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 Statistical Learning


Peter Parker or Spiderman? Disambiguating Multiple Class Labels

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the supervised classification setting, during inference, deep networks typically make multiple predictions. For a pair of such predictions (that are in the top-k predictions), two distinct possibilities might occur. On the one hand, each of the two predictions might be primarily driven by two distinct sets of entities in the input. On the other hand, it is possible that there is a single entity or set of entities that is driving the prediction for both the classes in question. This latter case, in effect, corresponds to the network making two separate guesses about the identity of a single entity type. Clearly, both the guesses cannot be true, i.e. both the labels cannot be present in the input. Current techniques in interpretability research do not readily disambiguate these two cases, since they typically consider input attributions for one class label at a time. Here, we present a framework and method to do so, leveraging modern segmentation and input attribution techniques. Notably, our framework also provides a simple counterfactual "proof" of each case, which can be verified for the input on the model (i.e. without running the method again). We demonstrate that the method performs well for a number of samples from the ImageNet validation set and on multiple models.


Gaze estimation learning architecture as support to affective, social and cognitive studies in natural human-robot interaction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Gaze is a crucial social cue in any interacting scenario and drives many mechanisms of social cognition (joint and shared attention, predicting human intention, coordination tasks). Gaze direction is an indication of social and emotional functions affecting the way the emotions are perceived. Evidence shows that embodied humanoid robots endowing social abilities can be seen as sophisticated stimuli to unravel many mechanisms of human social cognition while increasing engagement and ecological validity. In this context, building a robotic perception system to automatically estimate the human gaze only relying on robot's sensors is still demanding. Main goal of the paper is to propose a learning robotic architecture estimating the human gaze direction in table-top scenarios without any external hardware. Table-top tasks are largely used in many studies in experimental psychology because they are suitable to implement numerous scenarios allowing agents to collaborate while maintaining a face-to-face interaction. Such an architecture can provide a valuable support in studies where external hardware might represent an obstacle to spontaneous human behaviour, especially in environments less controlled than the laboratory (e.g., in clinical settings). A novel dataset was also collected with the humanoid robot iCub, including images annotated from 24 participants in different gaze conditions.


Gradient Descent Efficiency Index

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Gradient descent is a widely used iterative algorithm for finding local minima in multivariate functions. However, the final iterations often either overshoot the minima or make minimal progress, making it challenging to determine an optimal stopping point. This study introduces a new efficiency metric, Ek, designed to quantify the effectiveness of each iteration. The proposed metric accounts for both the relative change in error and the stability of the loss function across iterations. This measure is particularly valuable in resource-constrained environments, where costs are closely tied to training time. Experimental validation across multiple datasets and models demonstrates that Ek provides valuable insights into the convergence behavior of gradient descent, complementing traditional performance metrics. The index has the potential to guide more informed decisions in the selection and tuning of optimization algorithms in machine learning applications and be used to compare the "effectiveness" of models relative to each other.


Water and Electricity Consumption Forecasting at an Educational Institution using Machine Learning models with Metaheuristic Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Educational institutions are essential for economic and social development. Budget cuts in Brazil in recent years have made it difficult to carry out their activities and projects. In the case of expenses with water and electricity, unexpected situations can occur, such as leaks and equipment failures, which make their management challenging. This study proposes a comparison between two machine learning models, Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Regression (SVR), for water and electricity consumption forecasting at the Federal Institute of Paran\'a-Campus Palmas, with a 12-month forecasting horizon, as well as evaluating the influence of the application of climatic variables as exogenous features. The data were collected over the past five years, combining details pertaining to invoices with exogenous and endogenous variables. The two models had their hyperpa-rameters optimized using the Genetic Algorithm (GA) to select the individuals with the best fitness to perform the forecasting with and without climatic variables. The absolute percentage errors and root mean squared error were used as performance measures to evaluate the forecasting accuracy. The results suggest that in forecasting water and electricity consumption over a 12-step horizon, the Random Forest model exhibited the most superior performance. The integration of climatic variables often led to diminished forecasting accuracy, resulting in higher errors. Both models still had certain difficulties in predicting water consumption, indicating that new studies with different models or variables are welcome.


Deep Concept Identification for Generative Design

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A generative design based on topology optimization provides diverse alternatives as entities in a computational model with a high design degree. However, as the diversity of the generated alternatives increases, the cognitive burden on designers to select the most appropriate alternatives also increases. Whereas the concept identification approach, which finds various categories of entities, is an effective means to structure alternatives, evaluation of their similarities is challenging due to shape diversity. To address this challenge, this study proposes a concept identification framework for generative design using deep learning (DL) techniques. One of the key abilities of DL is the automatic learning of different representations of a specific task. Deep concept identification finds various categories that provide insights into the mapping relationships between geometric properties and structural performance through representation learning using DL. The proposed framework generates diverse alternatives using a generative design technique, clusters the alternatives into several categories using a DL technique, and arranges these categories for design practice using a classification model. This study demonstrates its fundamental capabilities by implementing variational deep embedding, a generative and clustering model based on the DL paradigm, and logistic regression as a classification model. A simplified design problem of a two-dimensional bridge structure is applied as a case study to validate the proposed framework. Although designers are required to determine the viewing aspect level by setting the number of concepts, this implementation presents the identified concepts and their relationships in the form of a decision tree based on a specified level.


Statistical Inference in Classification of High-dimensional Gaussian Mixture

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider the classification problem of a high-dimensional mixture of two Gaussians with general covariance matrices. Using the replica method from statistical physics, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of a general class of regularized convex classifiers in the high-dimensional limit, where both the sample size $n$ and the dimension $p$ approach infinity while their ratio $\alpha=n/p$ remains fixed. Our focus is on the generalization error and variable selection properties of the estimators. Specifically, based on the distributional limit of the classifier, we construct a de-biased estimator to perform variable selection through an appropriate hypothesis testing procedure. Using $L_1$-regularized logistic regression as an example, we conducted extensive computational experiments to confirm that our analytical findings are consistent with numerical simulations in finite-sized systems. We also explore the influence of the covariance structure on the performance of the de-biased estimator.


Prediction of Final Phosphorus Content of Steel in a Scrap-Based Electric Arc Furnace Using Artificial Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The scrap-based electric arc furnace process is expected to capture a significant share of the steel market in the future due to its potential for reducing environmental impacts through steel recycling. However, managing impurities, particularly phosphorus, remains a challenge. This study aims to develop a machine learning model to estimate the steel phosphorus content at the end of the process based on input parameters. Data were collected over two years from a steel plant, focusing on the chemical composition and weight of the scrap, the volume of oxygen injected, and process duration. After preprocessing the data, several machine learning models were evaluated, with the artificial neural network (ANN) emerging as the most effective. The best ANN model included four hidden layers. The model was trained for 500 epochs with a batch size of 50. The best model achieves a mean square error (MSE) of 0.000016, a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.0049998, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 99.96%, and a correlation coefficient (r) of 99.98%. Notably, the model achieved a 100% hit rate for predicting phosphorus content within +-0.001 wt% (+-10 ppm). These results demonstrate that the optimized ANN model offers accurate predictions for the steel final phosphorus content.


2D-DPO: Scaling Direct Preference Optimization with 2-Dimensional Supervision

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advancements in Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) have significantly enhanced the alignment of Large Language Models (LLMs) with human preferences, owing to its simplicity and effectiveness. However, existing methods typically optimize a scalar score or ranking reward, thereby overlooking the multi-dimensional nature of human preferences. In this work, we propose to extend the preference of DPO to two dimensions: segments and aspects. We first introduce a 2D supervision dataset called HelpSteer-2D. For the segment dimension, we divide the response into sentences and assign scores to each segment. For the aspect dimension, we meticulously design several criteria covering the response quality rubrics. With the 2-dimensional signals as feedback, we develop a 2D-DPO framework, decomposing the overall objective into multi-segment and multi-aspect objectives. Extensive experiments on popular benchmarks demonstrate that 2D-DPO performs better than methods that optimize for scalar or 1-dimensional preferences.


iCost: A Novel Instance Complexity Based Cost-Sensitive Learning Framework

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Class imbalance in data presents significant challenges for classification tasks. It is fairly common and requires careful handling to obtain desirable performance. Traditional classification algorithms become biased toward the majority class. One way to alleviate the scenario is to make the classifiers cost-sensitive. This is achieved by assigning a higher misclassification cost to minority-class instances. One issue with this implementation is that all the minority-class instances are treated equally, and assigned with the same penalty value. However, the learning difficulties of all the instances are not the same. Instances that are located in the overlapping region or near the decision boundary are harder to classify, whereas those further away are easier. Without taking into consideration the instance complexity and naively weighting all the minority-class samples uniformly, results in an unwarranted bias and consequently, a higher number of misclassifications of the majority-class instances. This is undesirable and to overcome the situation, we propose a novel instance complexity-based cost-sensitive approach (termed 'iCost') in this study. We first categorize all the minority-class instances based on their difficulty level and then the instances are penalized accordingly. This ensures a more equitable instance weighting and prevents excessive penalization. The performance of the proposed approach is tested on 65 binary and 10 multiclass imbalanced datasets against the traditional cost-sensitive learning frameworks. A significant improvement in performance has been observed, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed strategy.


Evolving Voices Based on Temporal Poisson Factorisation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The world is evolving and so is the vocabulary used to discuss topics in speech. Analysing political speech data from more than 30 years requires the use of flexible topic models to uncover the latent topics and their change in prevalence over time as well as the change in the vocabulary of the topics. We propose the temporal Poisson factorisation (TPF) model as an extension to the Poisson factorisation model to model sparse count data matrices obtained based on the bag-of-words assumption from text documents with time stamps. We discuss and empirically compare different model specifications for the time-varying latent variables consisting either of a flexible auto-regressive structure of order one or a random walk. Estimation is based on variational inference where we consider a combination of coordinate ascent updates with automatic differentiation using batching of documents. Suitable variational families are proposed to ease inference. We compare results obtained using independent univariate variational distributions for the time-varying latent variables to those obtained with a multivariate variant. We discuss in detail the results of the TPF model when analysing speeches from 18 sessions in the U.S. Senate (1981-2016).