Geographical random forest (GRF) is a recently developed and spatially explicit machine learning model. With the ability to provide more accurate predictions and local interpretations, GRF has already been used in many studies. The current GRF model, however, has limitations in its determination of the local model weight and bandwidth hyperparameters, potentially insufficient numbers of local training samples, and sometimes high local prediction errors. Also, implemented as an R package, GRF currently does not have a Python version which limits its adoption among machine learning practitioners who prefer Python. This work addresses these limitations by introducing theory-informed hyperparameter determination, local training sample expansion, and spatially-weighted local prediction. We also develop a Python-based GRF model and package, PyGRF, to facilitate the use of the model. We evaluate the performance of PyGRF on an example dataset and further demonstrate its use in two case studies in public health and natural disasters.

High-resolution flood probability maps are essential for addressing the limitations of existing flood risk assessment approaches but are often limited by the availability of historical event data. Also, producing simulated data needed for creating probabilistic flood maps using physics-based models involves significant computation and time effort inhibiting the feasibility. To address this gap, this study introduces Flood-Precip GAN (Flood-Precipitation Generative Adversarial Network), a novel methodology that leverages generative machine learning to simulate large-scale synthetic inundation data to produce probabilistic flood maps. With a focus on Harris County, Texas, Flood-Precip GAN begins with training a cell-wise depth estimator using a limited number of physics-based model-generated precipitation-flood events. This model, which emphasizes precipitation-based features, outperforms universal models. Subsequently, a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) with constraints is employed to conditionally generate synthetic precipitation records. Strategic thresholds are established to filter these records, ensuring close alignment with true precipitation patterns. For each cell, synthetic events are smoothed using a K-nearest neighbors algorithm and processed through the depth estimator to derive synthetic depth distributions. By iterating this procedure and after generating 10,000 synthetic precipitation-flood events, we construct flood probability maps in various formats, considering different inundation depths. Validation through similarity and correlation metrics confirms the fidelity of the synthetic depth distributions relative to true data. Flood-Precip GAN provides a scalable solution for generating synthetic flood depth data needed to create high-resolution flood probability maps, significantly enhancing flood preparedness and mitigation efforts.

We consider industrial federated learning, a collaboration between a small number of powerful, potentially competing industrial players, mediated by a third party aspiring to improve the service it provides to its customers. We argue that this configuration harbours covert privacy risks that do not arise in e.g. cross-device settings. Companies are very protective of their intellectual property and production processes. Information about changes to their production and the timing of which is to be kept private. We study a scenario in which one of the collaborators infers changes to their competitors' production by detecting potentially subtle temporal data distribution shifts. In this framing, a data distribution shift is always problematic, even if it has no negative effect on training convergence. Thus, our goal is to find means that allow the detection of distributional shifts better than customary evaluation metrics. Based on the assumption that even minor shifts translate into the collaboratively learned machine learning model, the attacker tracks the shared models' internal state with a selection of metrics from literature in order to pick up on relevant changes. In an empirical study on benchmark datasets, we show an honest-but-curious attacker to be capable of detecting subtle distributional shifts on other clients, in some cases long before they become obvious in evaluation.

Aerosol effects on climate, weather, and air quality depend on characteristics of individual particles, which are tremendously diverse and change in time. Particle-resolved models are the only models able to capture this diversity in particle physiochemical properties, and these models are computationally expensive. As a strategy for accelerating particle-resolved microphysics models, we introduce Graph-based Learning of Aerosol Dynamics (GLAD) and use this model to train a surrogate of the particle-resolved model PartMC-MOSAIC. GLAD implements a Graph Network-based Simulator (GNS), a machine learning framework that has been used to simulate particle-based fluid dynamics models. In GLAD, each particle is represented as a node in a graph, and the evolution of the particle population over time is simulated through learned message passing. We demonstrate our GNS approach on a simple aerosol system that includes condensation of sulfuric acid onto particles composed of sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, and water. A graph with particles as nodes is constructed, and a graph neural network (GNN) is then trained using the model output from PartMC-MOSAIC. The trained GNN can then be used for simulating and predicting aerosol dynamics over time. Results demonstrate the framework's ability to accurately learn chemical dynamics and generalize across different scenarios, achieving efficient training and prediction times. We evaluate the performance across three scenarios, highlighting the framework's robustness and adaptability in modeling aerosol microphysics and chemistry.

Identifying and understanding dynamic concepts in co-evolving sequences is crucial for analyzing complex systems such as IoT applications, financial markets, and online activity logs. These concepts provide valuable insights into the underlying structures and behaviors of sequential data, enabling better decision-making and forecasting. This paper introduces Wormhole, a novel deep representation learning framework that is concept-aware and designed for co-evolving time sequences. Our model presents a self-representation layer and a temporal smoothness constraint to ensure robust identification of dynamic concepts and their transitions. Additionally, concept transitions are detected by identifying abrupt changes in the latent space, signifying a shift to new behavior - akin to passing through a wormhole. This novel mechanism accurately discerns concepts within co-evolving sequences and pinpoints the exact locations of these wormholes, enhancing the interpretability of the learned representations. Experiments demonstrate that this method can effectively segment time series data into meaningful concepts, providing a valuable tool for analyzing complex temporal patterns and advancing the detection of concept drifts.

Understanding the structure and motion of the heart is crucial for diagnosing and managing cardiovascular diseases, the leading cause of global death. There is wide variation in cardiac shape and motion patterns, that are influenced by demographic, anthropometric and disease factors. Unravelling the normal patterns of shape and motion, as well as understanding how each individual deviates from the norm, would facilitate accurate diagnosis and personalised treatment strategies. To this end, we developed a novel conditional generative model, MeshHeart, to learn the distribution of cardiac shape and motion patterns. MeshHeart is capable of generating 3D+t cardiac mesh sequences, taking into account clinical factors such as age, sex, weight and height. To model the high-dimensional and complex spatio-temporal mesh data, MeshHeart employs a geometric encoder to represent cardiac meshes in a latent space, followed by a temporal Transformer to model the motion dynamics of latent representations. Based on MeshHeart, we investigate the latent space of 3D+t cardiac mesh sequences and propose a novel distance metric termed latent delta, which quantifies the deviation of a real heart from its personalised normative pattern in the latent space. In experiments using a large dataset of 38,309 subjects, MeshHeart demonstrates a high performance in cardiac mesh sequence reconstruction and generation. Features defined in the latent space are highly discriminative for cardiac disease classification, whereas the latent delta exhibits strong correlation with clinical phenotypes in phenome-wide association studies. The codes and models of this study will be released to benefit further research on digital heart modelling.

Human trajectory data, which plays a crucial role in various applications such as crowd management and epidemic prevention, is challenging to obtain due to practical constraints and privacy concerns. In this context, synthetic human trajectory data is generated to simulate as close as possible to real-world human trajectories, often under summary statistics and distributional similarities. However, the complexity of human mobility patterns is oversimplified by these similarities (a.k.a. ``Datasaurus''), resulting in intrinsic biases in both generative model design and benchmarks of the generated trajectories. Against this background, we propose MIRAGE, a huMan-Imitative tRAjectory GenErative model designed as a neural Temporal Point Process integrating an Exploration and Preferential Return model. It imitates the human decision-making process in trajectory generation, rather than fitting any specific statistical distributions as traditional methods do, thus avoiding the Datasaurus issue. Moreover, we also propose a comprehensive task-based evaluation protocol beyond Datasaurus to systematically benchmark trajectory generative models on four typical downstream tasks, integrating multiple techniques and evaluation metrics for each task, to comprehensively assess the ultimate utility of the generated trajectories. We conduct a thorough evaluation of MIRAGE on three real-world user trajectory datasets against a sizeable collection of baselines. Results show that compared to the best baselines, MIRAGE-generated trajectory data not only achieves the best statistical and distributional similarities with 59.0-71.5% improvement, but also yields the best performance in the task-based evaluation with 10.9-33.4% improvement.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are powerful deep learning models designed for graph-structured data, demonstrating effectiveness across a wide range of applications.The softmax function is the most commonly used classifier for semi-supervised node classification. However, the softmax function lacks spatial information of the graph structure. In this paper, we propose a graph similarity regularized softmax for GNNs in semi-supervised node classification. By incorporating non-local total variation (TV) regularization into the softmax activation function, we can more effectively capture the spatial information inherent in graphs. The weights in the non-local gradient and divergence operators are determined based on the graph's adjacency matrix. We apply the proposed method into the architecture of GCN and GraphSAGE, testing them on citation and webpage linking datasets, respectively. Numerical experiments demonstrate its good performance in node classification and generalization capabilities. These results indicate that the graph similarity regularized softmax is effective on both assortative and disassortative graphs.

Federated learning (FL) leverages client-server communications to train global models on decentralized data. However, communication noise or errors can impair model accuracy. To address this problem, we propose a novel FL algorithm that enhances robustness against communication noise while also reducing communication load. We derive the proposed algorithm through solving the weighted least-squares (WLS) regression problem as an illustrative example. We first frame WLS regression as a distributed convex optimization problem over a federated network employing random scheduling for improved communication efficiency. We then apply the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) to iteratively solve this problem. To counteract the detrimental effects of cumulative communication noise, we introduce a key modification by eliminating the dual variable and implementing a new local model update at each participating client. This subtle yet effective change results in using a single noisy global model update at each client instead of two, improving robustness against additive communication noise. Furthermore, we incorporate another modification enabling clients to continue local updates even when not selected by the server, leading to substantial performance improvements. Our theoretical analysis confirms the convergence of our algorithm in both mean and the mean-square senses, even when the server communicates with a random subset of clients over noisy links at each iteration. Numerical results validate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm and corroborate our theoretical findings.

Survival analysis is a critical tool for analyzing time-to-event data and extracting valuable clinical insights. Recently, numerous machine learning techniques leveraging neural networks and decision trees have been developed for this task. Among these, the most successful approaches often rely on specific assumptions about the shape of the modeled hazard function. These assumptions include proportional hazard, accelerated failure time, or discrete estimation at a predefined set of time points. In this study, we propose a novel paradigm for survival model design based on the weighted sum of individual fully parametric hazard contributions. We build upon well-known ensemble techniques to deliver a novel contribution to the field by applying additive hazard functions, improving over approaches based on survival or cumulative hazard functions. Furthermore, the proposed model, which we call FPBoost, is the first algorithm to directly optimize the survival likelihood via gradient boosting. We evaluated our approach across a diverse set of datasets, comparing it against a variety of state-of-the-art models. The results demonstrate that FPBoost improves risk estimation, according to both concordance and calibration metrics.