current results are applicable exclusively to the simulation stage setup.


SLIM: Scalable and Lightweight LiDAR Mapping in Urban Environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

LiDAR point cloud maps are extensively utilized on roads for robot navigation due to their high consistency. However, dense point clouds face challenges of high memory consumption and reduced maintainability for long-term operations. In this study, we introduce SLIM, a scalable and lightweight mapping system for long-term LiDAR mapping in urban environments. The system begins by parameterizing structural point clouds into lines and planes. These lightweight and structural representations meet the requirements of map merging, pose graph optimization, and bundle adjustment, ensuring incremental management and local consistency. For long-term operations, a map-centric nonlinear factor recovery method is designed to sparsify poses while preserving mapping accuracy. We validate the SLIM system with multi-session real-world LiDAR data from classical LiDAR mapping datasets, including KITTI, NCLT, and HeLiPR. The experiments demonstrate its capabilities in mapping accuracy, lightweightness, and scalability. Map re-use is also verified through map-based robot localization. Ultimately, with multi-session LiDAR data, the SLIM system provides a globally consistent map with low memory consumption (130 KB/km). We have made our code open-source to benefit the community.


The Role of Explainable AI in Revolutionizing Human Health Monitoring

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The complex nature of disease mechanisms and the variability of patient symptoms present significant obstacles in developing effective diagnostic tools. Although machine learning has made considerable advances in medical diagnosis, its decision-making processes frequently lack transparency, which can jeopardize patient outcomes. This underscores the critical need for Explainable AI (XAI), which not only offers greater clarity but also has the potential to significantly improve patient care. In this literature review, we conduct a detailed analysis of analyzing XAI methods identified through searches across various databases, focusing on chronic conditions such as Parkinson's, stroke, depression, cancer, heart disease, and Alzheimer's disease. The literature search revealed the application of 9 trending XAI algorithms in the field of healthcare and highlighted the pros and cons of each of them. Thus, the article is concluded with a critical appraisal of the challenges and future research opportunities for XAI in human health monitoring.


Multi-intent Aware Contrastive Learning for Sequential Recommendation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Intent is a significant latent factor influencing user-item interaction sequences. Prevalent sequence recommendation models that utilize contrastive learning predominantly rely on single-intent representations to direct the training process. However, this paradigm oversimplifies real-world recommendation scenarios, attempting to encapsulate the diversity of intents within the single-intent level representation. SR models considering multi-intent information in their framework are more likely to reflect real-life recommendation scenarios accurately. To this end, we propose a Multi-intent Aware Contrastive Learning for Sequential Recommendation (MCLRec). It integrates an intent-aware user representation learning method to enable multi-intent recognition within interaction sequences through the spatial relationships between user and intent representations. We further propose a multi-intent aware contrastive learning strategy to mitigate the impact of pair-wise representations with high similarity. Experimental results on widely used four datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method for sequential recommendation.


NeSHFS: Neighborhood Search with Heuristic-based Feature Selection for Click-Through Rate Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Click-through-rate (CTR) prediction plays an important role in online advertising and ad recommender systems. In the past decade, maximizing CTR has been the main focus of model development and solution creation. Therefore, researchers and practitioners have proposed various models and solutions to enhance the effectiveness of CTR prediction. Most of the existing literature focuses on capturing either implicit or explicit feature interactions. Although implicit interactions are successfully captured in some studies, explicit interactions present a challenge for achieving high CTR by extracting both low-order and high-order feature interactions. Unnecessary and irrelevant features may cause high computational time and low prediction performance. Furthermore, certain features may perform well with specific predictive models while underperforming with others. Also, feature distribution may fluctuate due to traffic variations. Most importantly, in live production environments, resources are limited, and the time for inference is just as crucial as training time. Because of all these reasons, feature selection is one of the most important factors in enhancing CTR prediction model performance. Simple filter-based feature selection algorithms do not perform well and they are not sufficient. An effective and efficient feature selection algorithm is needed to consistently filter the most useful features during live CTR prediction process. In this paper, we propose a heuristic algorithm named Neighborhood Search with Heuristic-based Feature Selection (NeSHFS) to enhance CTR prediction performance while reducing dimensionality and training time costs. We conduct comprehensive experiments on three public datasets to validate the efficiency and effectiveness of our proposed solution.


SynSUM -- Synthetic Benchmark with Structured and Unstructured Medical Records

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present the SynSUM benchmark, a synthetic dataset linking unstructured clinical notes to structured background variables. The dataset consists of 10,000 artificial patient records containing tabular variables (like symptoms, diagnoses and underlying conditions) and related notes describing the fictional patient encounter in the domain of respiratory diseases. The tabular portion of the data is generated through a Bayesian network, where both the causal structure between the variables and the conditional probabilities are proposed by an expert based on domain knowledge. We then prompt a large language model (GPT-4o) to generate a clinical note related to this patient encounter, describing the patient symptoms and additional context. The SynSUM dataset is primarily designed to facilitate research on clinical information extraction in the presence of tabular background variables, which can be linked through domain knowledge to concepts of interest to be extracted from the text - the symptoms, in the case of SynSUM. Secondary uses include research on the automation of clinical reasoning over both tabular data and text, causal effect estimation in the presence of tabular and/or textual confounders, and multi-modal synthetic data generation. The dataset can be downloaded from https://github.com/prabaey/SynSUM.


AutoIRT: Calibrating Item Response Theory Models with Automated Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Item response theory (IRT) is a class of interpretable factor models that are widely used in computerized adaptive tests (CATs), such as language proficiency tests. Traditionally, these are fit using parametric mixed effects models on the probability of a test taker getting the correct answer to a test item (i.e., question). Neural net extensions of these models, such as BertIRT, require specialized architectures and parameter tuning. We propose a multistage fitting procedure that is compatible with out-of-the-box Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) tools. It is based on a Monte Carlo EM (MCEM) outer loop with a two stage inner loop, which trains a non-parametric AutoML grade model using item features followed by an item specific parametric model. This greatly accelerates the modeling workflow for scoring tests. We demonstrate its effectiveness by applying it to the Duolingo English Test, a high stakes, online English proficiency test. We show that the resulting model is typically more well calibrated, gets better predictive performance, and more accurate scores than existing methods (non-explanatory IRT models and explanatory IRT models like BERT-IRT). Along the way, we provide a brief survey of machine learning methods for calibration of item parameters for CATs.


Multi forests: Variable importance for multi-class outcomes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In prediction tasks with multi-class outcomes, identifying covariates specifically associated with one or more outcome classes can be important. Conventional variable importance measures (VIMs) from random forests (RFs), like permutation and Gini importance, focus on overall predictive performance or node purity, without differentiating between the classes. Therefore, they can be expected to fail to distinguish class-associated covariates from covariates that only distinguish between groups of classes. We introduce a VIM called multi-class VIM, tailored for identifying exclusively class-associated covariates, via a novel RF variant called multi forests (MuFs). The trees in MuFs use both multi-way and binary splitting. The multi-way splits generate child nodes for each class, using a split criterion that evaluates how well these nodes represent their respective classes. This setup forms the basis of the multi-class VIM, which measures the discriminatory ability of the splits performed in the respective covariates with regard to this split criterion. Alongside the multi-class VIM, we introduce a second VIM, the discriminatory VIM. This measure, based on the binary splits, assesses the strength of the general influence of the covariates, irrespective of their class-associatedness. Simulation studies demonstrate that the multi-class VIM specifically ranks class-associated covariates highly, unlike conventional VIMs which also rank other types of covariates highly. Analyses of 121 datasets reveal that MuFs often have slightly lower predictive performance compared to conventional RFs. This is, however, not a limiting factor given the algorithm's primary purpose of calculating the multi-class VIM.