Probabilistic techniques are central to data analysis, but different approaches can be challenging to apply, combine, and compare. This paper introduces composable generative population models (CGPMs), a computational abstraction that extends directed graphical models and can be used to describe and compose a broad class of probabilistic data analysis techniques. Examples include discriminative machine learning, hierarchical Bayesian models, multivariate kernel methods, clustering algorithms, and arbitrary probabilistic programs. We demonstrate the integration of CGPMs into BayesDB, a probabilistic programming platform that can express data analysis tasks using a modeling definition language and structured query language. The practical value is illustrated in two ways. First, the paper describes an analysis on a database of Earth satellites, which identifies records that probably violate Kepler's Third Law by composing causal probabilistic programs with non-parametric Bayes in 50 lines of probabilistic code. Second, it reports the lines of code and accuracy of CGPMs compared with baseline solutions from standard machine learning libraries.

We develop efficient solution methods for a robust empirical risk minimization problem designed to give calibrated confidence intervals on performance and provide optimal tradeoffs between bias and variance. Our methods apply to distributionally robust optimization problems proposed by Ben-Tal et al., which put more weight on observations inducing high loss via a worst-case approach over a non-parametric uncertainty set on the underlying data distribution. Our algorithm solves the resulting minimax problems with nearly the same computational cost of stochastic gradient descent through the use of several carefully designed data structures. For a sample of size n, the per-iteration cost of our method scales as O(log n), which allows us to give optimality certificates that distributionally robust optimization provides at little extra cost compared to empirical risk minimization and stochastic gradient methods.

We study the stochastic optimization of canonical correlation analysis (CCA), whose objective is nonconvex and does not decouple over training samples. Although several stochastic gradient based optimization algorithms have been recently proposed to solve this problem, no global convergence guarantee was provided by any of them. Inspired by the alternating least squares/power iterations formulation of CCA, and the shift-and-invert preconditioning method for PCA, we propose two globally convergent meta-algorithms for CCA, both of which transform the original problem into sequences of least squares problems that need only be solved approximately. We instantiate the meta-algorithms with state-of-the-art SGD methods and obtain time complexities that significantly improve upon that of previous work. Experimental results demonstrate their superior performance.

Despite the success of kernel-based nonparametric methods, kernel selection still requires considerable expertise, and is often described as a "black art." We present a sophisticated method for automatically searching for an appropriate kernel from an infinite space of potential choices. Previous efforts in this direction have focused on traversing a kernel grammar, only examining the data via computation of marginal likelihood. Our proposed search method is based on Bayesian optimization in model space, where we reason about model evidence as a function to be maximized. We explicitly reason about the data distribution and how it induces similarity between potential model choices in terms of the explanations they can offer for observed data. In this light, we construct a novel kernel between models to explain a given dataset. Our method is capable of finding a model that explains a given dataset well without any human assistance, often with fewer computations of model evidence than previous approaches, a claim we demonstrate empirically.

We provide two fundamental results on the population (infinite-sample) likelihood function of Gaussian mixture models with $M \geq 3$ components. Our first main result shows that the population likelihood function has bad local maxima even in the special case of equally-weighted mixtures of well-separated and spherical Gaussians. We prove that the log-likelihood value of these bad local maxima can be arbitrarily worse than that of any global optimum, thereby resolving an open question of Srebro (2007). Our second main result shows that the EM algorithm (or a first-order variant of it) with random initialization will converge to bad critical points with probability at least $1-e^{-\Omega(M)}$. We further establish that a first-order variant of EM will not converge to strict saddle points almost surely, indicating that the poor performance of the first-order method can be attributed to the existence of bad local maxima rather than bad saddle points. Overall, our results highlight the necessity of careful initialization when using the EM algorithm in practice, even when applied in highly favorable settings.

Matrix completion, where we wish to recover a low rank matrix by observing a few entries from it, is a widely studied problem in both theory and practice with wide applications. Most of the provable algorithms so far on this problem have been restricted to the offline setting where they provide an estimate of the unknown matrix using all observations simultaneously. However, in many applications, the online version, where we observe one entry at a time and dynamically update our estimate, is more appealing. While existing algorithms are efficient for the offline setting, they could be highly inefficient for the online setting. In this paper, we propose the first provable, efficient online algorithm for matrix completion. Our algorithm starts from an initial estimate of the matrix and then performs non-convex stochastic gradient descent (SGD). After every observation, it performs a fast update involving only one row of two tall matrices, giving near linear total runtime. Our algorithm can be naturally used in the offline setting as well, where it gives competitive sample complexity and runtime to state of the art algorithms. Our proofs introduce a general framework to show that SGD updates tend to stay away from saddle surfaces and could be of broader interests to other non-convex problems.

We provide finite-sample analysis of a general framework for using k-nearest neighbor statistics to estimate functionals of a nonparametric continuous probability density, including entropies and divergences. Rather than plugging a consistent density estimate (which requires k as the sample size n) into the functional of interest, the estimators we consider fix k and perform a bias correction. This can be more efficient computationally, and, as we show, statistically, leading to faster convergence rates. Our framework unifies several previous estimators, for most of which ours are the first finite sample guarantees.

The weighted k-nearest neighbors algorithm is one of the most fundamental non-parametric methods in pattern recognition and machine learning. The question of setting the optimal number of neighbors as well as the optimal weights has received much attention throughout the years, nevertheless this problem seems to have remained unsettled. In this paper we offer a simple approach to locally weighted regression/classification, where we make the bias-variance tradeoff explicit. Our formulation enables us to phrase a notion of optimal weights, and to efficiently find these weights as well as the optimal number of neighbors efficiently and adaptively, for each data point whose value we wish to estimate. The applicability of our approach is demonstrated on several datasets, showing superior performance over standard locally weighted methods.

Optimal transport (OT) defines a powerful framework to compare probability distributions in a geometrically faithful way. However, the practical impact of OT is still limited because of its computational burden. We propose a new class of stochastic optimization algorithms to cope with large-scale problems routinely encountered in machine learning applications. These methods are able to manipulate arbitrary distributions (either discrete or continuous) by simply requiring to be able to draw samples from them, which is the typical setup in high-dimensional learning problems.

We analyze stochastic algorithms for optimizing nonconvex, nonsmooth finite-sum problems, where the nonsmooth part is convex. Surprisingly, unlike the smooth case, our knowledge of this fundamental problem is very limited. For example, it is not known whether the proximal stochastic gradient method with constant minibatch converges to a stationary point. To tackle this issue, we develop fast stochastic algorithms that provably converge to a stationary point for constant minibatches. Furthermore, using a variant of these algorithms, we obtain provably faster convergence than batch proximal gradient descent. Our results are based on the recent variance reduction techniques for convex optimization but with a novel analysis for handling nonconvex and nonsmooth functions. We also prove global linear convergence rate for an interesting subclass of nonsmooth nonconvex functions, which subsumes several recent works.