Calibration ensures that predicted uncertainties align with observed uncertainties. While there is an extensive literature on recalibration methods for univariate probabilistic forecasts, work on calibration for multivariate forecasts is much more limited. This paper introduces a novel post-hoc recalibration approach that addresses multivariate calibration for potentially misspecified models. Our method involves constructing local mappings between vectors of marginal probability integral transform values and the space of observations, providing a flexible and model free solution applicable to continuous, discrete, and mixed responses. We present two versions of our approach: one uses K-nearest neighbors, and the other uses normalizing flows. Each method has its own strengths in different situations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on two real data applications: recalibrating a deep neural network's currency exchange rate forecast and improving a regression model for childhood malnutrition in India for which the multivariate response has both discrete and continuous components.

This work introduces a framework to diagnose the strengths and shortcomings of Autonomous Vehicle (AV) collision avoidance technology with synthetic yet realistic potential collision scenarios adapted from real-world, collision-free data. Our framework generates counterfactual collisions with diverse crash properties, e.g., crash angle and velocity, between an adversary and a target vehicle by adding perturbations to the adversary's predicted trajectory from a learned AV behavior model. Our main contribution is to ground these adversarial perturbations in realistic behavior as defined through the lens of data-alignment in the behavior model's parameter space. Then, we cluster these synthetic counterfactuals to identify plausible and representative collision scenarios to form the basis of a test suite for downstream AV system evaluation. We demonstrate our framework using two state-of-the-art behavior prediction models as sources of realistic adversarial perturbations, and show that our scenario clustering evokes interpretable failure modes from a baseline AV policy under evaluation.

Despite being an integral tool for finding health-related information online, YouTube has faced criticism for disseminating COVID-19 misinformation globally to its users. Yet, prior audit studies have predominantly investigated YouTube within the Global North contexts, often overlooking the Global South. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive 10-day geolocation-based audit on YouTube to compare the prevalence of COVID-19 misinformation in search results between the United States (US) and South Africa (SA), the countries heavily affected by the pandemic in the Global North and the Global South, respectively. For each country, we selected 3 geolocations and placed sock-puppets, or bots emulating "real" users, that collected search results for 48 search queries sorted by 4 search filters for 10 days, yielding a dataset of 915K results. We found that 31.55% of the top-10 search results contained COVID-19 misinformation. Among the top-10 search results, bots in SA faced significantly more misinformative search results than their US counterparts. Overall, our study highlights the contrasting algorithmic behaviors of YouTube search between two countries, underscoring the need for the platform to regulate algorithmic behavior consistently across different regions of the Globe.

Accurate energy demand forecasting is crucial for sustainable and resilient energy development. To meet the Net Zero Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) $4.5$ scenario in the DACH countries, increased renewable energy production, energy storage, and reduced commercial building consumption are needed. This scenario's success depends on hydroelectric capacity and climatic factors. Informed decisions require quantifying uncertainty in forecasts. This study explores a non-parametric method based on \emph{reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS)}, known as kernel quantile regression, for energy prediction. Our experiments demonstrate its reliability and sharpness, and we benchmark it against state-of-the-art methods in load and price forecasting for the DACH region. We offer our implementation in conjunction with additional scripts to ensure the reproducibility of our research.

Recent studies revealed structural and functional brain changes in heavy smokers. However, the specific changes in topological brain connections are not well understood. We used Gaussian Undirected Graphs with the graphical lasso algorithm on rs-fMRI data from smokers and non-smokers to identify significant changes in brain connections. Our results indicate high stability in the estimated graphs and identify several brain regions significantly affected by smoking, providing valuable insights for future clinical research.

In this paper, we study a class of deterministically constrained stochastic optimization problems. Existing methods typically aim to find an $\epsilon$-stochastic stationary point, where the expected violations of both constraints and first-order stationarity are within a prescribed accuracy $\epsilon$. However, in many practical applications, it is crucial that the constraints be nearly satisfied with certainty, making such an $\epsilon$-stochastic stationary point potentially undesirable due to the risk of significant constraint violations. To address this issue, we propose single-loop variance-reduced stochastic first-order methods, where the stochastic gradient of the stochastic component is computed using either a truncated recursive momentum scheme or a truncated Polyak momentum scheme for variance reduction, while the gradient of the deterministic component is computed exactly. Under the error bound condition with a parameter $\theta \geq 1$ and other suitable assumptions, we establish that the proposed methods achieve a sample complexity and first-order operation complexity of $\widetilde O(\epsilon^{-\max\{4, 2\theta\}})$ for finding a stronger $\epsilon$-stochastic stationary point, where the constraint violation is within $\epsilon$ with certainty, and the expected violation of first-order stationarity is within $\epsilon$. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to develop methods with provable complexity guarantees for finding an approximate stochastic stationary point of such problems that nearly satisfies all constraints with certainty.

This paper proposes a knowledge-enhanced disease diagnosis method based on a prompt learning framework. The method retrieves structured knowledge from external knowledge graphs related to clinical cases, encodes it, and injects it into the prompt templates to enhance the language model's understanding and reasoning capabilities for the task.We conducted experiments on three public datasets: CHIP-CTC, IMCS-V2-NER, and KUAKE-QTR. The results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms existing models across multiple evaluation metrics, with an F1 score improvement of 2.4% on the CHIP-CTC dataset, 3.1% on the IMCS-V2-NER dataset,and 4.2% on the KUAKE-QTR dataset. Additionally,ablation studies confirmed the critical role of the knowledge injection module,as the removal of this module resulted in a significant drop in F1 score. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method not only effectively improves the accuracy of disease diagnosis but also enhances the interpretability of the predictions, providing more reliable support and evidence for clinical diagnosis.

In the era of big data, ensuring the quality of datasets has become increasingly crucial across various domains. We propose a comprehensive framework designed to automatically assess and rectify data quality issues in any given dataset, regardless of its specific content, focusing on both textual and numerical data. Our primary objective is to address three fundamental types of defects: absence, redundancy, and incoherence. At the heart of our approach lies a rigorous demand for both explainability and interpretability, ensuring that the rationale behind the identification and correction of data anomalies is transparent and understandable. To achieve this, we adopt a hybrid approach that integrates statistical methods with machine learning algorithms. Indeed, by leveraging statistical techniques alongside machine learning, we strike a balance between accuracy and explainability, enabling users to trust and comprehend the assessment process. Acknowledging the challenges associated with automating the data quality assessment process, particularly in terms of time efficiency and accuracy, we adopt a pragmatic strategy, employing resource-intensive algorithms only when necessary, while favoring simpler, more efficient solutions whenever possible. Through a practical analysis conducted on a publicly provided dataset, we illustrate the challenges that arise when trying to enhance data quality while keeping explainability. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in detecting and rectifying missing values, duplicates and typographical errors as well as the challenges remaining to be addressed to achieve similar accuracy on statistical outliers and logic errors under the constraints set in our work.

Power efficiency remains a significant challenge in modern optical fiber communication systems, driving efforts to reduce the computational complexity of digital signal processing, particularly in chromatic dispersion compensation (CDC) algorithms. While various strategies for complexity reduction have been proposed, many lack the necessary hardware implementation to validate their benefits. This paper provides a theoretical analysis of the tap overlapping effect in CDC filters for coherent receivers, introduces a novel Time-Domain Clustered Equalizer (TDCE) technique based on this concept, and presents a Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) implementation for validation. We developed an innovative parallelization method for TDCE, implementing it in hardware for fiber lengths up to 640 km. A fair comparison with the state-of-the-art frequency domain equalizer (FDE) under identical conditions is also conducted. Our findings highlight that implementation strategies, including parallelization and memory management, are as crucial as computational complexity in determining hardware complexity and energy efficiency. The proposed TDCE hardware implementation achieves up to 70.7\% energy savings and 71.4\% multiplier usage savings compared to FDE, despite its higher computational complexity.

We study the oracle complexity of nonsmooth nonconvex optimization, with the algorithm assumed to have access only to local function information. It has been shown by Davis, Drusvyatskiy, and Jiang (2023) that for nonsmooth Lipschitz functions satisfying certain regularity and strictness conditions, perturbed gradient descent converges to local minimizers asymptotically. Motivated by this result and by other recent algorithmic advances in nonconvex nonsmooth optimization concerning Goldstein stationarity, we consider the question of obtaining a non-asymptotic rate of convergence to local minima for this problem class. We provide the following negative answer to this question: Local algorithms acting on regular Lipschitz functions cannot, in the worst case, provide meaningful local guarantees in terms of function value in sub-exponential time, even when all near-stationary points are global minima. This sharply contrasts with the smooth setting, for which it is well-known that standard gradient methods can do so in a dimension-independent rate. Our result complements the rich body of work in the theoretical computer science literature that provide hardness results conditional on conjectures such as $\mathsf{P}\neq\mathsf{NP}$ or cryptographic assumptions, in that ours holds unconditional of any such assumptions.