Statistical Learning
A parametric framework for kernel-based dynamic mode decomposition using deep learning
Kevopoulos, Konstantinos, Ye, Dongwei
Surrogate modelling is widely applied in computational science and engineering to mitigate computational efficiency issues for the real-time simulations of complex and large-scale computational models or for many-query scenarios, such as uncertainty quantification and design optimisation. In this work, we propose a parametric framework for kernel-based dynamic mode decomposition method based on the linear and nonlinear disambiguation optimization (LANDO) algorithm. The proposed parametric framework consists of two stages, offline and online. The offline stage prepares the essential component for prediction, namely a series of LANDO models that emulate the dynamics of the system with particular parameters from a training dataset. The online stage leverages those LANDO models to generate new data at a desired time instant, and approximate the mapping between parameters and the state with the data using deep learning techniques. Moreover, dimensionality reduction technique is applied to high-dimensional dynamical systems to reduce the computational cost of training. Three numerical examples including Lotka-Volterra model, heat equation and reaction-diffusion equation are presented to demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed framework.
Enhancing Feature Selection and Interpretability in AI Regression Tasks Through Feature Attribution
Hinterleitner, Alexander, Bartz-Beielstein, Thomas, Schulz, Richard, Spengler, Sebastian, Winter, Thomas, Leitenmeier, Christoph
Research in Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is increasing, aiming to make deep learning models more transparent. Most XAI methods focus on justifying the decisions made by Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems in security-relevant applications. However, relatively little attention has been given to using these methods to improve the performance and robustness of deep learning algorithms. Additionally, much of the existing XAI work primarily addresses classification problems. In this study, we investigate the potential of feature attribution methods to filter out uninformative features in input data for regression problems, thereby improving the accuracy and stability of predictions. We introduce a feature selection pipeline that combines Integrated Gradients with k-means clustering to select an optimal set of variables from the initial data space. To validate the effectiveness of this approach, we apply it to a real-world industrial problem - blade vibration analysis in the development process of turbo machinery.
A Time Series is Worth Five Experts: Heterogeneous Mixture of Experts for Traffic Flow Prediction
Wang, Guangyu, Chen, Yujie, Gao, Ming, Wu, Zhiqiao, Tang, Jiafu, Zhao, Jiabi
Accurate traffic prediction faces significant challenges, necessitating a deep understanding of both temporal and spatial cues and their complex interactions across multiple variables. Recent advancements in traffic prediction systems are primarily due to the development of complex sequence-centric models. However, existing approaches often embed multiple variables and spatial relationships at each time step, which may hinder effective variable-centric learning, ultimately leading to performance degradation in traditional traffic prediction tasks. To overcome these limitations, we introduce variable-centric and prior knowledge-centric modeling techniques. Specifically, we propose a Heterogeneous Mixture of Experts (TITAN) model for traffic flow prediction. TITAN initially consists of three experts focused on sequence-centric modeling. Then, designed a low-rank adaptive method, TITAN simultaneously enables variable-centric modeling. Furthermore, we supervise the gating process using a prior knowledge-centric modeling strategy to ensure accurate routing. Experiments on two public traffic network datasets, METR-LA and PEMS-BAY, demonstrate that TITAN effectively captures variable-centric dependencies while ensuring accurate routing. Consequently, it achieves improvements in all evaluation metrics, ranging from approximately 4.37\% to 11.53\%, compared to previous state-of-the-art (SOTA) models. The code is open at \href{https://github.com/sqlcow/TITAN}{https://github.com/sqlcow/TITAN}.
MCI-GRU: Stock Prediction Model Based on Multi-Head Cross-Attention and Improved GRU
Zhu, Peng, Li, Yuante, Hu, Yifan, Xiang, Sheng, Liu, Qinyuan, Cheng, Dawei, Liang, Yuqi
As financial markets grow increasingly complex in the big data era, accurate stock prediction has become more critical. Traditional time series models, such as GRUs, have been widely used but often struggle to capture the intricate nonlinear dynamics of markets, particularly in the flexible selection and effective utilization of key historical information. Recently, methods like Graph Neural Networks and Reinforcement Learning have shown promise in stock prediction but require high data quality and quantity, and they tend to exhibit instability when dealing with data sparsity and noise. Moreover, the training and inference processes for these models are typically complex and computationally expensive, limiting their broad deployment in practical applications. Existing approaches also generally struggle to capture unobservable latent market states effectively, such as market sentiment and expectations, microstructural factors, and participant behavior patterns, leading to an inadequate understanding of market dynamics and subsequently impact prediction accuracy. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a stock prediction model, MCI-GRU, based on a multi-head cross-attention mechanism and an improved GRU. First, we enhance the GRU model by replacing the reset gate with an attention mechanism, thereby increasing the model's flexibility in selecting and utilizing historical information. Second, we design a multi-head cross-attention mechanism for learning unobservable latent market state representations, which are further enriched through interactions with both temporal features and cross-sectional features. Finally, extensive experiments on four main stock markets show that the proposed method outperforms SOTA techniques across multiple metrics. Additionally, its successful application in real-world fund management operations confirms its effectiveness and practicality.
Application of AI-based Models for Online Fraud Detection and Analysis
Papasavva, Antonis, Johnson, Shane, Lowther, Ed, Lundrigan, Samantha, Mariconti, Enrico, Markovska, Anna, Tuptuk, Nilufer
Fraud is a prevalent offence that extends beyond financial loss, causing psychological and physical harm to victims. The advancements in online communication technologies alowed for online fraud to thrive in this vast network, with fraudsters increasingly using these channels for deception. With the progression of technologies like AI, there is a growing concern that fraud will scale up, using sophisticated methods, like deep-fakes in phishing campaigns, all generated by language generation models like ChatGPT. However, the application of AI in detecting and analyzing online fraud remains understudied. We conduct a Systematic Literature Review on AI and NLP techniques for online fraud detection. The review adhered the PRISMA-ScR protocol, with eligibility criteria including relevance to online fraud, use of text data, and AI methodologies. We screened 2,457 academic records, 350 met our eligibility criteria, and included 223. We report the state-of-the-art NLP techniques for analysing various online fraud categories; the training data sources; the NLP algorithms and models built; and the performance metrics employed for model evaluation. We find that current research on online fraud is divided into various scam activitiesand identify 16 different frauds that researchers focus on. This SLR enhances the academic understanding of AI-based detection methods for online fraud and offers insights for policymakers, law enforcement, and businesses on safeguarding against such activities. We conclude that focusing on specific scams lacks generalization, as multiple models are required for different fraud types. The evolving nature of scams limits the effectiveness of models trained on outdated data. We also identify issues in data limitations, training bias reporting, and selective presentation of metrics in model performance reporting, which can lead to potential biases in model evaluation.
Dataset Distillation-based Hybrid Federated Learning on Non-IID Data
Shi, Xiufang, Zhang, Wei, Wu, Mincheng, Liu, Guangyi, Wen, Zhenyu, He, Shibo, Shah, Tejal, Ranjan, Rajiv
In federated learning, the heterogeneity of client data has a great impact on the performance of model training. Many heterogeneity issues in this process are raised by non-independently and identically distributed (Non-IID) data. This study focuses on the issue of label distribution skew. To address it, we propose a hybrid federated learning framework called HFLDD, which integrates dataset distillation to generate approximately independent and equally distributed (IID) data, thereby improving the performance of model training. Particularly, we partition the clients into heterogeneous clusters, where the data labels among different clients within a cluster are unbalanced while the data labels among different clusters are balanced. The cluster headers collect distilled data from the corresponding cluster members, and conduct model training in collaboration with the server. This training process is like traditional federated learning on IID data, and hence effectively alleviates the impact of Non-IID data on model training. Furthermore, we compare our proposed method with typical baseline methods on public datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that when the data labels are severely imbalanced, the proposed HFLDD outperforms the baseline methods in terms of both test accuracy and communication cost.
Functional Classification of Spiking Signal Data Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques: A Review
Sharifrazi, Danial, Javed, Nouman, Joloudari, Javad Hassannataj, Alizadehsani, Roohallah, Paradkar, Prasad N., Tan, Ru-San, Acharya, U. Rajendra, Bhatti, Asim
Human brain neuron activities are incredibly significant nowadays. Neuronal behavior is assessed by analyzing signal data such as electroencephalography (EEG), which can offer scientists valuable information about diseases and human-computer interaction. One of the difficulties researchers confront while evaluating these signals is the existence of large volumes of spike data. Spikes are some considerable parts of signal data that can happen as a consequence of vital biomarkers or physical issues such as electrode movements. Hence, distinguishing types of spikes is important. From this spot, the spike classification concept commences. Previously, researchers classified spikes manually. The manual classification was not precise enough as it involves extensive analysis. Consequently, Artificial Intelligence (AI) was introduced into neuroscience to assist clinicians in classifying spikes correctly. This review discusses the importance and use of AI in spike classification, focusing on the recognition of neural activity noises. The task is divided into three main components: preprocessing, classification, and evaluation. Existing methods are introduced and their importance is determined. The review also highlights the need for more efficient algorithms. The primary goal is to provide a perspective on spike classification for future research and provide a comprehensive understanding of the methodologies and issues involved. The review organizes materials in the spike classification field for future studies. In this work, numerous studies were extracted from different databases. The PRISMA-related research guidelines were then used to choose papers. Then, research studies based on spike classification using machine learning and deep learning approaches with effective preprocessing were selected.
Broadcast Product: Shape-aligned Element-wise Multiplication and Beyond
Matsui, Yusuke, Yokota, Tatsuya
We propose a new operator defined between two tensors, the broadcast product. The broadcast product calculates the Hadamard product after duplicating elements to align the shapes of the two tensors. Complex tensor operations in libraries like \texttt{numpy} can be succinctly represented as mathematical expressions using the broadcast product. Finally, we propose a novel tensor decomposition using the broadcast product, highlighting its potential applications in dimensionality reduction.
Tactile Probabilistic Contact Dynamics Estimation of Unknown Objects
Kim, Jinhoo, Zhu, Yifan, Dollar, Aaron
We study the problem of rapidly identifying contact dynamics of unknown objects in partially known environments. The key innovation of our method is a novel formulation of the contact dynamics estimation problem as the joint estimation of contact geometries and physical parameters. We leverage DeepSDF, a compact and expressive neural-network-based geometry representation over a distribution of geometries, and adopt a particle filter to estimate both the geometries in contact and the physical parameters. In addition, we couple the estimator with an active exploration strategy that plans information-gathering moves to further expedite online estimation. Through simulation and physical experiments, we show that our method estimates accurate contact dynamics with fewer than 30 exploration moves for unknown objects touching partially known environments.
Website visits can predict angler presence using machine learning
Schmid, Julia S., Simmons, Sean, Lewis, Mark A., Poesch, Mark S., Ramazi, Pouria
Understanding and predicting recreational fishing activity is important for sustainable fisheries management. However, traditional methods of measuring fishing pressure, such as surveys, can be costly and limited in both time and spatial extent. Predictive models that relate fishing activity to environmental or economic factors typically rely on historical data, which often restricts their spatial applicability due to data scarcity. In this study, high-resolution angler-generated data from an online platform and easily accessible auxiliary data were tested to predict daily boat presence and aerial counts of boats at almost 200 lakes over five years in Ontario, Canada. Lake-information website visits alone enabled predicting daily angler boat presence with 78% accuracy. While incorporating additional environmental, socio-ecological, weather and angler-generated features into machine learning models did not remarkably improve prediction performance of boat presence, they were substantial for the prediction of boat counts. Models achieved an R2 of up to 0.77 at known lakes included in the model training, but they performed poorly for unknown lakes (R2 = 0.21). The results demonstrate the value of integrating angler-generated data from online platforms into predictive models and highlight the potential of machine learning models to enhance fisheries management.