We present an efficient and practical algorithm for the online prediction of discrete-time linear dynamical systems with a symmetric transition matrix. We circumvent the non-convex optimization problem using improper learning: carefully overparameterize the class of LDSs by a polylogarithmic factor, in exchange for convexity of the loss functions. From this arises a polynomial-time algorithm with a near-optimal regret guarantee, with an analogous sample complexity bound for agnostic learning. Our algorithm is based on a novel filtering technique, which may be of independent interest: we convolve the time series with the eigenvectors of a certain Hankel matrix.

We address the problem of multi-class classification in the case where the number of classes is very large. We propose a double sampling strategy on top of a multi-class to binary reduction strategy, which transforms the original multi-class problem into a binary classification problem over pairs of examples. The aim of the sampling strategy is to overcome the curse of long-tailed class distributions exhibited in majority of large-scale multi-class classification problems and to reduce the number of pairs of examples in the expanded data. We show that this strategy does not alter the consistency of the empirical risk minimization principle defined over the double sample reduction. Experiments are carried out on DMOZ and Wikipedia collections with 10,000 to 100,000 classes where we show the efficiency of the proposed approach in terms of training and prediction time, memory consumption, and predictive performance with respect to state-of-the-art approaches.

Generative adversarial nets (GANs) are a promising technique for modeling a distribution from samples. It is however well known that GAN training suffers from instability due to the nature of its saddle point formulation. In this paper, we explore ways to tackle the instability problem by dualizing the discriminator. We start from linear discriminators in which case conjugate duality provides a mechanism to reformulate the saddle point objective into a maximization problem, such that both the generator and the discriminator of this'dualing GAN' act in concert. We then demonstrate how to extend this intuition to non-linear formulations. For GANs with linear discriminators our approach is able to remove the instability in training, while for GANs with nonlinear discriminators our approach provides an alternative to the commonly used GAN training algorithm.

Machine learning is now being used to make crucial decisions about people's lives. For nearly all of these decisions there is a risk that individuals of a certain race, gender, sexual orientation, or any other subpopulation are unfairly discriminated against. Our recent method has demonstrated how to use techniques from counterfactual inference to make predictions fair across different subpopulations. This method requires that one provides the causal model that generated the data at hand. In general, validating all causal implications of the model is not possible without further assumptions.

Importance sampling has become an indispensable strategy to speed up optimization algorithms for large-scale applications. Improved adaptive variants--using importance values defined by the complete gradient information which changes during optimization--enjoy favorable theoretical properties, but are typically computationally infeasible. In this paper we propose an efficient approximation of gradient-based sampling, which is based on safe bounds on the gradient. The proposed sampling distribution is (i) provably the best sampling with respect to the given bounds, (ii) always better than uniform sampling and fixed importance sampling and (iii) can efficiently be computed--in many applications at negligible extra cost. The proposed sampling scheme is generic and can easily be integrated into existing algorithms. In particular, we show that coordinate-descent (CD) and stochastic gradient descent (SGD) can enjoy significant a speed-up under the novel scheme. The proven efficiency of the proposed sampling is verified by extensive numerical testing.

We consider robust optimization problems, where the goal is to optimize in the worst case over a class of objective functions. We develop a reduction from robust improper optimization to stochastic optimization: given an oracle that returns -approximate solutions for distributions over objectives, we compute a distribution over solutions that is -approximate in the worst case. We show that derandomizing this solution is NP-hard in general, but can be done for a broad class of statistical learning tasks. We apply our results to robust neural network training and submodular optimization. We evaluate our approach experimentally on corrupted character classification and robust influence maximization in networks.

We propose and analyze a new estimator of the covariance matrix that admits strong theoretical guarantees under weak assumptions on the underlying distribution, such as existence of moments of only low order. While estimation of covariance matrices corresponding to sub-Gaussian distributions is well-understood, much less in known in the case of heavy-tailed data.

The Gaussian process state space model (GPSSM) is a non-linear dynamical system, where unknown transition and/or measurement mappings are described by GPs. Most research in GPSSMs has focussed on the state estimation problem, i.e., computing a posterior of the latent state given the model. However, the key challenge in GPSSMs has not been satisfactorily addressed yet: system identification, i.e., learning the model. To address this challenge, we impose a structured Gaussian variational posterior distribution over the latent states, which is parameterised by a recognition model in the form of a bi-directional recurrent neural network. Inference with this structure allows us to recover a posterior smoothed over sequences of data. We provide a practical algorithm for efficiently computing a lower bound on the marginal likelihood using the reparameterisation trick. This further allows for the use of arbitrary kernels within the GPSSM. We demonstrate that the learnt GPSSM can efficiently generate plausible future trajectories of the identified system after only observing a small number of episodes from the true system.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

The coordinate descent (CD) method is a classical optimization algorithm that has seen a revival of interest because of its competitive performance in machine learning applications. A number of recent papers provided convergence rate estimates for their deterministic (cyclic) and randomized variants that differ in the selection of update coordinates. These estimates suggest randomized coordinate descent (RCD) performs better than cyclic coordinate descent (CCD), although numerical experiments do not provide clear justification for this comparison. In this paper, we provide examples and more generally problem classes for which CCD (or CD with any deterministic order) is faster than RCD in terms of asymptotic worst-case convergence. Furthermore, we provide lower and upper bounds on the amount of improvement on the rate of CCD relative to RCD, which depends on the deterministic order used. We also provide a characterization of the best deterministic order (that leads to the maximum improvement in convergence rate) in terms of the combinatorial properties of the Hessian matrix of the objective function.